Is 2017 Rafa’s year… already?
The stats are overwhelmingly in his favor.
Firstly, let’s understand the two separate rankings in men’s tennis.
- Singles Ranking (best 18 tournament results from past 52 weeks).
- Emirates ATP Race To London: year-end No. 1 (only 2017 results).
What we are focused on here is the second one – the year-end No. 1, which is only about 2017. It’s an extremely converted award for the best player of each season.
Rafa has been year-end No. 1 three times:
- 2008
- 2010
- 2013
- 2017?
One of the key elements of our game that I am always focused on is the dynamic of getting ahead – playing from in front. The more you get out in front in our sport, the more you tend to stay there.
This applies with making a first serve, instead of missing it. It also has the same impact going up 15-0 in a game, rather than down 0-15. Same thing goes for winning the first set of a match. Nobody in the history of our sport has a winning record after dropping the first set of their match. Nobody.
The ATP website just put out some fascinating data that supports the “getting ahead” dynamic – in the race to year-end No. 1.
Consider this:
For the past 13 seasons (2004-2016), the year-end No. 1 player has either been ranked No. 1 or No. 2 after Roland Garros.
WOW!
The No. 3 player in the world, Dominic Thiem, is much more “rank outsider” than “contender”.
We are right around the mid point of the season, with two Grand Slam events and four Masters 1000 still to come – not to mention eight ATP 500’s, and the end of season Nitto ATP World Tour Finals (1500 points).
There seems to be so much tennis ahead of us, but history suggests that the goose may already be cooked.
Following are the rankings AFTER Roland Garros for the past 13 seasons. The eventual year-end No. 1 is in bold.
2017
- Rafael Nadal – 6,915 points
- Roger Federer – 4,045 points
2016
- Novak Djokovic – 7,950 points
- Andy Murray – 4,725 points
2015
- Novak Djokovic – 7,585 points
- Andy Murray – 4,440 points
2014
- Rafael Nadal – 6,465 points
- Novak Djokovic – 5,250 points
2013
- Rafael Nadal – 7,000 points
- Novak Djokovic – 5,030 points
2012
- Rafael Nadal – 6,750 points
- Novak Djokovic – 6,120 points
2011
- Novak Djokovic – 7,695 points
- Rafael Nadal – 6,390 points
2010
- Rafael Nadal – 6,300 points
- Roger Federer – 3,285 points
2009
- Rafael Nadal – 6885 points
- Roger Federer – 5,460 points
2008
- Rafael Nadal – 710 points
- Novak Djokovic 611 points
2007
- Rafael Nadal – 886 pojnts
- Roger Federer – 801 points
2006
- Roger Federer – 772 points
- Rafael Nadal – 584 points
2005
- Roger Federer – 710 points
- Rafael Nadal – 665 points
2004
- Roger Federer – 546 points
- Guillermo Coria – 449 points
Here’s the breakdown of being ranked No. 1 or No. 2 after Roland Garros, and going on to being the No. 1 player at the end of the year.
- No. 1 after Roland Garros = No. 1 year-end EIGHT times.
- No. 2 after Roland Garros = No. 1 year-end FIVE times.
Nadal has been ranked in the top two after Roland Garros in an astounding 11 of the past 14 seasons.
Will Rafa finish No. 1? It’s an intriguing thought that the 31-year-old Spaniard is poised to return back to the pinnacle of our sport. Click here to read the ATP analysis.
Best,
Craig