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Saturday, 09 June 2018 / Published in Uncategorized

Halep v Stephens: Here’s who will win today

For a deeper analysis of the massive impact the length of the rally has on winning a match, I highly recommend THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. Click HERE for more information about this tennis strategy product, focused on the importance of the start of the rally.

For a 20% discount, enter coupon code RG2018 at checkout. It’s good during the tournament.

The First 4 Shots – Video

 

G’day from Roland Garros,

What a great match-up we have today on Court Philippe Chatrier at 3 pm – weather permitting! I have broken down the form of both Simona Halep and Sloane Stephens into five distinct categories to better understand all of the small battles that are going to decide who wins this match. Those areas are:

  1. Serving
  2. Returning
  3. Rallying
  4. Approaching
  5. Between The Points (Mental/Emotional)

Here we go!

SERVING

Stephens is leading the entire field at Roland Garros this year with holding serve – she is No. 1 for the tournament!

Service Games Won

  • No. 1 – Stephens 87% (48/55)
  • Tied 21st – Halep 75% (43/57)

So how is she doing it? Is she blasting serves past her rivals? Not at all actually! Stephens has only hit three aces for the entire tournament but has only committed TWO double faults. That’s other-worldly! In six matches leading to the final, Stephens has hit 90 2nd serves.

Double Faults per 2nd serves.

  • Stephens = 1 out of every 45 2nd serves is a double fault.
  • Tournament Average = 1 out of every 7.7 2nd serves is a double fault.

While all her opponents are double faulting up a storm, Stephens is absolutely not beating herself. And because of that, she is leading the tournament in 2nd serve points won!

2nd Serve Points Won

  • No. 1 = Stephens 67% (55/82)
  • Tied 10th = Halep 55% (76/139)

Stephens’ fastest serve for the tournament is 111mph (179km/h), which has her tied for 25th fastest for the tournament. It’s not lights out, but still quite quick. Halep’s fastest serve is 107.5mph (173km/h) which is tied for 50th best at Roland Garros this year. First serve speed, including aces and service winners will not be where this final is decided!

Stephens has only faced 12 break points for the tournament, which is extremely impressive. She has been broken seven of the 12 times. Halep has faced 33 break points coming into the final, which are more normal numbers. She has been broken 12 times.

ADVANTAGE = STEPHENS

RETURNING

This is where Halep gets to shine. The Romanian is leading the tournament with Return Games Won!

Return Games Won

  1. No. 1 = Halep 63% (38/60)
  2. No. 5 = Stephens 54% (30/56)

Combined, both ladies have broken serve a remarkable 59%  (68/116) of the time. The tournament average is just 36% (910/2540), so you can see that this aspect of their performance has really fuelled their run to the final.

Halep has hit 7 return winners coming into the final, while Stephens has just two. Halep will look to immediately pressure Stephen’s groundstrokes with a big, hard return right down the middle of the court. Big shots are made for big targets!

ADVANTAGE = HALEP

RALLYING

Once the point gets past the serve and return stage, everything becomes very, very close.

Baseline Points Won

  • Tied 3rd Halep = 57.2% (314/549)
  • Tied 3rd Stephens = 57.1% (280/490)

Forehands 

  • Halep = 63 winners / 111 errors
  • Stephens = 51 winners / 92 errors

One thing to look for today is how much Stephens tries to attack Halep’s forehand deep and wide in the Deuce court. Halep has a large backswing on her forehand, and opponents are always looking to stay away from her super solid backhand and target the running forehand.

Backhands

  • Halep = 27 winners / 107 errors
  • Stephens = 27 winners / 93 errors

This is basically a tie. Both ladies rely on their backhands a lot, so the baseline strategy in the final will be to rally to the backhand and try and hurt it with depth and court position, and then change directions and attack the forehand on the run.

ADVANTAGE = EVEN

APPROACHING

Getting to the net is not a dominant part of the overall game plan for either player. In saying that, only Barbara Strycova (79x) and Garbine Muguruza (75x) have come to the net more than Halep has, but that is more of a by-product of just getting deeper into the draw.

