Sunday, 11 June 2017 / Published in Uncategorized

The Wawrinka Blueprint to Defeat Nadal

Can Stan possibly defeat Rafa today?

Stan beat Novak here in 2015. There’s your huckleberry…

G’day from Roland Garros!

In order to “flash forward” to figure out who is going to win today’s Roland Garros men’s final between Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka, we need to “flash back” to remind ourselves what is possible for Stan on Court Philippe Chatrier…

2015 Roland Garros Final: Wawrinka def. Djokovic 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4

Power toppled consistency. Down the line dominated cross court. Offense beat defense, and coming forward to the net beat staying back behind the baseline.

Winners:

Stan 60
Novak 30

Stan was not supposed to beat Novak. He was not supposed to hit double the amount of winners. Novak was winning 56% of baseline points leading to the final, but won only 44% against the Swiss.

Stan simply overpowered Novak, and if he is to win today, he must do EXACTLY the same against Rafa. The blueprint for Stan was his 2015 victory over Novak. It’s time for a rinse, and repeat…

Wawrinka’s Forehand

Stan’s forehand was by far the most dominant shot on the court, blasting 26 winners. Consider this – every other groundstroke winner on BOTH sides of the net totaled one more at 27.

Stan hit 15 forehand winners standing in the deuce court, including seven spectacular frozen ropes, hit as hard as he could crush the ball straight down the line.

Stan also hit 10 forehand winners standing in the Ad court, including seven run-around winners back behind Novak’s backhand, and added one return winner on the second point of the deciding set.

The forehand MUST be the biggest shot on the court once again today. No other shot matters as much for Stan as his forehand.

Backhand Down The Line

The beauty of this shot for Stan is that it will get the ball away from Nadal’s more lethal forehand – making the Spaniard have to hit more of his less potent backhands. Those backhands will typically come back cross court to Stan’s forehand. Genius…

With the 2015 final against Novak in the balance, Stan’s backhand down the line turned the lights out on Novak. Stan won the last three games of the match, hitting five pure backhand down the line winners in the final 22 points of the fourth set.

Stan At Net

A massive turning point was Stan coming back from 0-40 at 3-4 in the fourth set. Novak had won seven straight points from 3-3, 15-40, and the match was wildly swinging back his way. From 3-4, 0-40, Stan won five straight points on serve, finishing at the net on four of them, with the other being a service winner. When push came to shove, the front of the court is where he shifted the battle against Novak, and that dynamic is exactly the same today v Rafa.

Overall, Stan won 70 per cent (23/33) at the net, and 51 per cent (84/163) at the baseline.

2017 Roland Garros

Forehand Winners

Stan 115
Rafa 76

Backhand Winners

Stan 57
Rafa 31

Baseline Points Won

Stan 50%
Rafa 60%

Can Stan really upset Rafa today? It’s a huge ask. Playing Rafa on THIS court, with a 10th title on the line, seems incredibly daunting. But Stan climbed the mountain against Novak in 2015. The only player that is going to beat Rafa is a player than can play THROUGH him with power. Stan is the best player of the other 127 in the draw to make that happen.

Let’s hope for a great final!

Best,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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The Wawrinka Blueprint to Defeat Nadal

Can Stan possibly defeat Rafa today?

Stan beat Novak here in 2015. There’s your huckleberry…

2017 Roland Garros