Friday, 19 February 2021 / Published in Australian Open

Here’s How Brady Can Defeat Osaka.

G’day!

Can Jennifer Brady upset Naomi Osaka in the final of the 2021 Australian Open?

On paper, it’s a tough ask. Once Osaka has ventured beyond the fourth round at a Grand Slam, she’s won 11/11 matches. Half of her six tournament victories are majors. She is match-hardened against big-hitting opponents in this tournament such as Serena Williams and Garbina Muguruza. She is oozing with confidence.

“I have this mentality that people don’t remember the runners-up. You might, but the winner’s name is the one that’s engraved. I think I fight the hardest in the finals. I think that’s where you sort of set yourself apart.“Naomi Osaka

Sometimes tennis strategy can be quite complex. Lots of moving parts. Lots of evolving situations. Other times it can be really, really simple. Here’s one of my tweets from the 2018 Australian Open women’s final. Sometimes the strategy to win a Grand Slam final really is just this simple.

7-6, 1-2. Going to throw this at you #AusOpen

If Wozniacki hits only backhands from here on out, she wins.

If Caro only hits forehands from here on out, she loses.

The decision is actually up to #Halep. She directs the ball. Not sure she sees it so clearly 🔭

Woz BH > FH. pic.twitter.com/QBIwe4GCFC

— Craig O’Shannessy (@BrainGameTennis) January 27, 2018

Forehands & Backhands

Here are the forehand and backhand statistics for Jennifer and Naomi leading into the final.

Naomi Osaka

Forehands

Winners = 56
Forced Errors = 48
Unforced Errors 56
(Total Errors = 104)

Backhands

Winners = 36
Forced Errors = 57
Unforced Errors 48
(Total Errors = 105)

Jennifer Brady

Forehands

Winners = 58
Forced Errors = 41
Unforced Errors = 72
(Total Errors = 113)

Backhands

Winners = 23
Forced Errors = 36
Unforced Errors = 57
(Total Errors = 93)

Osaka saved two match points in her fourth-round match against Garbine Muguruza, surviving 4-6, 6-4, 7-5. I analyzed Naomi’s forehand and backhand performance in that match to see which side performed better to provide a clue as to what strategy Jennifer should employ in the final. Should she go after Naomi’s forehand, or backhand, or both?

Osaka v Muguruza

Muguruza Won The Point

The following forehand and backhand data is for forehand and backhand groundstrokes as well as returns. It does not include volleys or overheads.

Overall, When Mugurza won a point that contained a forehand or backhand (groundstroke or return) from Naomi, Naomi hit more backhands.

Osaka total forehands = 45% (77)
Osaka total backhands = 55% (96)

Osaka Won The Point

When Osaka won the point, she hit marginally more forehands.

Osaka total forehands = 51% (81)
Osaka total backhands = 49% (78)

On the surface, this would suggest that Naomi is just as solid off her forehand and backhand wing when she wins points. This data clearly suggests that Jennifer should target Naomi’s backhand, which is what Muguruza did effectively to win her points.

MORE…

When Muguruza won the point, the last shot of the rally that Naomi hit falls into two categories.

Naomi’s last shot was an error.
Naomi’s last shot went in and then Muguruza struck a winner.

Muguruza Winners + Osaka Errors

When Garbine won the point, the last shot from Osaka was overwhelmingly a backhand.

Muguruza Won Point

Osaka last shot a backhand = 57% (44)
Osaka last shot a forehand = 43% (33)

This is another layer of evidence that supports the strategy of Jennifer going after Naomi’s backhand.

Naomi Won Point

Osaka last shot a backhand = 25 (40%)
Osaka last shot a forehand = 38 (60%)

In this data set of 63 points, Naomi’s last shot in the rally was a forehand 60% of the time. That last shot was either Naomi hitting a forehand winner or Naomi hitting a forehand that forced an error on the other side of the court.

Jennifer’s Strategy

A LOT of game plans that I put together at the pro level – including to win a Grand Slam final – focus on extracting as many errors out of the opponent’s forehand. The research above on Naomi clearly shows that the primary strategy is to go after her backhand for the following three main reasons.

To the final, Naomi has 20 less backhand winners (36 to 56) and an almost identical amount of forehand and backhand errors (104 to 105).
When Mugurza won the point v Naomi, the last shot of the rally from Naomi was a backhand 57% of the time.
When Naomi won her points v Garbine, Naomi’s last shot was a forehand 60% of the time.

So what’s the best strategy for Jennifer to employ? There are actually two.

1: The Backhand Cage

Jennifer’s game style is all about hitting lots and lots of forehand – especially run-around forehands. A key strategy for her in the final is to get into an Ad court rally where Jennifer is continuously crushing run-around forehands and Naomi is hitting backhand after backhand after backhand. The more backhands Naomi hits the better for Jennifer. She wants to overwhelm the backhand wing. Starve the forehand.

2: The 2-1 Pattern

This is the best of both worlds as Jennifer gets to lock down Naomi’s backhand and then run her hard to the forehand. The “2” in the 2-1 is two balls to the backhand, which then opens up the Deuce court to be attacked, which is the “1”. See the pic below

The 2-1 Pattern

SUMMARY

Naomi’s forehand has the potential to win the match more than any other shot on the court. It’s so good at “freezing” opponents and taking away their anticipation. It’s so good at forcing errors. Better than her backhand.

If Jennifer can greatly limit Naomi from dominating with her forehand, then this match will take on a different feel. If Jennifer can rock run-around forehands and control the flow of the rally through the Ad court then she has a real shot at victory.

Have a great final ladies!!!

Best,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Here’s How Brady Can Defeat Osaka.

G’day!

Osaka v Muguruza