Novak Djokovic hits a forehand playing percentage tennis

Wednesday, 24 May 2017 / Published in ATP Tour

Percentage Tennis: The Most Important Number In Tennis

So, you want to be #1 in tennis? Here’s your formula…

Hint: It has to do with percentage tennis as you’ve never heard before.

I like to reverse-engineer tennis coaching.

I like to start at the end to know all that I can about the destination I am trying to get to. I like to start with a thorough investigation of the final result. It helps you sail your ship in the right direction, instead of around and around in the ocean – lost at sea.

Imagine being No. 1 in the world… just imagine what that would be like. There have only been 26 players ranked No. 1 in the world in the Open era. It’s an insanely difficult thing to accomplish!

The Average Percentage of Tennis Points Won

From 1991-2016 the average percent of points won in a season for the No. 1 player in the world is just 55%. That advantage does not seem big enough, especially because players that end up No. 1 in the world win around 90% of their matches. But it is. Tennis is a game of small margins, played over great distances. Here’s an example from 2016.

Win Percentage of Points by the World #1

2016 No. 1 = Andy Murray

Matches Won = 90% (78-9)
Points Won = 55% (6987/12814)
Murray finished No. 1 and lost 5,827 points… think about that for a minute or two.

Why is it SO important to know these numbers? Well, for a multitude of reasons, but here’s the one I like the most…

How To Teach Percentage Tennis

Imagine a promising 12-year-old boy or girl.

They simply love tennis! It’s fun for them, they enjoy competing, they love to run around, and they love hanging with their tennis buddies. But, here’s the deal.

When they win the point, they are happy.
When they lose the point, they are sad.

They try and win every point they play. They want to win every point they play. They want perfection. There’s a problem…

tennis is not a game of perfection
tennis is a game of percentages

Once kids learn that it’s OKAY to lose 45% of all points they play, they get off the “happy/sad” rollercoaster that destroys them mentally between the points.

They learn percentage tennis, and that competition means losing a lot of points. They learn to lose a point and say to themselves “It’s okay. That’s just one of the 45%.”

They freak out less. They cry less. They stay in our sport longer.

It’s Good To Lose 45% of Tennis Points

Here’s a BIG PICTURE statistic for you. Do you know what the real difference is between winning and losing? Here it is…

2016 Australian Open Men’s Draw

Match Winners = Won 10,500 points (55%)
Match Losers = Lost 8740 points (45%)

That’s why 55% is the most important number in tennis. It represents the pinnacle of our sport, and it also represents the real difference between winning and losing. Trying to truly understand tennis without this number is impossible.

Average Win Percentage of Points Over 25 Years

Here’s the average amount of points won by the No.1 player in the world from 1991-2016.

55% = 12
54% = 7
53% = 4
56% = 3
TOTAL = 26
AVERAGE = 55%

As you can see, you can actually become No. 1 in the world and win just 53% of total points for the season. It’s incredible to think that global domination is predicated on such a small margin.

Here’s how the current Top 10 are performing (as of May 15, 2017)

Ranking	Player	Points Won/Total	Win Percentage
1	Andy Murray	1738/3244)	53.6%
2	Novak Djokovic	(1500/2832)	53.0%
3	Stan Wawrinka	(1857/3603)	51.5%
4	Roger Federer	(1921/3526)	54.5%
5	Rafael Nadal	(2711/4927)	55.0%
6	Milos Raonic	(1426/2705)	52.7%
7	Marin Cilic	(1611/3072)	52.4%
8	Kei Nishikori	(1793/3402)	52.7%
9	Dominic Thiem	(2485/4784)	51.9%
10	David Goffin	(2616/5008)	52.2%
-	-	AVERAGE	53.0%

You can see just how tough it is to find separation at the top of the game. Everything is so close. That’s why knowing winning patterns of play and thinking about percentage tennis is so important.

Click HERE to read my recent ATP World Tour analysis, including the full breakdown of players ranked No. 1 from 1991 to 2016.

For a deeper analysis of the massive impact rally length has on winning a match, I highly recommend THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. Click HERE for more information about this tennis strategy product, focused on the importance of the start of the rally.

All the best,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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