Hi, my name is Roger Djokovic
Roger is the Fully Monty.
Fed is putting up some “Djokovic-Like” return & rally numbers.
When we think of Roger’s game at its best, the serving side of the equation is typically what comes to mind. When we think of Novak Djokovic, we tend to focus more on the greatness of his returns and domination from the back of the court with rallies.
Well, what’s interesting at this year’s U.S. Open in the run to the semi finals, is that Roger is putting up amazing numbers on both the serving side AND the return and rally side of the net.
In fact, the numbers clearly show he is performing exactly the same or better in some areas as Novak.
Let’s have a close look at how Roger is stepping up from the trenches, and when returning serve.
| Baseline & Return Stats | Roger Federer | Novak Djokovic |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline Points Won | 55% | 55% |
| Return Pts Won v 1st Serve | 38% | 35% |
| Return Pts Won v 2nd Serve | 52% | 52% |
| Return Games Won | 36% | 36% |
| Return Winners | 15 | 7 |
| Returns In Play | 70% | 73% |
I have analyzed a lot of Roger’s stats over the past decade, and these are as good as I have seen them. I have sat courtside for a few of his matches here on Arthur Ashe, and every part of his game is on fire. He is coming over his backhand A LOT, driving the ball hard and really doing a fantastic job of staying around the baseline.
Groundstrokes
The following table also clearly illustrates how well Roger is doing with his groundstrokes – particularly off the backhand wing with 42 winners. He also leads all semi-finalists with points win the mid-range rally length of 4-8 shots, and extended rallies of 9+. Those are not areas where he typically excels.
| Groundstroke & Rally Stats | Federer | Djokovic | Wawrinka | Cilic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forehand Winners | 53 | 53 | 82 | 63 |
| Backhand Winners | 42 | 30 | 51 | 28 |
| Forehand Forced Errors | 64 | 65 | 62 | 102 |
| Backhand Forced Errors | 63 | 85 | 86 | 101 |
| Forehand Unforced Errors | 41 | 43 | 96 | 65 |
| Backhand Unforced Errors | 40 | 57 | 82 | 80 |
| 0-4 Shot Rallies Won | 57.0% | 58.0% | 54.6% | 55.7% |
| 4-8 Shot Rallies Won | 61.0% | 57.8% | 52.5% | 50.0% |
| 9+ Rallies Won | 67.5% | 53.4% | 47.0% | 44.1% |
Serving
Roger, as you would expect, is putting up some serious serve stats as well in his run to the semi’s – slightly better overall than what the other three players have produced.
| Serve Stats | Federer | Djokovic | Wawrinka | Cilic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Serves In | 65% | 64% | 53% | 56% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won | 82% | 78% | 79% | 82% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won | 61% | 62% | 56% | 58% |
| Break Points Saved | 82% | 67% | 66% | 72% |
| Service Games Won | 97% | 91% | 86% | 91% |
| Service Games Lost | 2 | 7 | 11 | 9 |
| Aces | 58 | 42 | 61 | 111 |
| Double Faults | 13 | 7 | 23 | 20 |
| Unreturned Serves | 43% | 33% | 35% | 45% |
Today’s semi finals are going to be extremely close matches, with only a handful of key points at critical times being the difference. The numbers the four players are putting up in the run to the semi’s suggest Roger and Novak will be playing in this year’s final. But we all know things don’t always go according to plan. Look what Stan was able to achieve at the French Open this year, beating Roger in the quarters and Novak in the final. Could happen again. Look at what Marin did here in New York last year…
I am really looking forward to the semi’s later today. Let’s hope for some great matches!
Best,
Craig
