G’day from New York, đź—˝
It will be baseline armageddon on Arthur Ashe tonight for the US Open men’s final between Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz.
It will feel like two guys with sledgehammers repeatedly going at each other across the net. Throwing haymakers. Throwing the kitchen sink. Throwing everything they can possibly throw to achieve Grand Slam glory.
It’s important to know how baseline points won are calculated.
For example, when the point ends, and Sinner is at the baseline and commits an error, that is a baseline point lost for him.
Here’s the key. Fritz can be anywhere.
He could have been at the net or the baseline. Because of this, baseline win percentages are lower than you anticipate. The average baseline points won at the US Open this year is 47%. Net points won are at 65%. Baseline points won are calculated against both of them depending on where your opponent is standing when the point ends.
Let’s break down baseline performance to the final for Sinner and Fritz to understand how baseline exchanges will play out.
Sinner Baseline Points (20 Sets)
- Won = 326
- Lost = 300
- Total = 626
- Advantage = +26 points
It’s jaw-dropping that Sinner, arguably the best baseline ball striker in the world, has only won 26 more points than he has lost from the back of the court to the final. He is only about one point a set better than his opponents from the baseline.
The first thing to understand is that the back of the court looks like their comfort zone. It’s not. It’s a statistical nightmare for players at all levels of the game. Again, the tournament average for baseline points won is just 47% (13,802/29,403). You have got to win points against your opponent at the baseline and also at the net.
Fritz Baseline Points (22 Sets)
- Won = 328
- Lost = 331
- Total = 659
- Advantage -3 pointsÂ
I had to do a double-take to ensure these data points were right. Fritz has lost more points than he has won the baseline.
The key to remember is that both players have not lost a match. They have played six matches, won six matches, and spent the lion’s share of their time at the baseline battling opponents.
MAKE THE BASELINE A STRENGTH OF YOUR GAME
Webinar 1: Winning Singles Strategy
Webinar 7: Baseline Strategy & Patterns
Webinar 26: ABCD Baseline Locations
Let’s dig deeper and understand forehand and backhand performance for both players.
Forehand Performance
- Sinner = 79 winners / 153 errors = -74
- Fritz = 79 winners / 184 errors = -105
Interestingly, they have the same total of winners, but Sinner has committed 31 fewer errors.
Backhand PerformanceÂ
- Sinner = 36 winners / 143 errors = -107
- Fritz = 28 winners / 159 errors = -131
Sinner also has the edge here with more winners and fewer errors.
Expect Sinner to edge Fritz in this area like he has with every other opponent.
Now, another layer. Here are the baseline win percentages for Sinner’s six opponents.
Sinner’s Opponents: Baseline Win Percentage In Their Matches
- Draper = 38% (44/117)
- Medvedev = 40% (50/125)
- Paul = 39% (44/114)
- O’Connell = 36% (29/81)
- Michelsen = 45% (33/74)
- McDonald 40% (41/103)
- TOTAL =39% (241/614)
None of Sinner’s six opponents won more than 45% of their baseline points against the world number one. It’s okay for Sinner to only be winning 52% of his baseline points if his opponents can only combine to win 39%. Now, let’s look at Fritz’s opponents.
Fritz’s Opponents: Baseline Win Percentage In Their Matches
- Tiafoe = 50% (69/137)
- Zverev = 42% (57/135)
- Ruud = 44% (47/106)
- Comesana = 35% (32/93)
- Berrettini = 41% (31/89)
- Carabelli = 42% (34/83)
- TOTAL = 42% (270/643)
This is another area where Sinner sticks his neck out in front. Sinner’s opponents only win 39% from the back of their court in their matches. Fritz’s opponents are at 42%. Advantage Italy.
POSITION A = THE PLACE TO FORCE FOREHAND ERRORS
The court is divided into four equal areas – Positions A, B, C, and D.
Both players are solid at trading backhands from Position D to D. Sinner can rush the ball, and Fritz is very adept at angling the ball off the court. They will essentially be very even in this area.
The player who can exploit Position A will gain a massive advantage in the final. Points will naturally start in the Ad court – trading blows in C and D. The player who can either hit a run-around forehand or a backhand down the line to Position A will gain the upper hand from the back of the court. Position A is where most forehand errors occur. The running forehand is something both players will be looking to attack.
Look for this in the final. Rallying will be done to C and D. Finishing will be done to A.
NET PLAY
So, if the baseline is a tough place to forge an advantage, should both Sinner and Fritz be looking to end points at the net? Absolutely!
Net Points Won
- Sinner = 73% (112/153)
- Fritz = 72% (91/127)
Both players are winning right at three out of every four points at the net. They should definitely look to get to the net as often as possible to finish points.
Serve & VolleyÂ
- Sinner = 63% (12/19)
- Fritz = 100% (4/4)
Neither player has really tapped into their full potential serving and volleying to the final. Remember when Rafael Nadal defeated Daniil Medvedev in the 2019 US Open final? Both players turned to serve and volley to win points because the baseline was so tough. Nadal only won 47% from the baseline but won 85% (17/20) serving and volleying in the final. Medvedev only won 39% from the baseline but won 76% (22/29) serving and volleying.
Neither played really planned on serving and volleying in the final, but we ended with 49 serve and volley points in that bruising final.
Sinner is the favorite. It feels like Fritz is really up for the fight and has been waiting his entire tennis career for this moment. He is going to up.
Have a great match, gentlemen!
Craig