Thursday, 07 May 2015 / Published in Strategy Products

Num3ers Sneak Peak

Sneak Peak.

Let’s take a little look inside Num3ers…

G’day!

Hope all is going well this week! Some huge NCAA round of 64 battles coming up this weekend, and some monster matches in Madrid as well. Lots of fun stuff!

I have been putting the finishing touches on Num3ers all week, powered by a solid supply of iced coffee & Swedish House Mafia pumping in the background. It’s a good combo to keep me focused, examining what really matters in baseline play.

I want to give you a sneak peak into the product, so you get a good idea of what to expect. If you like the 25 Golden Rules and Between the Points, I can assure you that you are going to give two thumbs up to this new product. New numbers and new insight help us understand the hidden forces of this crucial part of the sport.

So here we go…

Let’s take a look at the performance of Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer at the 2015 Australian Open. Ferrer lost in the round of 16, and Nadal lost in the quarters.

The first thing to understand is that rally length data is divided up into three clear sections.

0-4 Shots – First Strike points to begin a rally.
5-9 Shots – Developing the rally and running patterns.
10+ Shots – Extended rallies, where players crush groundies at each other.

What kind of data would you expect from the two Spaniards?

Let me take a guess. They devoured their opponents in the 10+ shot range. The longer the point went, the more control they exerted, and the higher their winning percentage soared. Their highest amount of points won would be in 10+, then 5-9, then 0-4. That makes good solid sense given their style of play.

Well, the exact opposite happened.

If I was to say that Nadal and Ferrer COMBINED to have a LOSING record in 10+ rallies for the tournament, would you think I had lost my marbles? Surely that’s not possible. After all, they combined to beat Mikhail Youzhny, Tim Smyczek, Dudi Sela, Kevin Anderson, Tomasz Bellucci, Sergiy Stakhovsky, and Gilles Simon. That’s a solid body of work. Surely these Spanish baseline gods had to win the long, grinding points to win those matches.

Nope. This is just one example of how many of our pre-conceptions in tennis are not always on the mark.

Nadal and Ferrer combined to play 307 rallies longer that were at least 10 shots long, winning 153 and losing 154. That’s a huge red flag for those two guys – even on hard courts. Imagine the effort, the running, and the grinding that went into those 307 points – all for a negative return on investment.

Here’s the tournament combined numbers for Ferrer and Nadal.

0-4 Shots = Won 604 / Lost 554. So they end up +50 in this key area.
5-9 Shots = Won 232 / Lost 170. They light it up here for +62.
10+ Shots = Won 153 / Lost 154. -1 never looks good on a resume.

Rally length matters. It’s a major them of Num3ers. Let’s add up the total points they played in each area as well.

0-4 Shots = 1158 points, or 62% of total points
5-9 Shots = 402 points, or 22% of total points
10+ Shots = 307 points, or 16% of total points

Look at the massive difference in the amount of points they played, especially in the 0-4 Shot area.

Once you see the tournament averages for all players, you will be even more surprised. Tournament averages for all three segments (men and women) is the perfect starting point to understanding the different roles rally length play in our sport.

The next thing to learn is the average rally length. Then you start connecting the dots with baseline winning percentages, and the full, rich picture of the right way to manage the baseline becomes clear.

Once again, here’s the link to the Num3ers Homepage. This is where you can purchase it, beginning this Sunday, May 10.

Num3ers Homepage Link

Thanks so much,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Num3ers Sneak Peak

Sneak Peak.

Let’s take a little look inside Num3ers…

G’day!

Hope all is going well this week! Some huge NCAA round of 64 battles coming up this weekend, and some monster matches in Madrid as well. Lots of fun stuff!