/ Published in ATP Tour

2018 Roland Garros: Men’s Final Preview

For a deeper analysis of the massive impact the length of the rally has on winning a match, I highly recommend THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. Click HERE for more information about this tennis strategy product, focused on the importance of the start of the rally.

For a 20% discount, enter coupon code RG2018 at checkout. Last day is TODAY!

The First 4 Shots – Video

 

G’day from Roland Garros,

Let’s lay out cards right on the table ♥️♣️♦️♠️.

Dominic Thiem is the only player to have beaten Rafael Nadal on clay in the past two seasons. Here they are…

  1. 2018 Madrid Quarter Finals. Thiem def. Nadal 7-5, 6-3
  2. 2017 Rome Quarter Finals. Thiem def. Nadal 6-4, 6-3

Now, I want you to quickly dismiss their importance.

Nadal is 49-2 on clay the past two seasons. It is significant that the only guy to beat him on the crushed Earth will be standing across the net from him this afternoon.

Does Thiem have a plan to beat Nadal today? He says he does!

“I know how to play against him. I have a plan,” Thiem said of facing Nadal. “If I want to beat him, I have to play that way like I did in Rome and in Madrid. But I’m also aware that here it’s tougher. He likes the conditions more here than in Madrid, for sure. Best of five is also a different story.”

The three most important factors today are:

  • COURT: Philippe Chatrier is a high bouncing trampoline that accentuates Nadal’s heavy spin.
  • FIVE: Best of 5 sets is a completely different animal than best of 3. Nadal has way more time to cycle through a series of potential winning game plans in a best of 5 set match.
  • FINAL: Extra tension. Extra excitement. Extra atmosphere. Extra craziness.

Focus on these three elements instead. Nadal is 6-3 career against Thiem, and two of those wins have come here at Roland Garros.

Nadal v Thiem: At Roland Garros

  1. 2017 Semi Final. Nadal def. Thiem 6-3, 6-4, 6-0.
  2. 2014 Rd 64. Nadal def Thiem 6-2, 6-2, 6-3

In their 2017 match, Nadal saved 7/8 break points and won 76% (19/25) of his 2nd serve points. Thiem saved 4/10 break points and only won 37% (14/38) of his 2nd serve points. Expect similar pain this afternoon.

So let’s dive into some metrics that have played out for both Nadal and Thiem in their first six matches – a focus on what matters!

RALLY LENGTH

This is a very important aspect of the final to understand – so you watch the match with the right lens! More points will be played in the 0-4 shot rally length than the other two COMBINED! It’s just how our sport is organized, even with the two best players in the world facing each other.

Nadal: Points Played To The Final

  • 0-4 Shots = 55% (607 points)
  • 5-8 Shots = 27% (298 points)
  • 9+ Shots = 18% (192 points)

Thiem: Points Played To The Final

  • 0-4 Shots = 65% (773 points)
  • 5-8 Shots = 23% (276 points)
  • 9+ Shots = 11% (133 points)

So where do these two dominant clay court players find their advantage? Which rally length do they accumulate the most amount of points? It’s the 0-4 rally length – like it always is!!!

The following breakdown is their plus/minus ratio. For example, Nadal won 342 points so far in the 0-4 shot rally length. He lost 265. That makes him +77 in that rally length. You will see for both players that they craft more advantage (win more points) in 0-4 than any other rally length.

Nadal & Thiem: +/-

  • 0-4 Shots = Nadal 77  / Thiem 91
  • 5-8 Shots = Nadal 60 / Thiem 40
  • 9+ Shots = 11% Nadal 34 / Thiem 23

Whoever wins the 0-4 shot rally length has a 95% chance of winning the match. That was the percentage for the overall tournament last year. So players that won their match also won 0-4 95% of the time. It’s almost a lock. And it needs to drive your practice court!

I see Rafa winning the 0-4 rally length because he will “steal” a lot of points from Thiem’s 2nd serve, and also finish a lot of points in the three shot rally length (His own Serve +1)

ADVANTAGE: NADAL

SERVING

Let’s start with Dominic Thiem.

Thiem Serving: To The Final

  • 1st Serves In = 65%
  • 1st Serve Points Won = 78%
  • 2nd Serve Serve Points Won = 57%
  • Fastest 1st Serve = 224km/h
  • Fastest 2nd Serve = 176km/h
  • Average 1st Serve Speed = 181km/h
  • Average 2nd Serve Speed = 155km/h
  • Aces 33
  • Double Faults 29
  • Break Points Saved = 21/30
  • Broken = 9 times

The 29 double faults in 6 matches are a concern. That’s right around five free points a match. Thiem can afford to cough up one or two vs. Rafa, and it better be at 40-0, otherwise donating too many points will make it so much easier for Rafa to break him.

