G’day,
Nick Kyrgios has got his mojo back.
The 26-year-old Aussie is through to the Round of 16 at the Miami Open and will face 20-year-old Italian, Jannik Sinner, tomorrow for a spot in the quarters. I was courtside for Kyrgios’ 6-3, 6-0 2nd Rd victory over Andrey Rublev and took some notes and pictures on what I thought he was doing extremely well. One thing that stood out was how aggressive he was moving forward against Rublev’s 2nd serve. He was taking it on the rise. He was ripping it right back at him.
Kyrgios had one clear goal return goal vs. 2nd serves. Step in and attack. Get the ball back to the server as quickly as possible and take their time away to organize their hands and feet for their Serve +1 shot.
I think calling it a “pernicious strategy” fits so well. The definition means “having a harmful effect, especially in a gradual or subtle way.” That’s exactly what I saw on centre court in Miami.
The picture above speaks volumes about Kyrgios’ commitment to attack his opponent’s 2nd serve. Imagine hitting a kick second serve to his backhand out wide in the Ad court with the goal of pushing him back and getting the ball up high out of the strike zone. A lot of players today stand way back against 2nd serves, which gives the server more time to get ready for their next shot. And then there is the picture above, where Kyrgios disrespects your second serve and steps in and cranks it right back at you. No time to get ready. Rushed. It’s a suffocating tactic that extracts a mountain of Serve +1 errors.
Hawk-Eye Graphic: Kyrgios Return Hit Points vs. Rublev
Kyrgios was swarming Rublev’s 2nd serve. As you can see from the Hawk-Eye graphic above, Kyrgios was stepping way inside the baseline to attack his second serve. All of the hit points were in front of the black line, which is almost two metres (around 6 1/2 feet) inside the baseline. One of them (black arrow in the Ad court) was more than three metres inside the baseline.
So how did Rublev perform on 2nd serves? Ahhh… not so good! Rublev only managed to win FOUR second serves from 19 attempted for the match, which equals 21%. Kyrgios crushed his second serve with his pernicious return strategy.
Rublev, on the other hand, was not nearly as aggressive with his return position when returning second serves.
Hawk-Eye Graphic: Rublev Return Hit Points vs. Kygios
Rublev hit all his 2nd serve returns inside the baseline, but not nearly as far up the court as Kyrgios. Rublev won 21% od his second serve points. In comparison, the Aussie won 70% (7/10) of his second serve points for the match.
So, why was that?
A major factor was second serve speed.
Like this analysis?
Consider the strategy course The 25 Golden Rules of Singles Strategy.
Kyrgios averaged a very speedy 109mph on his second serve for the match, while Rublev was almost 20mph slower, averaging just 90mph. Kyrgios really took advantage of Rublev’s comparatively slower second serve delivery. It’s important to note that Kyrgios could still have stayed back and waited around the baseline for the 90 mph delivery. A lot of players do. But he wanted to jump on it. Attack it with his feet first and his hands second. Swarm the second serve and use it as an “entry point” to attack the strokes and the attack the mind of his opponent.
Below are three tweets I put out during the match focused on Kyrgios’ 2nd serve returns.
BREAK. Rublev leads 2-1.#Kyrgios stepping in to cut off the angle of the #Rublev kick 2nd serve out wide in the Ad court. Smart play, that also gets the ball back quickly to force a Serve +1 error. pic.twitter.com/Edp3FlANKz
— Craig O’Shannessy 🇺🇦 (@BrainGameTennis) March 25, 2022
This aggressive BH return does not come back. #Kyrgios 6-3, 1-0. Set & a break on the back of taking time away and discombobulating any game plan #Rublev may have. #MiamiOpen pic.twitter.com/sue8PhR4oX
— Craig O’Shannessy 🇺🇦 (@BrainGameTennis) March 25, 2022
6-3 5-0 #Kyrgios over #Rublev
It’s been a return clinic so far from Nick. Stepping so far inside the baseline & taking the ball so early. Straight back to Andrey, who has no time to prepare. Suffocating strategy that is working a treat. pic.twitter.com/H1lBJAMXGM— Craig O’Shannessy 🇺🇦 (@BrainGameTennis) March 25, 2022
SUMMARY
You can wait for a 90mph second serve to come to you and hit it around the baseline. Or you can upgrade.
You can attack it with your feet and get 2-3 metres inside the baseline and rebound the ball quickly back to the server to force a Serve +1 error. When only analyzing the first four shots of the point, return errors dominate. Then it’s Serve +1 errors.
That’s where Kyrgios had a field day against Rublev.