Wednesday, 17 February 2021 / Published in Australian Open

Serena v Osaka – Where Will They Serve?

G’day,

The blockbuster Australian Open semi-final between Serena Williams and Naomi Osaka will be starting shortly. In case you hitched a ride to Mars on the Perseverance rover and missed the lead up to this match, I have got both Serena’s and Naomi’s serve location through their first five matches. This will give you something to track during the match. Will each player stick to their preferred patterns that got them to the semi, or will they try and switch patterns to surprise their opponents?

Maybe you should have this analysis open and handy during the match so you can predict where each player will serve.

SERENA WILLIAMS SERVE PATTERNS

Serena Unreturned Serves

1st Serve Deuce Ct = 51% (42/82)
1st Serve Ad Ct = 42% (38/90)
2nd Serve Deuce Ct = 16% (11/67)
2nd Serve Ad Ct = 18% (9/51)

Serena has been crushing 1st serves in the Deuce Ct so far this tournament, with more than half of them (51%) being unreturned (ace or return error). Serena has served mainly out wide so far in the tournament in the Deuce court, especially in her last two matches against Sabalenka and Halep.

Serena – 1st Serve Deuce Ct

The primary location is the wide slice. Serena wants to pull her opponent off the court to begin the point. Look for the T serve when ahead in the score and to surprise.

Serena – 1st Serve Ad Ct

Serena has been going mainly down the T during the tournament, but those numbers have evened out a lot in the last two matches.

Serena – 2nd Serve Deuce Ct

It’s interesting that Serena has only hit one 2nd serve wide in the Deuce court for the whole tournament. Most have been directed at the backhand jam location.

Serena – 2dd Serve Ad Ct

Serena is going to hit a lot of heavy kick serves wide. The goal is to pull Naomi off the court to then attack the vacant Deuce court on the next shot.

NAOMI OSAKA SERVE PATTERNS

Osaka Unreturned Serves

1st Serve Deuce Ct = 50% (49/98)
1st Serve Ad Ct = 41% (29/70)
2nd Serve Deuce Ct = 32% (19/60)
2nd Serve Ad Ct = 23% (17/73)

The first serve unreturned numbers for both Serena and Naomi are basically identical. Serena is 51% in the Deuce court with 1st serves, and Naomi is 50%. Serena is 42% in the Ad court with first serves and Naomi is 41%. Can’t get much more even than that!!!

The big difference is 2nd serves. Naomi is at 32% and 23% unreturned on 2nd serves, while Serena is at 16% and 18%. This could shape as a key battleground in the match. Getting a few extra free points on 2nd serves helps A LOT!

Naomi – 1st Serve Deuce Ct

The T serve in the Deuce court is definitely the primary location in every match Naomi has played. Look for it there on big points v Serena.

Naomi – 1st Serve Ad Ct

T is the “go-to” serve in the Ad court as well – almost twice as much as the wide serve. Look for the T when the score gets tight.

Naomi – 2nd Serve Deuce Ct

Lots of body backhand serves so far, and also a few to the T. You can’t be too predictable to Serena otherwise she will step in and crush the return.

Naomi – 2nd Serve Ad Ct

Lots of body backhand serves here as well. There is some mix to the corners to keep opponents guessing. The mix will be crucial to stop Serena from locking in on returns.

SUMMARY

It’s fun to know favorite serve locations before the match starts. As I mentioned earlier, you can use these numbers as a guide as you follow along watching the match to see if each player is sticking to the patterns that got them to the semi-finals or if they feel the need to try and switch things up to get an advantage.

Let’s hope for a great match! Good luck ladies!

Cheers,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

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AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

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Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Serena v Osaka – Where Will They Serve?

G’day,

SUMMARY