Tuesday, 15 August 2017 / Published in ATP Tour

Stop Guessing. Start Knowing.

Let data drive your practice court.

In just under two weeks, GAMEPLAN will be released, providing big data for little players.

Well, we are also looking at big players too! The focus is on the player development pathway, with the analysis including specific metrics for the the following 10 levels for men and women:

U12
U14
U16
U18
College: lines 5&6
College: lines 3&4
College: lines 1&2
Challenger
Top 100
Top 10

Yesterday I sent an email out to everyone who subscribes to my Blog. We identified that MEN through 4 Grand Slams averaged making 61% of their first serves. The question was about boys and girls in Under 14’s. What percentage did they average making?

The secret sauce of GAMEPLAN is two-fold.

It provides big data to levels of play that have never been analyzed like this before.
The research identifies just how dynamic data can be. Sometimes it moves around a lot between levels. Very reactive. And sometimes it hardly changes as you move from juniors to college to pro.

Sometimes, tennis is simply tennis. It does not matter if two professional players are competing, or two 14 year olds, or two llamas. The way our sport is structured with a serve, return, and then a rally (if we get that far) sometimes yields very similar results right across the board.

WHAT YOU SAID…

Thanks to the dozens of people who responded to my email yesterday, answering the question about what percentage the Under 14 boys and girls averaged making with their first serve compared to the 61% for professional men.

Here’s a cross section of the replies.

Rodney – Much higher as they do not take as many risks.
Stephen – My guess it’s 65 percent. Can’t wait to see.
Olivia – I think it’s a lot less than 61%. I see it especially with the 16’s and 18’s juniors too.
Barbara – I think it will be the same.
David – My guess 43% boys and 46% girls.
Kris – I’m going to say boys lower, girls higher.
PB – Boys 58%. Girls 52%.
Allan – I think the average drops to around 50% for boys and girls.
Michael – I think it should be pretty much the same, mate.
Thiago – Just guessing… but I would say the boys is lower, because of technique, and the girls higher, because they don’t go for too much.
Mitchell – My initial reaction is the girls percentages may be higher. My rationale is the boys may be trying for more and therefore may be taking more chances. I suspect the boys will be lower than the ATP and the girls higher than ATP.
Paul – Our son (11yo in 2 weeks) is currently playing in an Asian Tennis Federation (ATF) B14s event in Bangkok (ATF is Asia’s version of TennisEurope regional tournaments). He won his R1 match yesterday 3 & 2. I charted his match as usual. After seeing your email I checked his first serve stats – the numbers were: Points on Serve 57. 1st serves in 35 (61.4%). 1st serves won 26 (74.3%). These numbers are pretty much typical for him across his match-play at this level.

THE ANSWER

Data Set

Boys 14’s data = 22,165 points
Girls 14’s data = 23,175 points

First serve percentage is a big deal in our sport. If you make too little (around 50%) you are not maximizing one of the biggest weapons you have. If you make too many (around 70%), you surely are not hitting it big enough. The pros are at 61% for a reason. Here’s the answer for the 14’s.

Professional MEN = 61%
Under 14 BOYS = 61%
Under 14 GIRLS = 61%

They. Are. All. The. Same… Pretty amazing.

So here are three take-aways.

Professional data can be a benchmark, can be a guide, can be insightful and useful for junior tennis. The pro game is relevant to the junior game, although the speed at which things happen is different.
Some aspects of our game get “cemented” early on. It is critical to make sure young players are fundamentally sound with their technique and with tactics. If not, they will struggle right through the pathway.
Look at the email responses above. The guesses were all over the map. That’s about to change. Baseball doesn’t guess. Football doesn’t guess. Tennis is not going to guess anymore either. Once we replace guesswork with facts, we can optimize the practice court, and guide young players along a more productive pathway.

Congratulations to Barbara and Michael for nailing it!

GAMEPLAN will be available for purchase on Monday, August 28. It is $149.95, but will be discounted 20% during the first week (so, $119.96) along with the other seven Brain Game Tennis strategy products.

Cheers!

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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