G’day from Wimbledon. 🎾🌱
On Friday, we have two outstanding matches in the men’s semi-finals at The Championships.
- Carlos Alcaraz v Daniil Medvedev
- Jannik Sinner v Novak Djokovic
Below is an analysis of rally length for all four players to the semi-finals. It is not meant to be a head-to-head comparison. Instead, it is about understanding all four players and how they have structured their games to reach the semis.
You would naturally think (I did) that Novak Djokovic would be leading the charge here. He is not. He actually has been the least proficient of the four semi-finalists in short rallies.
I would never have guessed that Daniil Medvedev has a superior advantage (points won – points lost) in the all-important 0-4 rally length over Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.
Jannik Sinner is blowing everyone out of the water, winning 101 points more than he has lost. This spells trouble for Djokovic in their semi-final. If the Italian can continue that form (won’t be easy against Djokovic), he could create a significant mismatch in short points.
Learn more about rally length – Webinar 1 Patterns & Percentages of Singles Strategy
Alcaraz is crushing this rally length. Medvedev, not so much.
Alcaraz has won 42 more points than he has lost in 5-8 shot rallies. That’s probably a spillover from the 0-4 shot rally length, where he got ahead in the rally and hadn’t finished it yet. Now, we certainly see him ending points.
As you would expect, Djokovic is also a prime mover in the rally length. Sinner is doing fine. Medvedev has not done well in this rally length at all.
This is the domain of Djokovic – by a Serbian country mile.
Djokovic is the leader here, winning 30 more points than he has lost. Alcaraz is also doing just well, winning 17 more than he has lost. Medvedev and Sinner are not lighting the world on fire in long rallies and would be wise to avoid them in their semi-final matches.
Rally Length Played
Carlos Alcaraz is playing the most short rallies of the four semi-finalists.
Alcaraz played more than three out of four points in the 0-4 shot rally length. He is the king of “first strike” tennis at Wimbledon so far this year. What’s fascinating is that Djokovic is at the bottom end of this list, but not by far. Medvedev, Sinner, and Djokovic are all within 1.1 percentage points in short rallies.
Rally length gives you insight into how aggressive players are competing at Wimbledon. Alcaraz is dropping heat as quickly as he can. The rest are finding the right balance of offense and defense for their game.
I expect Alcaraz and Djokovic to advance to the final. I hope for some great tennis, and maybe we get an upset!