Saturday, 31 August 2024 / Published in Rally Length, US Open

Short Rallies Rule The World (Especially In New York)

G’day from New York, 🗽

I first discovered rally length data at the 2015 Australian Open. IBM was the data provider, and they created a brand new statistic by breaking down the length of the rally into the following three categories.

Rally Length

0-4 Shots
5-8 Shots
9+ Shots

Rally length is predicated on the ball hitting the court rather than the strings, which is why we have a rally length of zero, which is a double fault. The serve did not land in the court.

IBM displayed the rally length statistic match by match without aggregation, so I busted out a spreadsheet and added up all the data. What I found was profound and has globally changed how we view and practice the sport for the last decade.

The reality is tennis is overflowing with short rallies, but we tend to dismiss them. Short rallies go to our short term memory and we delete them, assuming they are unimportant. Short rallies are seen as a failure to reach the promised land of the long rally where consistency, repetition, shot tolerance, grinding, and even suffering reign supreme.

What’s fascinating is that the 2015 Australian Open men’s totals are basically the same as the 2024 US Open men’s data through the first two rounds = 96 matches of 127 to be played)

US Open Men’s Rally Length Totals

IMPROVE YOUR GAME IN THE 0-4 SHOT RALLY LENGTH

Course: The First 4 Shots

Webinar 33: First Strike Tennis

Webinar 16: Serve +1 Strategy

Webinar 17: Return +1 Strategy

Webinar 34: The 8 Serve Locations

Why is the length of the rally so important? Glad you asked…

Firstly, it entirely busts the myth that consistency is the most essential element of your game. Long rallies of 9+ shots only make up 9.5% of the points through the first two rounds of the 2024 US Open men’s draw. Who cares???

We are now evolving out of the era where 90% of tennis lessons focus on hitting lots of groundstrokes (especially cross-court) in lessons, and the development of the serve and return are just an afterthought. We have correctly stopped spending 90% of our time on the practice court working on something that happens less than 10% of the time in a match.

It’s essential to recognize that in the short rallies of 0-4 shots, each player only hits a maximum of two shots in the court. For the server, it’s the serve and their Serve +1. For the returner, it’s the return of serve and their Return +1 shot.

Let that sink in. Seven rallies out of every 10 involve either player only hitting the ball in the court a maximum of two shots each.

There are two BIG takeaways from US Open rally length data.

Paradigm Change. Short rallies have always been and will always be the most abundant rally length. The start of the rally is challenging, with the serve and return of serve very different than regular groundstrokes. We play a sport of short rallies where errors flow freely. Tennis is generally around 70% errors, but that spikes to 80% in the 0-4 shot rally length. One of the best things you can do to win the battle of the 0-4 rally length is to put a premium on making the first two shots you hit. You need to read that again.
Practice Court. We need to serve more. We need to be better “spot” servers because we cut the service boxes into eight locations. Working on hitting target areas in practice goes a long way to holding serve because you can target weaknesses with the return of serve. The least practiced shot in tennis is the return of serve, so we need to elevate return work to the start of the lesson instead of relegating it to the end. Then, specific work on Serve +1 and Return +1 needs to be done. Hit a serve and work on your defensive forehand when that second serve is cranked right back at you down the middle of the court.

SUMMARY

The length of the rally greatly matters.

Players with simple, repeatable, injury-free serve motions do better at the start of the point. Hitting your targets when serving is an awesome attribute. Then it’s all about returning deep down the middle of the court to take time away from the server to prepare and also give the server no angle to immediately attack.

I want you to clearly understand that winning the battle of 0-4 shot rallies has a greater connection to winning the match than simply anything else you do in a match. It’s that powerful.

As you watch the US Open from the third round onwards this weekend and next week, pay close attention to who is winning the shorter rallies. It will be the player walking to the net with a smile on their face to shake hands at the end of the match.

Cheers,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Short Rallies Rule The World (Especially In New York)

G’day from New York, 🗽

US Open Men’s Rally Length Totals