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Sunday, 10 June 2018 / Published in ATP Tour

2018 Roland Garros: Men’s Final Preview

For a deeper analysis of the massive impact the length of the rally has on winning a match, I highly recommend THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. Click HERE for more information about this tennis strategy product, focused on the importance of the start of the rally.

For a 20% discount, enter coupon code RG2018 at checkout. Last day is TODAY!

The First 4 Shots – Video

 

G’day from Roland Garros,

Let’s lay out cards right on the table ♥️♣️♦️♠️.

Dominic Thiem is the only player to have beaten Rafael Nadal on clay in the past two seasons. Here they are…

  1. 2018 Madrid Quarter Finals. Thiem def. Nadal 7-5, 6-3
  2. 2017 Rome Quarter Finals. Thiem def. Nadal 6-4, 6-3

Now, I want you to quickly dismiss their importance.

Nadal is 49-2 on clay the past two seasons. It is significant that the only guy to beat him on the crushed Earth will be standing across the net from him this afternoon.

Does Thiem have a plan to beat Nadal today? He says he does!

“I know how to play against him. I have a plan,” Thiem said of facing Nadal. “If I want to beat him, I have to play that way like I did in Rome and in Madrid. But I’m also aware that here it’s tougher. He likes the conditions more here than in Madrid, for sure. Best of five is also a different story.”

The three most important factors today are:

  • COURT: Philippe Chatrier is a high bouncing trampoline that accentuates Nadal’s heavy spin.
  • FIVE: Best of 5 sets is a completely different animal than best of 3. Nadal has way more time to cycle through a series of potential winning game plans in a best of 5 set match.
  • FINAL: Extra tension. Extra excitement. Extra atmosphere. Extra craziness.

Focus on these three elements instead. Nadal is 6-3 career against Thiem, and two of those wins have come here at Roland Garros.

Nadal v Thiem: At Roland Garros

  1. 2017 Semi Final. Nadal def. Thiem 6-3, 6-4, 6-0.
  2. 2014 Rd 64. Nadal def Thiem 6-2, 6-2, 6-3

In their 2017 match, Nadal saved 7/8 break points and won 76% (19/25) of his 2nd serve points. Thiem saved 4/10 break points and only won 37% (14/38) of his 2nd serve points. Expect similar pain this afternoon.

So let’s dive into some metrics that have played out for both Nadal and Thiem in their first six matches – a focus on what matters!

RALLY LENGTH

This is a very important aspect of the final to understand – so you watch the match with the right lens! More points will be played in the 0-4 shot rally length than the other two COMBINED! It’s just how our sport is organized, even with the two best players in the world facing each other.

Nadal: Points Played To The Final

  • 0-4 Shots = 55% (607 points)
  • 5-8 Shots = 27% (298 points)
  • 9+ Shots = 18% (192 points)

Thiem: Points Played To The Final

  • 0-4 Shots = 65% (773 points)
  • 5-8 Shots = 23% (276 points)
  • 9+ Shots = 11% (133 points)

So where do these two dominant clay court players find their advantage? Which rally length do they accumulate the most amount of points? It’s the 0-4 rally length – like it always is!!!

The following breakdown is their plus/minus ratio. For example, Nadal won 342 points so far in the 0-4 shot rally length. He lost 265. That makes him +77 in that rally length. You will see for both players that they craft more advantage (win more points) in 0-4 than any other rally length.

Nadal & Thiem: +/-

  • 0-4 Shots = Nadal 77  / Thiem 91
  • 5-8 Shots = Nadal 60 / Thiem 40
  • 9+ Shots = 11% Nadal 34 / Thiem 23

Whoever wins the 0-4 shot rally length has a 95% chance of winning the match. That was the percentage for the overall tournament last year. So players that won their match also won 0-4 95% of the time. It’s almost a lock. And it needs to drive your practice court!

I see Rafa winning the 0-4 rally length because he will “steal” a lot of points from Thiem’s 2nd serve, and also finish a lot of points in the three shot rally length (His own Serve +1)

ADVANTAGE: NADAL

SERVING

Let’s start with Dominic Thiem.

Thiem Serving: To The Final

  • 1st Serves In = 65%
  • 1st Serve Points Won = 78%
  • 2nd Serve Serve Points Won = 57%
  • Fastest 1st Serve = 224km/h
  • Fastest 2nd Serve = 176km/h
  • Average 1st Serve Speed = 181km/h
  • Average 2nd Serve Speed = 155km/h
  • Aces 33
  • Double Faults 29
  • Break Points Saved = 21/30
  • Broken = 9 times

The 29 double faults in 6 matches are a concern. That’s right around five free points a match. Thiem can afford to cough up one or two vs. Rafa, and it better be at 40-0, otherwise donating too many points will make it so much easier for Rafa to break him.

Nadal Serving: To The Final

  • 1st Serves In = 60%
  • 1st Serve Points Won = 73%
  • 2nd Serve Serve Points Won = 61%
  • Fastest 1st Serve = 200km/h
  • Fastest 2nd Serve = 174km/h
  • Average 1st Serve Speed = 178km/h
  • Average 2nd Serve Speed = 148km/h
  • Aces 14
  • Double Faults 17
  • Break Points Saved 35/45
  • Broken = 10 times.

When you compare apples to apples on all of these stats, Thiem has the slight edge, but only just. Both guys are performing well in this area. It is surprising that Rafa has more double faults than aces.

ADVANTAGE = THIEM

RETURNING

Rafa is leading the tournament in Return Games Won and Return Points Won against 1st serves. That’s substantial. If you are Thiem, that will make your head spin!

