G’day from Wimbledon.
The quarter-finals for the Wimbledon men’s singles are set. Here’s the lineup.
- Carlos Alcaraz v Holger Rune
- Daniil Medvedev v Chris Eubanks
- Jannik Sinner v Roman Safiullin
- Andrey Rublev v Novak Djokovic
The Cinderella stories are #43 Eubanks and #92 Safiullin. Let’s focus on the 27-year-old Eubanks to understand what he doing so well to reach the quarters. Here’s his draw so far.
- Rd 1 defeated Thiago Monteiro 4-6, 7-5, 7-5, 6-3
- Rd 2 defeated Cameron Norrie 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 7-6(3)
- Rd 3 defeated Christopher O’Connell 7-6(5), 7-6(3), 7-6(2)
- Rd 4 defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas 3-6, 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-4, 6-4
- Qtrs vs. Daniil Medvedev (Wedensday)
Here are 10 quick facts about Eubanks so you can know what to look for in tomorrow’s match.
1: Aces = 85.
He is the tournament leader with 85. Seven of those have been on second serves. At 6’7″ (201 cm), his height is a big advantage to drop heat on the lush grass at Wimbledon.
2: Serve & Volley = 62% Won (50/81)
Chris likes to immediately bring the battle to the front of the court. He has served and volleyed 81 times, winning 62% (51). This is going to be a pivotal battle in the quarters against Medvedev because Daniil likes to stand so far back to return serve. That certainly works for him on a hard court, but it should prove tougher to pull off on the grass.
3: Net Points Won = 64% (124/194)
Chris has made it to the second week of Wimbledon by crashing the net at every opportunity. Only Safiullin (218) has been to the net more to the quarter-finals. Chris has shown he is adept at picking up low balls, closing fast, and also displaying nice touch with short-angled volleys. He has a big wing span and can intimate opponents with his presence at the net.
4: Baseline Points Won = 44% (159/360)
This is the lowest total of the eight quarter-finalists, and it will be an area Medvedev (52% baseline points won) will look to exploit. Chris will be wise to jump on the first short ball he sees in a baseline rally and take his chances at the net.
5: Average Rally Length = 2.58 shots
Chris likes to play short points as they perfectly mesh with his aggressive “first strike” game style. By contrast, Medvedev’s average rally to the final is 4.21 shots. That’s considerably longer. Whoever can play these points on their terms will be a great chance to book their place into the semi-finals.
6: Forehand Performance = 74 winners / 154 errors
Chris’ forehand is his preferred shot from the back of the court. But it’s important to note that he has more than double the amount of forehand errors than winners. The key for Chris is to play offense when the situation arises and live with the result. But there is nothing wrong with defending cross court with the forehand and staying in the point against Medvedev. Expect Daniil to attack Chris’ wide running forehand in the Deuce court. Going down the line with that shot is tough. Go cross and make your opponent have to hit the spectacular shot.
7: Backhand Performance = 31 winners / 150 errors
Chris has about the same amount of errors with forehands and backhands, but only half the winners from the backhand side. That is like waving a red flag to Medvedev that this is the side to attack. Also, remember Medvedev loves his backhand, so backhand-to-backhand exchanges are definitely going to favor Medvedev. Chris has a nice highlight reel already of big backhands down the line. He will be wise to go for it at times and also change directions down the line with his backhand to get into a forehand-to-forehand exchange.
8: Rally Length
- 0-4 Shots = 329 won / 309 lost = +20
- 5-8 shots = 53 won / 49 lost = +4
- 9+ shots = 6 won / 5 lost = +1
This is really good news for Chris, displaying he is a competent player at Wimbledon this year in short and long rallies. Obviously, shorter is more in his favor, but he should not try to end points prematurely against Medvedev on grass. Stay alive, and then hunt the short ball.
9: Returns In = 62%
The tournament average is 66%, so this percentage is slightly below that. But he is tied with Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev with returns in play. Medvedev is higher at 74%, but Chris’ big serve is going to knock those numbers down.
10: Serve Mix
A big part of the success of Chris’ serve is his unpredictability with serve location. Below are his first-serve locations in the last round against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
1st Serve Direction Deuce Court
- Wide = 27
- Body = 3
- T = 27
1st Serve Direction Ad Court
- Wide = 22
- Body = 1
- T = 22
Medvedev won’t know where the serves are going. This is a great mix from Chris, who is comfortable hitting any spot in the service box.
Summary
On paper, Medvedev is the favorite. Remember, he is ranked #3 in the world. But he had a very average lead-in to Wimbledon, winning two grass-court matches and losing two. He has played solid here but not really lighting it up. Eubanks loves to play on grass, while Medvedev is certainly more at home on hard courts.
Prediction: Eubanks in five sets. Should be a thriller!