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Tennis Serve Statistics – The Ideal First Serve Percentage

For tennis fans, analysts, players, and coaches, first serve percentage is a widely debated topic. It is arguably the most important tennis serve statistic. Yes, even more so than serve speed. Here are the averages for the Men’s and Women’s professional tours.

62 is the ideal first serve percentage

Men First Serve Average = 58%

Women First Serve Average = 60%

First Serve Percentage Goal = 62% 

Making first serves is a delicate balance between power & consistency.

The sweet spot is 62%.

Here’s why…

Is it possible to have a first serve percentage too high?

This is definitely an area that studying analytics can shed light on what the goals should be. On the surface, it’s a ridiculous question. Of course, you want to get as many first serves into play as possible. That seems like common sense. But it’s not. Here’s why.

The first serve is a freebie. It’s the only shot in tennis that doesn’t count against you if you miss it. It’s a free weapon that can really go a long way to winning matches, but there are natural percentages at work relating to how hard you hit it, and how often you can make that harder serve into the service box.

Also at play is the direct relationship between the speed you hit it, and the returner’s ability to get it back in play.

Hit it too hard and you are probably going to miss it. Hit it too soft and the opponent will have little trouble returning it.

Getting the number right is a critical factor in holding serve more often.

2012 US Open Men’s Final 1st Serve % = 62%

2012 US Open Women’s Final 1st Serve % = 62%

Men’s Tennis Serve Statistics

So let’s start exploring. The following tables represent what you would think are the best stats with first serve % – the highest first serve percentage. But as you will soon discover, everyone that made 70% and above for the tournament (six players), only won a combined two matches. Five of the six didn’t win a match!

Best 1st Serve Percentage – 70% & Above

Player 1st Serve %Matches Won
Santiago Giraldo75%0
Gilles Simon74%2
Alex Bogomolov Jr 72%0
Ricardo Mello72%0
Jurgen Melzer70%0
Donald Young70%0
Total Matches Won2
That’s not what you would expect. Now let’s look at the other end of the spectrum – the players with the worst first serve percentage for the tournament.

Worst 1st Serve Percentage – 50% and below

Player 1st Serve %Matches Won
Marcos Baghdatis49%1
Radek Stepanek49%0
Tatsuma Ito48%0
Benoit Paire48%1
Lleyton Hewitt48%2
Malek Jaziri47%0
Tobias Kamke47%0
Stan Wawrinka46%3
Oliver Rochus43%0
-Total 7
 Ok, so all the players above 70% won 2 matches and all the players under 50% won 7 matches. That’s not something you would expect to see, but it makes perfect sense. You have got to hit your serve! The players making 70% and above are not the biggest servers in the game and suffer from a lack of pop. Power, not consistency, is the missing factor.

Women’s Tennis Serve Statistics

We already know that serve speed is lower in the women’s game, so the effects are not quite as noticeable. Both the highest 12 and the lowest 12 first serve percentages for the tournament won 6 matches. One thing to take note of it Sara Errani. She is a total “outlier” with her numbers. For example, for the entire tournament, her fastest first serve speed was the slowest of all players at 95mph (152.9kph). So she has the slowest first serve, but is the only player, male or female, to average making over 80%.

When it all boils down to it, the success of Sara Errani’s career depends very little on her serve. Her strengths, such as how to dissect an opponent, fight like crazy, defend incredibly well, and hardly ever miss, are how she does so well in our sport. In a lot of ways, her serve stats are pretty much irrelevant and don’t help us understand what’s really happening in this part of the game.

Highest 12 Women’s First Serve Percentage

Player1st Serve %Matches Won
Sara Errani83%4
Ksenia Pervak79%0
Alexandra Cadantu78%0
Julia Cohen74%0
Lesia Tsurenko74%0
Caroline Wozniacki74%0
Daniela Huntuchova 73%0
Mathilda Johansson72%0
Olga Govortsova72%2
Petra Martic71%0
Shuai Peng71%0
Arantxa Rus70%0
Total 6
So, the 12 players with the highest 1st serve percentage won the same amount of matches (6) as the lowest 12. But if you take Errani out of the equation, the worst 12 fared better than the highest 12 – just like the guys.

Lowest 12 Women’s First Serve Percentage

Players1st Serve %Matches Won
Melinda Czink 51%0
Ana Ivanovic 51%4
L. Arruabarrena-Vecino50%1
Agnes Szavay 49%0
Stephanie Foretz Gacon49%0
A. Pavlyuchenkova49%1
Marina Erakovic48%0
Francesca Schiavone48%0
Elina Svitolina45%0
Coco Vandeweghe45%0
Julia Glushko 45%0
Monica Niculescu 42%0
TOTAL 6
 

What is the ideal first serve percentage?

Let’s start this process by recognizing that it is purely objective. It will differ from player to player, but I think we can narrow the process down and come up something that makes sense.

All-Time Serve Stats

Only 13 players since stats were first officially recorded by the ATP in 1991 have a 1st serve average of 70% or more. That’s definitely not a sweet spot of the sport.

Here are some big names for us to examine.

Player 1st Serve % LifetimeMatches
Guillermo Vilas 70%1,186
Rafael Nadal 69%825
John Isner 68%380
Nikolay Davydenko 67%788
Ivo Karlovic 66%483
Mats Wilander66%741
Jimmy Connors 65%1,531
Andy Roddick65%789
Novak Djokovic65%712
J.M. Del Potro63%422
David Ferrer63%870
Andre Agassi63%1,108
Roger Federer62%1,117
Jim Courier 62%717
Patrick Rafter62%521
Milos Raonic62%244
Thomas Muster62%854
Richard Gasquet62%589
Todd Martin 62%626
Stefan Edberg61%1,021
Kei Nishikori61%280
Gael Monfils61%484
Fernando Gonzalez 61%545
Philipp Kohlschreiber 60%568
Pete Sampras59%961
Feliciano Lopez59%688
Carlos Moya59%867
Tommy Haas58%850
Greg Rusedski 58%693
Tim Henman58%733
Marcelo Rios 58%548
Boris Becker 57%886
John McEnroe 57%1,031
Ivan Lendl 56%1,285
Bjorn Borg56%729
Marat Safin 55%653
Lleyton Hewitt 54%809
 62% seems to be exactly where you want to be. It’s not too high, and it’s not too low. It’s a benchmark that is an ideal blend of power and consistency. 62% is the specific goal to try and attain.

 

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