Nadal Returning: To The Final

  • Return Points Won vs. 1st Serve = 43% (No. 1)
  • Return Points Won vs. 2nd Serve = 57%
  • Return Winners = 5
  • Break Points Won = 36/76
  • Return Games Won = 44% (36/81) (No. 1)

Thiem Returning: To The Final

  • Return Points Won vs. 1st Serve = 36%
  • Return Points Won vs. 2nd Serve = 58% (T8th best)
  • Return Winners = 7
  • Break Points Won = 35/72
  • Return Games Won = 37% (35/95) (T8th best)

Nadal is the best returner on clay in the history of our sport. He is producing “those” kind of numbers to the final.

ADVANTAGE = NADAL

RALLYING

Nobody has won a higher percentage of baseline points at Roland Garros in 2018 than Rafael Nadal. This is his domain. This is his court. This is his tournament. And the baseline is the beating heart of this final. The main weapon from the back of the court is the forehand.

In today’s final, look for Nadal to run around his backhand in the Deuce court and take that forehand inside out back through the Deuce court wide to Thiem’s forehand for winner after winner. That’s his favorite pattern.

When Nadal is hitting forehands in the Deuce court, he mainly goes cross court, and then every now and then will pull the trigger down the line.

Nadal Rallying: To The Final

  • Forehand Winners = 128
  • Forehand Errors = 148
  • Backhand Winners = 40
  • Backhand Errors = 128
  • Baseline Points Won = 58.9% (454/770) (No. 1)

Thiem Rallying: To The Final

  • Forehand Winners = 87
  • Forehand Errors = 161
  • Backhand Winners = 43
  • Backhand Errors = 163
  • Baseline Points Won = 55.8% (397/711) (No. 2)

I can’t see any way that Thiem has a higher win percentage from the baseline than Nadal on this court – in this final.

ADVANTAGE = NADAL

APPROACHING

Both guys are not going to take too many risks at the front of the court in this match. They will just be coming forward to clean up. With that said, this is a nice area for both players to find some extra points for one main reason – they both like to rally from very DEEP in the court. When you see one guy move way back to defend, the opponent needs to sneak in and knock an easy volley off. It’s tough to ass from the stands!

Net Points Won

  • Nadal = 70% (71/101)
  • Thiem = 65% (72/111)

ADVANTAGE = EVEN

BETWEEN THE POINTS

THIS is where Nadas has a big advantage. So many times during this tournament I have watched him in what are normally “quieter” moments around the court when the point is not in play – and he is STILL revving himself up! He is constantly looking at Carlos Moya to create eye contact and energy with his coach.

Also, Nadal is fixating on his routine between the points. He loves to go and clean the line with his foot. He loves to walk way back and towel off. Not step on the lines. Leave through the middle of the court. Adjust his shorts. Adjust his shirt. Wipe sweat away. He is sticking to his routines like crazy, which helps to not let things get sideways. Control everything at all times.

Thiem, on the other hand, can get very negative. He can yell and scream and lose control, and then throw in some desperate, low percentage shots. He should have lost the 2nd set Tie-Break to Marco Cecchinato in the semi because of his negative attitude and outbursts. It could have cost him the match.

ADVANTAGE = NADAL

SUMMARY

Nadal wins this match in straight sets.

I expect Nadal to have 20-30 minutes in this match where things are not going his way. Where Thiem laces some backhands down the line, or crushes some big run around forehands.

Stay the course. Weather the storm.

Rafa wants this title SOOOOO BADLY!!! His body language suggests it. His enthusiasm shows it. Heck, even when he sits down between games he is still looking at his coaches box busting out a big VAMOS!

Let’s hope this match turns into a five-set thriller… but the odds are against it.

TWITTER

Below are some tweets to show you some important moments during the tournament for both players

 

Give this some thought… 🐨💭
As good as he is during the point…
He is even better between them!
Every opponent talks about how strong he mentally. That. Separates.
He doesn’t go away.
He doesn’t self destruct.
He doesn’t panic.#Nadal #RG18 pic.twitter.com/OR7quN1Tuf

— Craig O’Shannessy (@BrainGameTennis) June 8, 2018

 

Off to the races 🐎🐎🐎🐎🐎#Nadal #RG18 pic.twitter.com/abaEEIsMEa

— Craig O’Shannessy (@BrainGameTennis) June 7, 2018

 

#Nadal 46 63 21 serving with a break. Tennis is as much about energy & confidence as anything else. #Nadal has it in spades today ♠️. Schwartzman has not found his mojo yet, but THAT was a massive hold to stop the slide. #RG18 pic.twitter.com/RqNKOXlEyy

— Craig O’Shannessy (@BrainGameTennis) June 7, 2018

 

46 63 62 41
As #Nadal surges to the finish line 🏁, the line cleaning becomes more important. The toweling off. The myriad of extra little things this man also achieves to do while defeating an opponent is simply astounding. #RG18 pic.twitter.com/AMbxL9oSEW

— Craig O’Shannessy (@BrainGameTennis) June 7, 2018

 

#Nadal v #Schwartzman #RG18
The times on the right are how long it takes for contact to be made on one side of the court, and then on the other = just under a second and a half. Taking just a tenth of a second away helps you find control in the point. 🕐 pic.twitter.com/cleaXkdrHV

— Craig O’Shannessy (@BrainGameTennis) June 6, 2018

For a deeper analysis of the massive impact the length of the rally has on winning a match, I highly recommend THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. Click HERE for more information about this tennis strategy product, focused on the importance of the start of the rally.

For a 20% discount, enter coupon code RG2018 at checkout. Last day is TODAY!

The First 4 Shots – Video

 

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THE FIRST 4 SHOTS

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

Short Ball Hunter

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

Num3ers

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Dou8les Num3ers

Doubles Numbers

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

between the points

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

25 golden rules of singles strategy

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

25 golden rules of doubles

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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