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Halep v Stephens: Here’s who will win today

For a deeper analysis of the massive impact the length of the rally has on winning a match, I highly recommend THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. Click HERE for more information about this tennis strategy product, focused on the importance of the start of the rally.

For a 20% discount, enter coupon code RG2018 at checkout. It’s good during the tournament.

The First 4 Shots – Video

 

G’day from Roland Garros,

What a great match-up we have today on Court Philippe Chatrier at 3 pm – weather permitting! I have broken down the form of both Simona Halep and Sloane Stephens into five distinct categories to better understand all of the small battles that are going to decide who wins this match. Those areas are:

  1. Serving
  2. Returning
  3. Rallying
  4. Approaching
  5. Between The Points (Mental/Emotional)

Here we go!

SERVING

Stephens is leading the entire field at Roland Garros this year with holding serve – she is No. 1 for the tournament!

Service Games Won

  • No. 1 – Stephens 87% (48/55)
  • Tied 21st – Halep 75% (43/57)

So how is she doing it? Is she blasting serves past her rivals? Not at all actually! Stephens has only hit three aces for the entire tournament but has only committed TWO double faults. That’s other-worldly! In six matches leading to the final, Stephens has hit 90 2nd serves.

Double Faults per 2nd serves.

  • Stephens = 1 out of every 45 2nd serves is a double fault.
  • Tournament Average = 1 out of every 7.7 2nd serves is a double fault.

While all her opponents are double faulting up a storm, Stephens is absolutely not beating herself. And because of that, she is leading the tournament in 2nd serve points won!

2nd Serve Points Won

  • No. 1 = Stephens 67% (55/82)
  • Tied 10th = Halep 55% (76/139)

Stephens’ fastest serve for the tournament is 111mph (179km/h), which has her tied for 25th fastest for the tournament. It’s not lights out, but still quite quick. Halep’s fastest serve is 107.5mph (173km/h) which is tied for 50th best at Roland Garros this year. First serve speed, including aces and service winners will not be where this final is decided!

Stephens has only faced 12 break points for the tournament, which is extremely impressive. She has been broken seven of the 12 times. Halep has faced 33 break points coming into the final, which are more normal numbers. She has been broken 12 times.

ADVANTAGE = STEPHENS

RETURNING

This is where Halep gets to shine. The Romanian is leading the tournament with Return Games Won!

Return Games Won

  1. No. 1 = Halep 63% (38/60)
  2. No. 5 = Stephens 54% (30/56)

Combined, both ladies have broken serve a remarkable 59%  (68/116) of the time. The tournament average is just 36% (910/2540), so you can see that this aspect of their performance has really fuelled their run to the final.

Halep has hit 7 return winners coming into the final, while Stephens has just two. Halep will look to immediately pressure Stephen’s groundstrokes with a big, hard return right down the middle of the court. Big shots are made for big targets!

ADVANTAGE = HALEP

RALLYING

Once the point gets past the serve and return stage, everything becomes very, very close.

Baseline Points Won

  • Tied 3rd Halep = 57.2% (314/549)
  • Tied 3rd Stephens = 57.1% (280/490)

Forehands 

  • Halep = 63 winners / 111 errors
  • Stephens = 51 winners / 92 errors

One thing to look for today is how much Stephens tries to attack Halep’s forehand deep and wide in the Deuce court. Halep has a large backswing on her forehand, and opponents are always looking to stay away from her super solid backhand and target the running forehand.

Backhands

  • Halep = 27 winners / 107 errors
  • Stephens = 27 winners / 93 errors

This is basically a tie. Both ladies rely on their backhands a lot, so the baseline strategy in the final will be to rally to the backhand and try and hurt it with depth and court position, and then change directions and attack the forehand on the run.

ADVANTAGE = EVEN

APPROACHING

Getting to the net is not a dominant part of the overall game plan for either player. In saying that, only Barbara Strycova (79x) and Garbine Muguruza (75x) have come to the net more than Halep has, but that is more of a by-product of just getting deeper into the draw.

Approaching

  • T31st Halep = 69% (48/70)
  • T52nd Stephens = 64% (32/50)

Both ladies will look to hurt each other with their baseline game, and force short balls as a result. Coming to the net to finish points is a natural result of that, so let’s hope to see both players at the net finishing off their great work from the back of the court.

ADVANTAGE = HALEP

MENTAL / EMOTIONAL

This is going to be pivotal this afternoon. I was at the US Open final where I saw Stephens win her first Grand Slam title. Her composure was immaculate. I was also here at Roland Garros last year to see Ostapenko defeat Halep. The tweet’s below provide a reference of what to look for today.

TWEET 1

The tweet below is from Wimbledon last year when I interviewed Halep and talked about her strategy.

TWEET 2

Halep needed to play the Wozniacki forehand a lot more in the 2018 Australian Open final.

TWEET 3

2017 Roland Garros final. Ostapenko’s strategy then should be the same for Stephens today.

TWEET 4

That’s where the 2017 Roland Garros turned. This moment was the beginning of the end for Halep.

TWEET 5

Negativity is Halep’s biggest problem on the court.

TWEET 6

When Halep is positive, she can dominate anyone on the other side of the net.

TWO STORIES

Here are links to two stories that will give you a preview of what to look for today.

Halep d Pliskova: 2018 Australian Open Quarter Final

Wozniacki d Halep: 2018 Australian Open Final

ADVANTAGE = STEPHENS

WHO WINS?

I look at it like this…

Halep has had been so close before. Losing here last year. Losing in the final of Australia. There is one part of me that says NOW is her time to shine. She has paid the price. Now go win a Slam.

There is a second part of me that says because everything is so incredibly even coming into the final, that this match will be decided BETWEEN THE POINTS…

If Halep gets negative, she can’t win. We know Stephens is not going to beat herself in this area, so this helps me lean the dial slightly towards Stephens. Halep will have lots of emotions flying around. For sure Stephens as well. But I think that ultimately the potential for Halep to beat herself makes me lean towards Stephens.

PICK: STEPHENS IN 3 SETS

Let’s hope for a close, riveting final!

Good luck to both ladies.

Cheers,

Craig

For a deeper analysis of the massive impact the length of the rally has on winning a match, I highly recommend THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. Click HERE for more information about this tennis strategy product, focused on the importance of the start of the rally.

For a 20% discount, enter coupon code RG2018 at checkout. It’s good during the tournament.

The First 4 Shots – Video