G’day,
Tonight’s Australian Open final between Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev is shaping up as a blockbuster. Two guys in great form who are so ready to rumble. This match is probably going to come down to a point here and a point there. Those points are probably going to be break points.
I have just analyzed all the break points for both players in their first six matches at the 2021 Australian Open to get a feel for how they have been performing so far. The results are eye-opening!
Break Point Metrics: Djokovic & Medvedev 1st Six Matches
- Australian Open Tournament Average: Break Points Saved = 60%
- Novak has saved 69% (24/35).
- Daniil has face 68% (17/25)
So on the surface, they are both saving right around the same amount (69% to 68%). So let’s call that even. Daniil has only faced 25 break points, while Novak has faced 35. So a slight edge to Daniil there.
But when you did a little deeper, things get much more interesting.
1st Serve Percentage On Break Point
- Novak = 77% (27/35)
- Daniil = 32% (8/25)
That’s potentially a match-winning advantage for Novak if those numbers are about the same in the final. Got to make first serves in big moments against a world No. 1.
I broke down Break Points Saved (green header) and Break Points Lost (red header) for both Novak and Daniil below. Some interesting sub-plots for both of them.
Novak Break Points Saved
Here’s an overview of the 24 break points saved by Novak.
- 1st Serve % = 79% (19/24)
- Aces = 5
- Groundstroke Winners = 7
- Opponent Errors = 12
- Twelve of the 24 points feature a Novak winner. That’s stepping up big time on big points.
Serve Location
Deuce Court
- Deuce Court T = 3
- Deuce Court Wide = 3
Ad Court
- Ad Court Wide = 7
- Ad Court Body = 3
- Ad Court T = 8
- Good mix throughout the tournament to keep opponents guessing.
Novak Break Points Lost
Break Points Lost Summary
- 1st Serve % = 73% (8/11)
- Double Faults = 2
- Groundstroke Errors = 7
- Opponent Winners = 2
- Novak is breaking himself more than opponents are breaking him. Nine errors out of of the 11 points lost.
Serve Location
Deuce Court
- Deuce Court T = 1
- Deuce Court Wide = 0
Ad Court
- Ad Court Wide = 4
- Ad Court Body = 0
- Ad Court T = 4
- Again a good mix to keep opponents guessing as to the location.
Daniil Break Points Saved
Here’s an overview of the 17 break points saved.
- 1st Serve % = 41% (7/17)
- Aces = 3
- Groundstroke & Volley Winners = 3
- Opponent Errors = 11
- Medvedev is locking down and solid as a rock. Only six winners from 17 points.
Serve Location
Deuce Court
- Deuce Court T = 2
- Deuce Court Body = 1
- Deuce Court Wide = 2
Ad Court
- Ad Court Wide = 5
- Ad Court Body = 4
- Ad Court T = 3
- The body serves are high because of all the 2nd serves.
Daniil Break Points Lost
Break Points Lost Summary
- 1st Serve % = 13% (1/8)
- Double Faults = 1
- Groundstroke Errors = 5
- Opponent Winners = 2
- Making only one first serve from eight points is going to put you in a big hole to start a big point.
Serve Location
Deuce Court
- Deuce Court Wide = 2
Ad Court
- Ad Court Wide = 3
- Ad Court Body = 1
- Ad Court T = 1
- Novak should probably be sitting on Ad court wide.
SUMMARY
Novak has faced more break points, but his performance in the crucible moment has certainly been more impressive. Daniil has done an outstanding job of not letting opponents get to break point. But has not served well once he is there.
Looking forward to a cracker of a final!
Best,
Craig