G’day from Wimbledon, 🌱🎾
Sports are supposed to be linear. As the years pass by, athletes get stronger, run faster, and hit the ball harder… you get the picture.
Something has happened to serve speed at Wimbledon. It is getting slower instead of faster.
Wimbledon is the only Grand Slam that provides historical serve speed data. It is the only place to study this specific aspect of the game. IBM started collecting point-by-point statistics and breaking down all points in detail in 2004, so that’s where the story begins. Nineteen years of serve data = a really solid data set.
As a point of demarcation, I specifically looked at the post-covid years of 2021, 2022 and what we have achieved in the first three days of 2023. Those are the recent years in yellow.
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MEN: AVERAGE 1ST SERVE SPEED (2004-2023)
The first thing to take note of is that this data set exists in a range of just three miles per hour, from 115.1 mph to 118.1 mph. That’s not a lot, but it certainly tells a compelling story over almost two decades.
If we are led to believe that we are on a never-ending improvement curve, you would expect Wimbledon 2023 to have the fastest average through the first couple of days since 2004. Well, it’s not in first place. It’s actually not even in the Top 10.
You have to go all the way back to 2005 to find the fastest year. It is the only year in the data set to break the 118 mph average. The three post-covid years are in 11th, 14th, and 15th places. Certainly not setting the world on fire.
MEN: AVERAGE 2ND SERVE SPEED (2004-2023)
This is even more shocking than the average first-serve speed. This year ranked second last in average second serve speed at 95.4 mph.
In eleven of the years, the average second serve speed was 97 mph or higher. The three post-covid years (including this year) all failed to break the 97 mph barrier. Things are definitely slowing down at SW19. This data set covers 4.4 mph, which is a little more than first serves.
WOMEN: AVERAGE 1ST SERVE SPEED (2004-2023)
This is the best data set for serve speed post-covid. 2021 and 2022 did not make the fastest five, but they do come in 6th and 7th.
This year is considerably slower at 99.0 mph and only makes 14th place on the list. The data set covers only 2.6 mph.
WOMEN: AVERAGE 2ND SERVE SPEED (2004-2023)
This is the data set where the recent average serve speed gets crushed the most.
This year is dead last in average 2nd serve speed from the ladies since 2004. And last year (2022) is second last! What in the world is going on with serves slowing down over time rather than speeding up? this data set is 3.5 mph.
SUMMARY
There are a few different ways to interpret this data, and I am sure there will be a few that I have not yet considered. It’s important to note that serve speed is measured right off the racket at its fastest point. So we can rule out anything with the court surface slowing it down.
1: The Balls
There is a very real possibility that tennis balls are not pressurized as much as they used to be. Quite possibly, they have changed over time in a way that makes it harder to hit it harder.
Secondly, the balls have more rubber in them than they used to. That makes them heavier and harder to crush. It also makes for more wrist and elbow injuries. Players such as Stefanos Tsitsipas, Sebastian Korda and Jenson Brooksby – and others – have had wrist and elbow issues. Possibly the heavier ball? Just a question…
2: The Returner
We are in the “Golden Age of the Returner.” The best players in the world are not the biggest servers. They are the most solid returners. The premium in today’s game has shifted to the returning side of the equation. So, therefore, the server feels the pressure to put more first serves in the court to reduce exposure to their second serve.
3: Serve Targets
This is related to the line item above. Because returners are dominating our sport, the best way to counter them is to not try and hit through them with more power but to hit around them with more precision. Hitting spots may be more important than raw miles per hour.
4: The Strings
A theory that is worth discussing is that modern strings help players get a lot of spin on the ball. That is particularly relevant to forehands and backhands, but it may also be in play here with serves – particularly 2nd serves. Instead of players hitting a faster slice serve at Wimbledon like in years past, the possibility exists that players are hitting heavier kick serves here that slows the ball down. The heavy kick serve is from hard courts and clay courts, and it may be infecting grass courts significantly as well.
If you have any other ideas, please add them to the comments section at the bottom of this page, and I will add them to this section.
All the best,
Craig