Tuesday, 07 March 2017 / Published in ATP Tour

The 3 BIG Questions…

Know thy opponent.

You are the second most important person on a tennis court.

Evgeny Donskoy defeated Roger Federer 3-6, 7-6(7), 7-6(5)

Roger Federer’s shock loss in the second round of the 2017 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships to #116 ranked Evgeny Donskoy looks like a complete shock – on the surface.

Consider this…

The Russian saved three match points.
Federer served for the match at 5-4 in the 3rd.
Federer led 5-1 in the 3rd set breaker. He lost six straight points.
Federer made 73% 1st serves. Donskoy was at a lowly 48%.
Federer hit 38 winners to Donkoy’s 28.
Donskoy won 99 points. Federer won 104.
Donskoy only made 17 unforced errors to Federer’s 31

Those facts are all pretty amazing. A very unlikely upset on the surface. But when you listen to Roger’s post-match interview, you get the real insights into how it happened. It’s important to know that this was the first time they had played. Here’s what he had to say…

“”I just didn’t know Donskoy. So many times I just didn’t know what his patterns were. I didn’t know what his preferences are. If he does hit a big forehand down the line, is that normal or is that just right now? Is he going to do that on big shots, big points or not?”Roger Federer

That’s all you need to know.

That quote makes all the stats and the final result completely understandable. Even for Roger Federer, the match is not all about him.

The 3 BIGGEST questions in tennis.

Who am I?
Who are you?
Who is the best?

For this match, Roger had the answers to questions #1 and #3. He knew what he wanted to do. He knew what the overarching patterns and percentages of the best players in the world. After all, he helped forge them.

But he didn’t know Donskoy. He didn’t know the answer to question #2, and that’s the primary reason why he lost.

A little more from Roger…

“All that stuff got me a little bit tense, and I could never quite play freely, which is quite surprising, considering how I played in Australia.”Roger Federer

It clearly effected his mind. We never know the internal dialogue that goes on inside a player’s mind, but it plays a pivotal role in the outcome of the match. Not knowing Donskoy’s patterns of play, his tendencies, his favorite spots, really played havoc in Roger’s mind.

“I had my chances. I should somehow close it out. Don’t know how it got away, but he did very well. It’s a rough one, for sure,” Federer said. “But tennis is this way. Margins are small. [A] fast court like here, you can’t find much rhythm. Next thing you know, you’re struggling.”Roger Federer

One more point and he moves on. One more point and this was just another Federer win, albeit a close one.

“I just think it’s still the beginning of the comeback and [I] have to take the positives out of playing again at a tournament where I feel I’m quite healthy and I’m happy I got over the injury I sustained at the Australian Open.”Roger Federer

Always look on the bright side. Always look for the positives in a loss. Don’t be devastated. Let the losses go as quickly as you can, and focus on all that is good with your game.

“I just never really got going tonight and sort of felt heavy. But, look, those matches happen frequently, where you just have to somehow find a way to come through. Tonight I just didn’t. I was convinced that if I came through tonight I was going to feel better tomorrow. It’s OK.”Roger Federer

It is OK. In fact, it’s a great lesson for all of us. Even if we have the toolset of a Roger Federer, it’s still not enough. It’s still important to know as much about the opponent as you possibly can.

LESSON: You are the second most important person on a tennis court.

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The 25 Golden Rules of Singles Strategy.
The 25 Golden Rules of Doubles Strategy.
The First 4 Shots.
Short Ball Hunter.
Between The Points.
Num3ers
Dou8les Num3ers

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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The 3 BIG Questions…

Know thy opponent.

You are the second most important person on a tennis court.