Tennis Serve Statistics – The Ideal First Serve Percentage
For tennis fans, analysts, players, and coaches, first serve percentage is a widely debated topic. It is arguably the most important tennis serve statistic. Yes, even more so than serve speed. Here are the averages for the Men’s and Women’s professional tours.
Men First Serve Average = 58%
Women First Serve Average = 60%
First Serve Percentage Goal = 62%
Making first serves is a delicate balance between power & consistency.
The sweet spot is 62%.
Here’s why…
Is it possible to have a first serve percentage too high?
This is definitely an area that studying analytics can shed light on what the goals should be. On the surface, it’s a ridiculous question. Of course, you want to get as many first serves into play as possible. That seems like common sense. But it’s not. Here’s why.
The first serve is a freebie. It’s the only shot in tennis that doesn’t count against you if you miss it. It’s a free weapon that can really go a long way to winning matches, but there are natural percentages at work relating to how hard you hit it, and how often you can make that harder serve into the service box.
Also at play is the direct relationship between the speed you hit it, and the returner’s ability to get it back in play.
Hit it too hard and you are probably going to miss it. Hit it too soft and the opponent will have little trouble returning it.
Getting the number right is a critical factor in holding serve more often.
2012 US Open Men’s Final 1st Serve % = 62%
2012 US Open Women’s Final 1st Serve % = 62%
Men’s Tennis Serve Statistics
So let’s start exploring. The following tables represent what you would think are the best stats with first serve % – the highest first serve percentage. But as you will soon discover, everyone that made 70% and above for the tournament (six players), only won a combined two matches. Five of the six didn’t win a match!
Best 1st Serve Percentage – 70% & Above
Player | 1st Serve % | Matches Won |
---|---|---|
Santiago Giraldo | 75% | 0 |
Gilles Simon | 74% | 2 |
Alex Bogomolov Jr | 72% | 0 |
Ricardo Mello | 72% | 0 |
Jurgen Melzer | 70% | 0 |
Donald Young | 70% | 0 |
Total Matches Won | 2 |
Worst 1st Serve Percentage – 50% and below
Player | 1st Serve % | Matches Won |
---|---|---|
Marcos Baghdatis | 49% | 1 |
Radek Stepanek | 49% | 0 |
Tatsuma Ito | 48% | 0 |
Benoit Paire | 48% | 1 |
Lleyton Hewitt | 48% | 2 |
Malek Jaziri | 47% | 0 |
Tobias Kamke | 47% | 0 |
Stan Wawrinka | 46% | 3 |
Oliver Rochus | 43% | 0 |
- | Total | 7 |
Women’s Tennis Serve Statistics
We already know that serve speed is lower in the women’s game, so the effects are not quite as noticeable. Both the highest 12 and the lowest 12 first serve percentages for the tournament won 6 matches. One thing to take note of it Sara Errani. She is a total “outlier” with her numbers. For example, for the entire tournament, her fastest first serve speed was the slowest of all players at 95mph (152.9kph). So she has the slowest first serve, but is the only player, male or female, to average making over 80%.
When it all boils down to it, the success of Sara Errani’s career depends very little on her serve. Her strengths, such as how to dissect an opponent, fight like crazy, defend incredibly well, and hardly ever miss, are how she does so well in our sport. In a lot of ways, her serve stats are pretty much irrelevant and don’t help us understand what’s really happening in this part of the game.
Highest 12 Women’s First Serve Percentage
Player | 1st Serve % | Matches Won |
---|---|---|
Sara Errani | 83% | 4 |
Ksenia Pervak | 79% | 0 |
Alexandra Cadantu | 78% | 0 |
Julia Cohen | 74% | 0 |
Lesia Tsurenko | 74% | 0 |
Caroline Wozniacki | 74% | 0 |
Daniela Huntuchova | 73% | 0 |
Mathilda Johansson | 72% | 0 |
Olga Govortsova | 72% | 2 |
Petra Martic | 71% | 0 |
Shuai Peng | 71% | 0 |
Arantxa Rus | 70% | 0 |
Total | 6 |
Lowest 12 Women’s First Serve Percentage
Players | 1st Serve % | Matches Won |
---|---|---|
Melinda Czink | 51% | 0 |
Ana Ivanovic | 51% | 4 |
L. Arruabarrena-Vecino | 50% | 1 |
Agnes Szavay | 49% | 0 |
Stephanie Foretz Gacon | 49% | 0 |
A. Pavlyuchenkova | 49% | 1 |
Marina Erakovic | 48% | 0 |
Francesca Schiavone | 48% | 0 |
Elina Svitolina | 45% | 0 |
Coco Vandeweghe | 45% | 0 |
Julia Glushko | 45% | 0 |
Monica Niculescu | 42% | 0 |
TOTAL | 6 |
What is the ideal first serve percentage?
Let’s start this process by recognizing that it is purely objective. It will differ from player to player, but I think we can narrow the process down and come up something that makes sense.
All-Time Serve Stats
Only 13 players since stats were first officially recorded by the ATP in 1991 have a 1st serve average of 70% or more. That’s definitely not a sweet spot of the sport.
Here are some big names for us to examine.
Player | 1st Serve % Lifetime | Matches |
---|---|---|
Guillermo Vilas | 70% | 1,186 |
Rafael Nadal | 69% | 825 |
John Isner | 68% | 380 |
Nikolay Davydenko | 67% | 788 |
Ivo Karlovic | 66% | 483 |
Mats Wilander | 66% | 741 |
Jimmy Connors | 65% | 1,531 |
Andy Roddick | 65% | 789 |
Novak Djokovic | 65% | 712 |
J.M. Del Potro | 63% | 422 |
David Ferrer | 63% | 870 |
Andre Agassi | 63% | 1,108 |
Roger Federer | 62% | 1,117 |
Jim Courier | 62% | 717 |
Patrick Rafter | 62% | 521 |
Milos Raonic | 62% | 244 |
Thomas Muster | 62% | 854 |
Richard Gasquet | 62% | 589 |
Todd Martin | 62% | 626 |
Stefan Edberg | 61% | 1,021 |
Kei Nishikori | 61% | 280 |
Gael Monfils | 61% | 484 |
Fernando Gonzalez | 61% | 545 |
Philipp Kohlschreiber | 60% | 568 |
Pete Sampras | 59% | 961 |
Feliciano Lopez | 59% | 688 |
Carlos Moya | 59% | 867 |
Tommy Haas | 58% | 850 |
Greg Rusedski | 58% | 693 |
Tim Henman | 58% | 733 |
Marcelo Rios | 58% | 548 |
Boris Becker | 57% | 886 |
John McEnroe | 57% | 1,031 |
Ivan Lendl | 56% | 1,285 |
Bjorn Borg | 56% | 729 |
Marat Safin | 55% | 653 |
Lleyton Hewitt | 54% | 809 |