Friday, 08 June 2018 / Published in ATP Tour

The First 4 Shots WILL Decide The Men’s Semi-Finals

For a deeper analysis of the massive impact the length of the rally has on winning a match, I highly recommend THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. Click HERE for more information about this tennis strategy product, focused on the importance of the start of the rally.

For a 20% discount, enter coupon code RG2018 at checkout. It’s good during the tournament.

The First 4 Shots – Video

Your eyes are naturally drawn to the longer, more spectacular rallies. Forget about them.

Side-to-side, sliding rallies always bring the crowd to their feet on Court Philippe Chatrier. These lactic-acid inducing baseline exchanges are where we think players naturally craft their advantages. It’s not. It’s really in the first four shots of a rally. This is where winning really happens – at ALL levels of our game. That means the first two times you touch the ball are more important than anything that follows.

We have two outstanding semi-finals today at Roland Garros. They are:

Rafael Nadal vs Juan Martin del Potro
Marco Cecchinato v Dominic Thiem

Let’s take a look at Rafa first.

He has played five matches and only dropped one set. Extremely dominant.

Has he won more points than his opponent in the 0-4 shot rally length in each match? YES.

Has he won more points than his opponent in the 5-8 shot rally length in each match? NO.
He lost this rally length to Diego Schwartzman 36-33.

Has he won more points than his opponent in the 9+ shot rally length in each match? NO.
He lost this rally length 14-11 to Simone Bolelli and lost it again 9-7 to Richard Gasquet.

What is consistent with all four players is that they win the majority of their points in 0-4 first, then 5-8, and lastly 9+.

Rally Length (Points Played)

Here’s the breakdown for each player, and a combined total in their run to the semis.

Rafael Nadal

0-4 = 55%
5-8 = 28%
9+ = 17%

Juan Martin del Potro

0-4 = 71%
5-8 = 19%
9+ = 10%

Marco Cecchinato (data only available for his last 3 matches)

0-4 = 66%
5-8 = 24%
9+ = 10%

Dominic Thiem

0-4 = 65%
5-8 = 24%
9+ = 11%

ALL 4 COMBINED

0-4 = 64%
5-8 = 24%
9+ = 12%

Let all that sink in for a minute. Take your time. Go grab an iced coffee and a blueberry muffin, and then really understand the significance of this data. Here are three takeaways.

On CLAY, the number one rally length for all four semi-finalists is the 0-4 shot rally length. Touching the ball a maximum of just two times happens more than anything else – by a long shot.
On CLAY, the 0-4 rally length for the four semi-finalists combined is 64%. Everything else that happens after a fifth shot goes in the court is just 36%. Night and day.
On CLAY, only 12% of points for these guys make it to the 9+ rally length. You remember all of these spectacular points, but they happen only around one in 10 times. Long rallies are not nearly as significant as short rallies!

Win/Loss Ratio

Now let’s take a look at where these four players craft their advantage. They are all going to win and lose points in each of the three rally lengths, but by how much? That’s easy to figure out. We simply add all the points they won in each rally length, then subtract the points they lost, and let’s see the overall performance. Here it is.

Rafael Nadal +/-

0-4 = 60
5-8 = 56
9+ = 29

Juan Martin del Potro +/-

0-4 = 66
5-8 = 34
9+ = 10

Marco Cecchinato +/- (data only available for his last 3 matches)

0-4 = 22
5-8 = 7
9+ = 4

Dominic Thiem +/-

0-4 = 74
5-8 = 33
9+ = 21

ALL 4 COMBINED +/-

0-4 = 222 (54%)
5-8 = 130 (31%)
9+ = 64 (15%)

Here’s three take-aways from this insightful data.

On CLAY, all four players combined have found more than half (54%) of their overall advantage in the 0-4 rally length.
On CLAY, for all four players combined, they have only found 15% of their overall advantage in the longer points.
On CLAY, all four players combined found their healthiest (largest) win loss advantage in the 0-4 shot rally length.

SUMMARY (ALSO FOR YOUR OWN GAME).

When you watch the semi-finals later today, don’t put so much emphasis on the longer rallies. They will be fun to watch, and will bring the frenzied French fans to their feet, but winning the shorter rallies in the 0-4 shot range will matter more to the final outcome.
This data MUST drive the practice court. As a general rule, we spend 90% of our practice time working in the 9+ shot range. We put too much of a premium on groundstroke consistency. It’s overkill.
The key shots in the 0-4 shot range are the serve and the return. Make sure you are giving these two shots all the attention they deserve on your practice court.

Let’s hope for some outstanding tennis this afternon!

Au revoir,

Craig

For a deeper analysis of the massive impact the length of the rally has on winning a match, I highly recommend THE FIRST 4 SHOTS.

Click HERE for more information about this tennis strategy product, focused on the importance of the start of the rally.

For a 20% discount, enter coupon code RG2018 at checkout. It’s good during the tournament.

The First 4 Shots – Video

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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The First 4 Shots WILL Decide The Men’s Semi-Finals

The First 4 Shots – Video

The First 4 Shots – Video