Approaching

  • T31st Halep = 69% (48/70)
  • T52nd Stephens = 64% (32/50)

Both ladies will look to hurt each other with their baseline game, and force short balls as a result. Coming to the net to finish points is a natural result of that, so let’s hope to see both players at the net finishing off their great work from the back of the court.

ADVANTAGE = HALEP

MENTAL / EMOTIONAL

This is going to be pivotal this afternoon. I was at the US Open final where I saw Stephens win her first Grand Slam title. Her composure was immaculate. I was also here at Roland Garros last year to see Ostapenko defeat Halep. The tweet’s below provide a reference of what to look for today.

TWEET 1

The tweet below is from Wimbledon last year when I interviewed Halep and talked about her strategy.

Fun to talk strategy with @Simona_Halep this afternoon. Breaking down her dominant 0-4 1st Strike rally length (+38). Only +3 for longer. 🏆👌 pic.twitter.com/NYCwjlzTe2

— Craig O’Shannessy (@BrainGameTennis) July 7, 2017

TWEET 2

Halep needed to play the Wozniacki forehand a lot more in the 2018 Australian Open final.

7-6, 1-2. Going to throw this at you #AusOpen

If Wozniacki hits only backhands from here on out, she wins.

If Caro only hits forehands from here on out, she loses.

The decision is actually up to #Halep. She directs the ball. Not sure she sees it so clearly 🔭

Woz BH > FH. pic.twitter.com/QBIwe4GCFC

— Craig O’Shannessy (@BrainGameTennis) January 27, 2018

TWEET 3

2017 Roland Garros final. Ostapenko’s strategy then should be the same for Stephens today.

Ostapenko CRUSHING the ball. Breaks Halep to love. Targets the Forehand wing with backhands down the line. Smart strategy. #RG17 pic.twitter.com/R2xHRqk1CB

— Craig O’Shannessy (@BrainGameTennis) June 10, 2017

TWEET 4

That’s where the 2017 Roland Garros turned. This moment was the beginning of the end for Halep.

… and as soon as I write that, Halep throws her racket at 6-3, 3-0, 30-30 returning. What was that nonsense all about??? #RG17

— Craig O’Shannessy (@BrainGameTennis) June 10, 2017

TWEET 5

Negativity is Halep’s biggest problem on the court.

Halep broken. Too negative. She hit a winner in the game, and shook her head. Such a tough place to be to ultimately win the match. #RG17 pic.twitter.com/TbMwoKIXw8

— Craig O’Shannessy (@BrainGameTennis) June 10, 2017

TWEET 6

When Halep is positive, she can dominate anyone on the other side of the net.

Simona #Halep on the march in Set 2. 1-1. Looks very focused. Has got this one figured out v Cepelova #usopen pic.twitter.com/oNOr3Mif4L

— Craig O’Shannessy (@BrainGameTennis) August 27, 2014

TWO STORIES

Here are links to two stories that will give you a preview of what to look for today.

Halep d Pliskova: 2018 Australian Open Quarter Final

Wozniacki d Halep: 2018 Australian Open Final

ADVANTAGE = STEPHENS

WHO WINS?

I look at it like this…

Halep has had been so close before. Losing here last year. Losing in the final of Australia. There is one part of me that says NOW is her time to shine. She has paid the price. Now go win a Slam.

There is a second part of me that says because everything is so incredibly even coming into the final, that this match will be decided BETWEEN THE POINTS…

If Halep gets negative, she can’t win. We know Stephens is not going to beat herself in this area, so this helps me lean the dial slightly towards Stephens. Halep will have lots of emotions flying around. For sure Stephens as well. But I think that ultimately the potential for Halep to beat herself makes me lean towards Stephens.

PICK: STEPHENS IN 3 SETS

Let’s hope for a close, riveting final!

Good luck to both ladies.

Cheers,

Craig

For a deeper analysis of the massive impact the length of the rally has on winning a match, I highly recommend THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. Click HERE for more information about this tennis strategy product, focused on the importance of the start of the rally.

For a 20% discount, enter coupon code RG2018 at checkout. It’s good during the tournament.

The First 4 Shots – Video


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THE FIRST 4 SHOTS

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

Short Ball Hunter

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

Num3ers

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Dou8les Num3ers

Doubles Numbers

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

between the points

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

25 golden rules of singles strategy

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

25 golden rules of doubles

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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