Monday, 28 February 2022 / Published in ATP Tour, Australian Open, Daniil Medvedev, Rafael Nadal

Nadal is 15-0 to start the season. One metric stands out…

Rafael’s 2022 Renaissance.

The 35-year-old Spaniard has:

won his first 15 matches in a row to start 2022. That’s the best start to a season ever for the Spaniard.
won 13 sets in a row.
won the last 11 finals in a row he has competed in.
moved up one spot in the ATP Rankings this week to No. 4 in the world.

Here are the latest rankings.

ATP Rankings – February 28, 2022

So, what exactly is powering the resurgence? Is it coming more from the serving side, or returning side, or something more specific? Let’s have a dig into his 15 matches in 2022 and compare them to his Career Hard Court Average to see where the improvement is coming from.

Break Points Saved

2022 = 72%
Career Hard Ct Average = 66%
Difference = +6 percentage points

Nothing is moving the needle more in 2022 vs. his hard court average than Break Points Saved. There is a six percentage point difference between the two, which is the greatest of any match metric.

Specifically fueling this is Rafa’s two matches against Daniil Medvedev, where he saved 73% (16/22) in the Australian Open final and 100% (11/11) in their Acapulco semi-final. Combined against Medvedev, he has saved a whopping 82% (27/33). Those are crazy numbers and definitely paint an accurate picture of why Nadal is 15-0 so far this season.

Nadal has played three matches where he saved all the break points he faced, and also faced zero break points in his first match in Acapulco against Denis Kudla.

Facing break points is going to happen in our sport – even if you are Rafael Nadal having the best start to a season in your career. Keep in mind that he has lost 21 break points in 15 matches.

Getting broken is going to happen! But he is really locking in under pressure.

He is bending, but not breaking.

Service Games Won

2022 = 90%
Career Hard Ct Average = 86%
Difference = +4 percentage points

Saving more break points will obviously have a direct positive effect on holding serve more often. Rafa is four percentage points higher than his tour average in this metric. As a point of reference, he holds serve 85% of the time on clay. He must feel like Superman going through a stretch holding nine times out of 10 on hard.

Return Games Won

2022 = 33%
Career Hard Ct Average = 29%
Difference = +4 percentage points

So we know he is loving life on the serving side of the equation. He is also posting above-average numbers with Return Games Won as well. Rafa is also plus four percentage points with Return Games won. It’s interesting that Service Games Won and Return Games Won have both increased by the same percentage point margin.

1st Serves Won

2022 = 76%
Career Hard Ct Average = 73%
Difference = +3 percentage points

When the first serve goes in, Rafa is winning three percentage points more in 2022 than his career hard court average. I imagine this rise is due to a combination of better serve placement, more return errors, and more Serve +1 forehands to immediately cause havoc with.

1st Serve Returns Won

2022 = 34%
Career Hard Ct Average = 32%
Difference = +2 percentage points

This area has notched up two percentage points. Remarkably, Rafa has won 40 per cent or more in five of his 15 matches.

vs. Kozlov = 52% (17/33)
vs. Giron = 47% (23/49)
vs. Paul = 45% (21/47)
vs. Berankis = 44% (17/39)
vs. Norrie = 40% (16/40)

The match where he performed the worst was against Berrettini, winning just 26% (18/68).

Return Points Won

2022 = 42%
Career Hard Ct Average = 40%
Difference = +2 percentage points

This area has also ticked up two percentage points. In two matches, Nadal actually won more points returning than his opponent did serving. Those were against Kozlov (55%) and Paul (54%).

2nd Serve Returns Won

2022 = 56%
Career Hard Ct Average = 54%
Difference = +2 percentage points

What’s amazing with this stat is that Rafa has won more than 50% of 2nd serve return points in 12 of 15 of his matches. He completely owns his opponent’s second serve. Rafa was particularly in devastating form in Acapulco facing 2nd serves.

Acapulco ATP500 – 2nd Serve Return Points Won

Match 1 vs. Kudla = 67% (14/21)
Match 2 vs. Kozlov = 63% (5/8)
Match 3 vs. Paul = 72% (21/29)
Match 4 vs. Medvedev = 75% (18/24)
Match 5 vs. Norrie = 53% (10/19)
TOTAL = 67% (68/101)

Rafa especially dismantled his opponent’s second serves in Acapulco.

Break Points Converted

2022 = 43%
Career Hard Ct Average = 42%
Difference = +1 percentage point

Rafa has a +6 percentage point increase in saving break points, but only a one percentage point improvement in converting break points compared to his career hard court average. This area is doing fine, but not crushing it like when he saves breaks points while serving.

Service Points Won

2022 = 69%
Career Hard Ct Average = 68%
Difference = +1 percentage point

A slight uptick here as well with service points won.

Total Points Won

2022 = 55%
Career Hard Ct Average = 54%
Difference = +1 percentage point

This is a metric that is very, very hard to move the needle – even one percentage point. When players win 55% of all points they play, then they are basically undefeated. They rule the universe, which is Rafa so far in 2022.

1st Serves Made

2022 = 66%
Career Hard Ct Average = 67%
Difference = -1 percentage point

I would have naturally thought that he is getting more first serves in than normal. The numbers are very close, but he is actually getting slightly less in (66%) compared to his career hardcourt average (67%).

2nd Serves Won

2022 = 55%
Career Hard Ct Average = 57%
Difference = -2 percentage points

Interesting that this has dropped a little, down to 55% from 57%. Eight of his matches were above 50%, but five of his matches were below 50% won. Those were Norrie (42%), Bernakis (43%), Shapovalov (46%), Paul (46%), and Medvedev (47%).

Summary

Rafa is 15-0 primarily because he is handling the pressure of saving break points at a rarified level.

Opponents have got him to break point 76 times in 15 matches. They have only converted 21 of those points, which is simply not going to get the job done. Rafa is winning almost three out of four (72%) of these “king maker” points. When it all boils down to it, this is specifically driving his unbeaten start to the season.

Can’t beat him if you can’t break him.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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