Nadal Serving: To The Final

  • 1st Serves In = 60%
  • 1st Serve Points Won = 73%
  • 2nd Serve Serve Points Won = 61%
  • Fastest 1st Serve = 200km/h
  • Fastest 2nd Serve = 174km/h
  • Average 1st Serve Speed = 178km/h
  • Average 2nd Serve Speed = 148km/h
  • Aces 14
  • Double Faults 17
  • Break Points Saved 35/45
  • Broken = 10 times.

When you compare apples to apples on all of these stats, Thiem has the slight edge, but only just. Both guys are performing well in this area. It is surprising that Rafa has more double faults than aces.

ADVANTAGE = THIEM

RETURNING

Rafa is leading the tournament in Return Games Won and Return Points Won against 1st serves. That’s substantial. If you are Thiem, that will make your head spin!

Nadal Returning: To The Final

  • Return Points Won vs. 1st Serve = 43% (No. 1)
  • Return Points Won vs. 2nd Serve = 57%
  • Return Winners = 5
  • Break Points Won = 36/76
  • Return Games Won = 44% (36/81) (No. 1)

Thiem Returning: To The Final

  • Return Points Won vs. 1st Serve = 36%
  • Return Points Won vs. 2nd Serve = 58% (T8th best)
  • Return Winners = 7
  • Break Points Won = 35/72
  • Return Games Won = 37% (35/95) (T8th best)

Nadal is the best returner on clay in the history of our sport. He is producing “those” kind of numbers to the final.

ADVANTAGE = NADAL

RALLYING

Nobody has won a higher percentage of baseline points at Roland Garros in 2018 than Rafael Nadal. This is his domain. This is his court. This is his tournament. And the baseline is the beating heart of this final. The main weapon from the back of the court is the forehand.

In today’s final, look for Nadal to run around his backhand in the Deuce court and take that forehand inside out back through the Deuce court wide to Thiem’s forehand for winner after winner. That’s his favorite pattern.

When Nadal is hitting forehands in the Deuce court, he mainly goes cross court, and then every now and then will pull the trigger down the line.

Nadal Rallying: To The Final

  • Forehand Winners = 128
  • Forehand Errors = 148
  • Backhand Winners = 40
  • Backhand Errors = 128
  • Baseline Points Won = 58.9% (454/770) (No. 1)

Thiem Rallying: To The Final

  • Forehand Winners = 87
  • Forehand Errors = 161
  • Backhand Winners = 43
  • Backhand Errors = 163
  • Baseline Points Won = 55.8% (397/711) (No. 2)

I can’t see any way that Thiem has a higher win percentage from the baseline than Nadal on this court – in this final.

ADVANTAGE = NADAL

APPROACHING

Both guys are not going to take too many risks at the front of the court in this match. They will just be coming forward to clean up. With that said, this is a nice area for both players to find some extra points for one main reason – they both like to rally from very DEEP in the court. When you see one guy move way back to defend, the opponent needs to sneak in and knock an easy volley off. It’s tough to ass from the stands!

Net Points Won

  • Nadal = 70% (71/101)
  • Thiem = 65% (72/111)

ADVANTAGE = EVEN

BETWEEN THE POINTS

THIS is where Nadas has a big advantage. So many times during this tournament I have watched him in what are normally “quieter” moments around the court when the point is not in play – and he is STILL revving himself up! He is constantly looking at Carlos Moya to create eye contact and energy with his coach.

Also, Nadal is fixating on his routine between the points. He loves to go and clean the line with his foot. He loves to walk way back and towel off. Not step on the lines. Leave through the middle of the court. Adjust his shorts. Adjust his shirt. Wipe sweat away. He is sticking to his routines like crazy, which helps to not let things get sideways. Control everything at all times.

Thiem, on the other hand, can get very negative. He can yell and scream and lose control, and then throw in some desperate, low percentage shots. He should have lost the 2nd set Tie-Break to Marco Cecchinato in the semi because of his negative attitude and outbursts. It could have cost him the match.

ADVANTAGE = NADAL

SUMMARY

Nadal wins this match in straight sets.

I expect Nadal to have 20-30 minutes in this match where things are not going his way. Where Thiem laces some backhands down the line, or crushes some big run around forehands.

Stay the course. Weather the storm.

Rafa wants this title SOOOOO BADLY!!! His body language suggests it. His enthusiasm shows it. Heck, even when he sits down between games he is still looking at his coaches box busting out a big VAMOS!

Let’s hope this match turns into a five-set thriller… but the odds are against it.

TWITTER

Below are some tweets to show you some important moments during the tournament for both players

 

 

 

 

 

For a deeper analysis of the massive impact the length of the rally has on winning a match, I highly recommend THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. Click HERE for more information about this tennis strategy product, focused on the importance of the start of the rally.

For a 20% discount, enter coupon code RG2018 at checkout. Last day is TODAY!

The First 4 Shots – Video