Thursday, 23 December 2021 / Published in 0-4 Shots, ATP Tour, Australian Open, Roger Federer

Roger Federer: The 2018 Australian Open Final = His 2022 Blueprint.

The First 4 Shots Video – Learn More HERE

The last major Roger Federer won was the 2018 Australian Open.

When Roger finally returns to the tour in 2022 he needs to look no further than how he won the 2018 Aussie Open final against Marin Cilic for the blueprint to once again be successful at the pinnacle of our sport. Roger defeated Marin 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 in the final, dominating short rallies to reach the coveted 20 Grand Slam mark.

Rally length is divided up into three categories:

Rally Length

0-4 Shots
5-8 Shots
9+ Shots

Keeping points short and not putting irrelevant miles on his legs will be a key to a successful comeback in 2022. In the 2018 final against Marin, more than three out of every four points were decided in the first four shots – meaning that each player only hit a maximum of two shots in the court. The pie chart below is a great visual of how Roger performs at his peak.

Rally Length Played: 2018 Australian Open Final – Federer v Cilic

What you will immediately notice from the pie chart is how substantial the 0-4 shot rally length was in the final. It’s a huge chunk!

Now, I know what you are thinking…

If a player dominates in the 0-4 shot rally length, is it enough to secure victory in the match?
Or put another way, can you win the large portion (0-4 shots) and lose the rest and that be enough to win?

The answer is a resounding YES!

If you like this analysis, also read The Roger Federer Library

Here’s the breakdown of points won & lost in all three rally lengths in the 2018 Australian Open final.

Rally Length – Points Won

0-4 Shots = Federer 120 / Cilic 92 (28 point advantage for Federer)
5-8 Shots = Federer 25 / Cilic 27 (2 point advantage for Cilic)
9+ Shots = Federer 7 / Cilic 9 (2 point advantage for Cilic)

The match data above clearly displays a line in the sand right at the fourth shot in the rally. If either player hit just two shots in the court (a four-shot rally), then Roger held an overwhelming 28 point advantage. If a fifth shot landed in the court, Marin took the honors 36-32.

As Roger prepares to have one last crack at winning titles on the ATP Tour, he definitely needs to focus his practice on the four specific shots that occur at the start of the point, which are:

Serve
Return
Serve +1
Return +1

If Roger can find his “A Game” with these particular shots, then one last season in the sun is definitely possible.

Oh, and by the way, Roger served-and-volleyed seven times in the final and won every point. He won a resounding 80% (41/51) of serve and volley points for the tournament. Serve and volley is an aggressive tactic ideally suited to Roger’s game that definitely finds its home in the critical 0-4 shot rally length.

For more analysis of the 2018 Australian Open final, read my ATP breakdown here.

Best,

Craig

If you like this analysis, also read

Roger Federer From Three Rows Back

Roger Federer’s Forehand Return vs. Forehand Groundie

Roger Federer: #RG19 Break Point Conversion King

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Roger Federer: The 2018 Australian Open Final = His 2022 Blueprint.

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The First 4 Shots Video – Learn More HERE

The last major Roger Federer won was the 2018 Australian Open.

Rally Length

Rally Length Played: 2018 Australian Open Final – Federer v Cilic