Saturday, 27 April 2024 / Published in Carlos Alcaraz, Madrid, Rally Length

Single Digit Rallies Dominate Double Digit Rallies

Clay court tennis is dominated by single-digit rallies over double-digit rallies.

By a country mile. 🏃‍♂️

Carlos Alcaraz took his first step towards a three-peat at the Madrid Masters 1000 by defeating Alexander Shevchenko 6-2, 6-1 in an hour and some change on Thursday. It’s important to note that Alcaraz did not play in Monte Carlo or Barcelona, so this was his first clay court match of the season.

Let’s take a look at that match as well as data points from his successful run to the title in 2023.

1: SINGLE DIGIT / DOUBLE-DIGIT RALLIES

Alcaraz

Single-digit rallies won = 49 (83%)
Double-digit rallies won = 10 (17%)
Total Points Won = 59

Shevchenko

Single-digit rallies won = 32 (94%)
Double-digit rallies won = 2 (6%)
Total Points Won = 34

Match

Single-digit rallies = 81 (87%)
Double-digit rallies = 12 (13%)
Total Points Won = 93

The paradigm of clay court tennis is all about grinding and suffering, but match data does not support this. Let’s take a look back at Alcaraz’s six matches in Madrid last year on the way to taking the title.

2023 Madrid: Rally Length In Alcaraz Matches

This is the reality of taking a title on clay. Alcaraz won 94% of his points in Madrid last year in single-digit rallies. It wasn’t about grinding. It wasn’t about patience and shot tolerance and suffering. Only 28 points out of 442 reached double digits. Opponents were right in the same ballpark, winning 92% of their points in single-digit rallies.

This data is so important to understand because the global clay-court paradigm is essentially the exact opposite. You would think that a significant number of rallies were in double digits—maybe a quarter of points? Maybe even half?

From studying rally length for a decade, one thing has clearly stood out to me. We remember the long rallies because they are more entertaining, more exciting, and, we think, more impactful. We tend to dispatch short rallies to short term memory, and we forget (dismiss) return errors and Serve +1 errors as a failure to reach the promised land of the long rally. It’s simply not the case.

If you are looking to improve your clay court game, remember these numbers when you go to organize your practice court. If winning matches means a lot to you, you still need to primarily focus on the first four shots of the point. This is where the rubber meets the road.

IMPROVE YOUR BASELINE GAME

Webinar 7: Baseline Strategy & Patterns

Webinar 10: Primary & Secondary Patterns

Webinar 22: Run Around Forehands

Webinar 24: Andre Agassi Patterns Of Play

Webinar 35: Backhand Cage

FREE Webinar: 2022 US Open Alcaraz v Sinner

2: RALLY HEIGHT

It’s fascinating to see that Alcaraz was getting the ball up more against every opponent in Madrid in 2023 than they were against him.

Alcaraz averaged making contact with his groundstrokes 1.08 metres above the ground, while his opponents were 24 cm higher at 1.22 metres. In all six matches, Alcaraz used height as a weapon more than his opponents did against him. The biggest gap was 29 cm higher against Grigor Dimitrov, and the smallest margin was just seven cm against Borna Coric.

It’s important to note that Madrid is 655 metres (2149 feet) above sea level and has the fastest clay-court playing conditions on the pro tour. Because of the altitude, the ball definitely gets through the court faster in Madrid than in other clay court ATP Masters 1000 cities such as Monte Carlo and Rome.

But Alcaraz was still able to use height as a key weapon to get the ball up above the strike zone of his opponents. That’s definitely something you want to copy for your own game on clay.

3: DISTANCE RUN

We see this data being presented more and more from Hawk-Eye, but I really don’t know what to make of it.

On average, Alcaraz ran slightly more in Madrid last year than his opponents. I don’t know if that is a good or bad thing or just a reflection of the match-ups. A big data set needs to be studied to uncover whether match winners generally run less, more, or about the same as their opponents.

4: FOREHANDS / BACKHANDS

Alcaraz and his opponents hit slightly more forehands versus backhands through the six matches.

It’s interesting to see the variation match-to-match in the total number of forehands vs. backhands. The only match in which Alcaraz hit more backhands than forehands was against Coric—by two shots. Alcaraz hit 36 more forehands than backhands against Dimitrov.

In general, players are trying to build the point through the Ad court trying to match up their run-around forehand against the opponent’s less potent (but more consistent) backhand. When they find the right ball, the goal is to unload to the vacant Deuce court. In general, when players hit more backhands than forehands in a match, that dynamic is being forced upon them. It’s certainly not the primary goal, as your primary baseline weapon is being put to sleep.

5: FOREHAND & BACKHAND SPEED

Remember, Alcaraz shaped the ball (height and spin) more than his opponents in all six matches.

Forehand & Backhand Speed (km/h)

We are probably seeing the trade-off of extra height and spin here as his opponents narrowly edged him in average speed off both the forehand and backhand wings. Opponents averaged four km/h faster with forehands and backhands. Faster is not always superior, especially on clay. I am sure Alcaraz got the mix right by trading off a little bit of power to get the ball up higher on his opponents.

SUMMARY

These data points are all part of the jigsaw puzzle that helps us understand the inner workings of Alcaraz’s game in Madrid. He has already won the title there twice and is poised to add a third consecutive title in his homeland.

Here are five take-aways for your own game.

Shaping the ball is an ideal way to start the point. Chase depth over direction early on.
Height + spin = depth. Push your opponent back initially in the point to be able to step forward and control later in the point.
Find the right mix with power, height, and spin. Some balls should be dispatched with speed, while others are much more about getting the ball up and making the opponent uncomfortable out of their strike zone.
Always look to hit more forehands than backhands from the back of the court. Your run-around forehand is especially important to wrestle control of baseline exchanges.
Your training focus should be dominated more by single-digit rallies than double-digit rallies. If you are working on refining your technique, you will have to hit thousands of balls to improve it. But also remember that tennis is a “first strike” sport, and match winners greatly outperform match losers in the first four shots.

Cheers,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Single Digit Rallies Dominate Double Digit Rallies