Roger Federer leads the tour in career-best win percentages in a boatload of serve categories.
So what’s his worst stat? Well, here it is!
The ATP ranking for Break Points Won on clay includes 200 players. Federer is ranked 198th, so I think it’s fair to say this is the bottom of the barrell for the Swiss maestro.
Roger has only won 40.46% (956/2363) of break points on clay from 270 matches. As a comparision, Rafael Nadal is second best all-time, winning 48.47% (2062/4254) from 449 matches.
You may have noticed this afternoon in Paris that Roger is the first player through to the quarter-finals of Roland Garros 2019. He last made the quarter-finals in 2015, losing to Stan Wawrinka 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(4). In that match, Roger converted 0/4 break points. If he had have got one or two of those, it may have been a different story.
I just went through Roger’s four matches so far in Paris to analyze how he is doing on break points this tournament. He has won 18/37, which equals 48.6%. That’s better than Rafa’s career mark!
Next, I looked at the following three criteria on break points.
- Did the break point start with a first or second serve?
- What was the rally length?
- Did the opponent make an error, or did Roger hit a winner?
Here’s the breakdown from his four matches.
Lorenzo Sonego – Broken FIVE times
- 1st Serve – 6 shot rally – Opponent error
- 2nd Serve – 2 shot rally – Opponent error
- 2nd Serve – 2 shot rally – Opponent error
- 1st Serve – 2 shot rally – Opponent error
- 1st Serve – 2 shot rally – Federer winner
Oscar Otte – broken THREE times
- 2nd Serve – 6 shot rally – Opponent error
- 1st Serve – 6 shot rally – Federer winner
- 2nd Serve – 2 shot rally – Opponent error
Casper Ruud – broken FIVE times
- 2nd Serve – 4 shot rally – Federer winner
- 2nd Serve – 12 shot rally – Federer winner
- 1st Serve – 6 shot rally – Opponent error
- 2nd Serve – 4 shot rally – Federer winner
- 1st Serve – 4 shot rally – Federer winner
Leonardo Mayer – broken FIVE times
- 1st Serve – 4 shot rally – Federer winner
- 2nd Serve – 0 shot rally – Opponent error
- 1st serve – 2 shot rally – Opponent error
- 2nd Serve – 2 shot rally – Opponent error
- 1st Serve – 16 shot rally – Federer winner
TAKEAWAY No. 1
Break points came equally from first and second serves.
- 1st Serve = 9 times
- 2nd Serve = 9 times
This is good news from Roger, as it is not like it was 15 second serves that he broke. The ability to get the job done against both first and second serves is BIG!
TAKEAWAY No. 2
Rally length of 18 break points
- 2 Shots = 7 times
- 6 shots = 4 times
- 4 shots = 4 times
- 0 shots = 1 time
- 12 shots = 1 time
- 16 shots = 1 time
Now we have found some pure gold!
I can’t tell you how many times when I am doing strategy presentations all over the world that people come up to me and ask about the “big points”. They always have it in their head that when these big points roll around, that the rally length naturally gets longer. They have not charted it. They are only guessing, but they are so adament that their hunch is correct.
This blows it out of the water.
Serve +1 – Federer has converted the majority of his break points from forcing a Serve +1 error from his opponent in a two shot rally. I have been talking about the massive importance of Serve +1, and building a strong DEFENSIVE foundation with this shot. This is simply fuel for that fire.
Long Rallies – There were only two rallies out of 18 that were longer than six shots. Two. That’s 11%. Get over it.
TAKEAWAY No. 3
These are pretty even numbers, with Roger benefitting from an opponent error more than he has to hit a winner.
- Opponent error = 10 points
- Federer winner = 8 points
When the big points roll around, look to make the opponent miss first and foremost, then look to craft the advantage in the point to finish with your own winner.
TAKEAWAY No. 4
What was the most common combo?
- 6 times = 2 shot rally opponent error
- 4 times = 4 shot rally Federer winner
- 3 times = 6 shot rally error
- 1 time = 2 shot rally Federer winner
- 1 time = 6 shot rally Federer winner
- 1 time = 12 shot rally Federer winner
- 1 time = 16 shot rally Federer winner
- 1 time = double fault
The most common way a point ended was a two shot rally error from Roger’s opponent. This information must drive your practice court. It is an absolute priority to work on a deep return right down the middle of the court to take time away from the server, make them have to move away from the ball, and force them to miss.
Secondly, it’s critical that you work on hitting a serve and NOT missing the next shot because you are trying to play offense when indeed you should be on defense.
Let’s all learn from Roger and copy and paste his improvement for our own game.
All the best from Roland Garros,
Craig