G’day from New York. đź—˝
We are now getting to the pointy end of the tournament. Here’s the quarter-final match-ups in the men’s draw.
- Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev
- Jack Draper v Alex De Minaur
- Taylor Fritz v Alexander Zverev
- Grigor Dimitrov v Frances Tiafoe
Let’s take a slightly different viewpoint of the eight players by evaluating where in the rally they are dominating in their run to the semi-finals. The three rally lengths in tennis are:
- 0-4 Shots
- 5-8 Shots
- 9+ Shots
0-4 SHOT RALLIES (FIRST STRIKE)
Jannik Sinner is the best player left in the draw at crafting an advantage in the 0-4 shot rally length.
As you can see from the table above, Sinner has won 94 more points (276 won / 182 lost) than he has lost in the 0-4 shot category. This is the most important of the three rally lengths, representing around 70% of all points. For those new to watching Jack Draper compete, you can clearly see that he also likes to strike early in the point.
The two most interesting players on this list (to me) are Daniil Medvedev and Frances Tiafoe. I did not expect to see Medvedev so high on this list, and I also did not expect to see Tiafoe at the bottom.
It will be virtually impossible for these eight players to win their quarter-final match and not win more points than they lose in this category.
5-8 SHOT RALLIES (PATTERNS OF PLAY)
Alexander Zverev surges to the top of this list, outlining the best performance in 5-8 shot rallies.
The first thing that strikes you is that Sinner is last. That’s a surprise.
Zverev, Dimitrov, and Medvedev all form a pack at the top, while De Minaur, Draper, Fritz, and Tiafoe still put up healthy numbers in the middle. But for Sinner to be only +7 is concerning for the Italian. He plays Medvedev, who has clearly been feeling more comfortable in mid-length rallies.
9+ SHOT RALLIES (EXTENDED RALLIES)
Alex De Minaur is the star performer in long rallies to the quarter-finals.
What’s fascinating is that Draper, Zverev, and Medvedev have all lost more points than they have won in extended rallies of 9+ Shots.
De Minaur faces Draper in their quarter-final. It’s clear from the three tables that Draper has the firepower to end points early and will definitely have an advantage over De Minaur with that game style. If De Minaur can survive the early barrage, he will win the lion’s share of longer rallies against Draper.
SUMMARY
Rally length easily identifies a player’s game style. It identifies where they feel most comfortable and where they outperform their opponents.
For example, De Minaur and Tiafoe sit at the bottom of the list in 0-4 shot rallies but rise to the top of the list in 9+ rallies. They want to get their teeth into the point. They want to grind their opponents. They want to make it a physical battle where their strengths can shine.
Then you have the hybrid rally length of 5-8 shots, which enables players to set up the point in 0-4 shots and finish it in 5-8 shots. They don’t risk too much at the start of the point and don’t want to let the advantage slip by getting into double-digit rallies where anything can happen.
It’s interesting to note that no player is ranked in the top four in all three tables. Everyone has their own specific way of constructing the point.
Let’s hope for four great matches!