Monday, 28 August 2023 / Published in Carlos Alcaraz, US Open

Carlos Alcaraz Has A Hole In His Game

G’day from New York,

Carlos Alcaraz wants everyone to believe that all is good in his world coming into the 2023 US Open, where he is the defending champion.

He has actually gone a step further by announcing in a pre-tournament press conference that he has improved since taking the title last year.

“I feel that I am more mature on the court. I feel that I am a better player than I was a year ago. I got my first Grand Slam last year, but I feel like I am more mature and better,” Alcaraz said in an interview this week.

I don’t buy it.

On one hand, Alcaraz is 56-3 this season and has a tour-leading six titles. Almost unstoppable.

On the other hand, his return of serve has recently started bleeding errors – particularly his forehand return. I wrote an ATP analysis of the Cincinnati final, where Alcaraz held a match point but lost to Novak Djokovic 5-7, 7-6(7), 7-6(4). One of the keys of the match was the surprising total of return errors from the match.

2023 Cincinnati Final: Return Errors

Djokovic = 18
Alcaraz = 37

The number of return errors, particularly in big moments, showed Alcaraz was definitely struggling with this part of his game. In particular, the struggle started in Toronto and grew in Cincinnati. This part of his game needs to get fixed fast if he is to repeat as champion in New York.

Let’s dig into the numbers and compare his return performance from the following nine tournaments this year.

Tournament / Result

Indian Wells = Won
Miami = Semi-Finals
Barcelona = Won
Madrid = Won
Roland Garros = Finalist
Queens = Won
Wimbledon = Won
Toronto = Qtr Finals
Cincinnati = Finalist

RETURNS MADE

The carnage on the return side of the game is clearly evident in Toronto and Cincinnati, which feature at the bottom of the Returns Made table.

Alcaraz only put 71.6% (394/550) of his returns in play in Cincinnati. These are clearly not a player’s numbers at the top of his game. He was stronger in this area on hard courts in both Miami and Indian Wells earlier this season.

When you break the data down further, you see the forehand return suffering the most.

Forehand return performance was at its lowest point from these nine events in Cincinnati (66.9%). Backhand return performance was also weakest in Cincinnati (75.4%) but performed well in Toronto (78.5%).

Watch the short video below to understand the return errors vs. Djokovic in the Cincinnati final.

2023 Cincinnati Final: Alcaraz Return Errors vs. Novak Djokovic (TennisTV)

It’s clear from the video that something is amiss with Alcaraz’s returns. They are not clean. Too many shanks. Too much pressing. Not the kind of errors we are used to seeing from the World No. 1.

RETURNS WON

Toronto drops to the bottom of the table with Returns Won at just 36.4% (87/239). That’s a long way off Alcaraz’s stellar performance at Barcelona (47.3% won) and also on hard courts in Miami with 44.2% won. It will be impossible for him to win the US Open if he puts up Toront0-type numbers in New York.

Let’s look at a breakdown of forehand and backhand return points won.

It’s the forehand return. It’s the forehand return.

Alcaraz’s forehand return is the weakest out of all nine tournaments in Toronto (34.6% won) and Cincinnati (38.4% won). The backhand return performed okay in Cincinnati but came in eighth place in Toronto.

So, what exactly is wrong with Alcaraz’s forehand return?

The answer is two parts.

The first is that he has lost confidence in where to stand. He is all over the spectrum with his return location, hurting his rhythm, timing, and spacing to the ball. He is jammed a lot. Look at the pic below from the Cincinnati final vs. Djokovic. That’s not normal return positioning on a hard court.

Hawk-Eye Graphic: Alcaraz Return Hit Points vs. Djokovic 2023 Cincinnati Final

The yellow dots are first-serve returns. They are all relatively uniform, but Alcaraz is clearly trying to pinch forward when facing a wide slice serve in the Deuce court. The second serve dots are so confusing – especially on hard court.

Some blue dots are 16 feet behind the baseline, while one doesn’t even register on the scale because it is so far forward, probably around 10 feet inside the baseline. To simplify things, he is either too far back or too far in vs. 2nd serves and has become the master of neither.

The second part can be seen from the video. He is often going too steep up the back of the ball and mishitting it. Too much attempted spin trying to get the ball in play, or too much power blasting the ball wildly. He started the Cincinnati final with a forehand return error, and also finished the match with the exact same error.

For the next two weeks in New York, he needs to stop bouncing around so much with his return position and settle into a spot where he can put a lot of returns back in play. He needs to return to his roots and hit through the return rather than “cuffing” it so much. Forget the return winners (for a while) and reduce the return errors.

Looking forward to seeing the adjustments!

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Carlos Alcaraz Has A Hole In His Game

G’day from New York,

RETURNS MADE

2023 Cincinnati Final: Alcaraz Return Errors vs. Novak Djokovic (TennisTV)

RETURNS WON