For a deeper analysis of the massive impact the length of the rally has on winning a match, I highly recommend THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. Click HERE for more information about this tennis strategy product, focused on the importance of the start of the rally.
The First 4 Shots – Video
Tournament Predictions ✅
In order to predict the future, you better understand the past.
Before 2018 Wimbledon began, I made predictions in 19 different statistical areas for both men and women. I predicted the exact percentages, and also had a shot at some tournament totals.
How did I do? Not so bad… thank you very much! 😀
Below are the tables, followed by a summary.
2018 Wimbledon Men: Predictions
| MEN | Predicted | Final Result | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline Points Won | 46% | 46% | Same |
| Net Points Won | 65% | 65% | Same |
| Service Games Won | 83% | 83% | Same |
| 1st Serves In | 63% | 63% | Same |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 74% | 74% | Same |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 52% | 52% | Same |
| Return Games Won | 17% | 17% | Same |
| Return Won v 1st Serve | 26% | 26% | Same |
| Return Won v 2nd Serve | 48% | 48% | Same |
| Returns In | 67% | 66% | 1% |
| Break Points Saved | 63% | 64% | 1% |
| Break Points Converted | 37% | 36% | 1% |
| Serve & Volley Points Played | 8% | 7% | 1% |
| Unreturned 1st Serves | 41% | 43% | 2% |
| Unreturned 2nd Serves | 21% | 23% | 2% |
| Serve & Volley Ponts Won | 69% | 65% | 4% |
| Double Faults | 941 | 947 | 6 |
| Return Winners | 508 | 454 | 54 |
| Aces | 2755 | 3080 | 325 |
2018 Wimbledon Women: Predictions
| WOMEN | Prediction | Final Result | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service Games Won | 70% | 70% | Same |
| Break Points Saved | 56% | 56% | Same |
| Break Points Converted | 44% | 44% | Same |
| Serve & Volley Points Played | 1% | 1% | Same |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 66% | 65% | 1% |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 47% | 46% | 1% |
| Returns In | 77% | 76% | 1% |
| Unreturned 1st Serves | 29% | 30% | 1% |
| Return Won v 1st Serve | 34% | 35% | 1% |
| Return Won v 2nd Serve | 53% | 54% | 1% |
| Baseline Points Won | 47% | 48% | 1% |
| Net Points Won | 65% | 64% | 1% |
| 1st Serves In | 64% | 62% | 2% |
| Unreturned 2nd Serves | 18% | 20% | 2% |
| Return Games Won | 30% | 32% | 2% |
| Serve & Volley Ponts Won | 69% | 63% | 6% |
| Return Winners | 440 | 455 | 15 |
| Aces | 730 | 810 | 80 |
| Double Faults | 810 | 1032 | 222 |
- I nailed nine of the 16 strategies that involved predicting a percentage.
- Overall, in 15 of the 16 strategies that involved predicting percentage, I either got it right or only missed it in the 1% – 2% range.
- I predicted 941 double faults. There were 947.
- I thought there would be a higher ratio of serve & volley points won. 65% is still great, but with a lot of hot weather predicted, I thought that would be higher (69%). The same theory applied to return winners, which I thought would be more.
- With tall players going deep (Anderson, Isner, Del Potro, Raonic), it ended up being the third highest ace total since 2002.
Women’s Draw
- I predicted four on the money.
- Overall, in 15 of the 16 strategies that involved predicting percentage, I either got it right or only missed it in the 1% – 2% range.
- I predicted 440 return winners – there were 455.
- Aces and double faults were also higher than I thought for the women.
Summary
So what does this all mean?
You hear all the time that our sport is changing. It’s so much different than it was just a few years ago… yadda, yadda, yadda…
When you hear these opinions, search for facts to back it up. For example, the baseline win percentage for men for the past 17 years has either been 45% or 46%. For the women, it’s either been 46%, 47% and a couple of 48% years thrown in.
The point is – these numbers are not climbing or decreasing, or all of a sudden changing because of strings or rackets, or faster athletes or better courts.
If you really know your sport, you can use this data to help better design your practice court.
Can it also be used to help a player win a Wimbledon title?
It just did.😉💥🏆
Cheers,
Craig