Friday, 23 February 2018 / Published in ATP Tour

ONLY 222 Players in 28 years have achieved this…

The rough reality of the second serve.

There are four main elements to a point in tennis.

Serve
Return
Rally
Approach

When we direct our focus to serving, we naturally feel like we are looking at instant offense. Instant winning percentages all-round. It’s simply not so.

The first serve is a weapon at every level of our sport – all the way from Under 12s to the pro tour. The speed of the first serve is the primary reason.

Below are the average speed speeds for the men and women that reached the quarter-finals of the 2018 Australian Open. The last column highlights the difference in average speed between the first and second serves.

2018 Australian Open: MEN Quarter Finalists: Average Serve Speeds

#	Player	1st Serve	2nd Serve	Difference
1	T. Sandgren	111mph	87mph	24mph
7	G. Dimitrov	117mph	93mph	24mph
2	M. Cilic	117mph	93mph	24mph
4	H. Chung	112mph	89mph	23mph
5	T. Berdych	119mph	96mph	23mph
3	R. Federer	117mph	99mph	18mph
6	K. Edmund	114mph	97mph	17mph
8	R. Nadal	112mph	95mph	17mph
-	AVERAGE	115mph	94mph	21mph

2018 Australian Open: WOMEN Quarter Finalists: Average Serve Speeds

#	Player	1st Serve	2nd Serve	Difference
1	E. Svitolina	101mph	77mph	24mph
2	C. Wozniacki	100mph	80mph	20mph
3	M. Keys	103mph	84mph	19mph
4	E. Mertens	100mph	83mph	17mph
5	Ka. Pliskova	103mph	87mph	16mph
6	S. Halep	95mph	80mph	15mph
7	C. Suarez Navarro	94mph	80mph	14mph
8	A. Kerber	91mph	78mph	13mph
-	AVERAGE	98mph	81mph	17mph

MEN: 2018 Australian Open

So let’s try and draw a straight line between serve speed and win percentage.

1st Serve

Average 1st Serve Win % = 72%
Last 8 Average 1st Serve Speed = 115mph

2nd Serve

Average 2nd Serve Win % = 49%
Last 8 Average 2nd Serve Speed = 94mph

Difference

Average Win Percentage drops from 72% to 49% (23 percentage points)
Average Serve Speed drops from 115mph to 94mph (21mph)

Summary

Second serves are a liability – winning less than 50% on average. The win percentage dropped 23 percentage points, while the average speed dropped 21mph. Two different serves. Two vastly different speeds. Two win percentages that don’t look anything like the other.

WOMEN: 2018 Australian Open

1st Serve

Average 1st Serve Win % = 64%
Last 8 Average 1st Serve Speed = 98mph

2nd Serve

Average 2nd Serve Win % = 46%
Last 8 Average 2nd Serve Speed = 81mph

Difference

Average Win Percentage drops from 64% to 46% (18 percentage points)
Average Serve Speed drops from 98mph to 81mph (19mph)

Summary

It’s the same story with the women. First serves are an asset. Second serves are a liability. An 18 percentage point drop in win percentage courtesy of an average 19mph drop in speed.

Yes, there are other factors involved, such as targets. First serve targets are much more to the corners, while second serves hardly ever go to the corners. No penalty if you miss the first serve. Big penalty if you miss a second.

History is not kind to the 2nd serve

Statistics in tennis were first recorded in 1991. Since then – for the past 28 years – there have only been 222 men that have averaged a winning percentage (50.1%+) on their 2nd serves. Thousands upon thousands of the best players on the planet have tried and failed to win more points than they lose behind their second serves.

Here are the 10 best all-time on the ATP Tour.

Career Leaders: Top 10 2nd Serve Points Won

#	Player	2nd Serve % Won
1	R. Nadal	57.16%
2	R. Federer	56.70%
3	J. Isner	56.01%
4	A. Roddick	55.95%
5	N. Djokovic	55.35%
6	W. Arthurs	54.63%
7	M. Raonic	54.60%
8	J.C. Ferrero	54.22%
9	A. Agassi	53.98%
10	S. Wawrinka	53.72%
-	AVERAGE	55.23%

It’s amazing to think the best 10 EVER only managed to win 55% of their second serve points. To learn more, click HERE to read my recent ATP Infosys analysis focused on 2nd serves.

Five Drills

Here are five drills to help you win more 2nd serve points.

TARGET: Aim at the backhand jam location of the returner. Take the singles sideline, center line, and the more powerful forehand return out of play.
HIT UP: The No. 1 place we double fault – for both men and women – is in the net. A low toss, low contact, slow racket head speed, and the ball getting too far back all contribute. Reach higher with the tossing arm, go up to the ball for high contact, and keep the swing speed nice and fast. Aim up as much as possible to get the ball up and over the net.
AVERAGES: On the pro tour, the men average one double fault out of every 10 second serves. The women are at seven. Roger Federer… well, he is a “Greek God” in this area, only double-faulting one out of every 16-second serve points. Go to the practice court and try to make 10 second serves without missing. Then do it again. Go back to zero when you miss, adding a little pressure.
SERVE +1 DEFENSE: The most prolific error in the 0-4 rally length is return errors. Then it’s Serve +1 errors (first shot after the serve). Practice defense here, making as many balls as possible deep down the middle of the court against an aggressive 2nd serve return.
SPIN: Make sure you are proficient at both topspin and slice (side spin) with your second serve. Spin controls the ball, therefore helping you put more in play. Spin also makes it more challenging for the returner to step in and be aggressive, especially when jammed. Go steeper up the back of the ball for topspin, or get less of it as you come around the side for slice. Spin is a necessity for quality second serves.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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