Monday, 15 February 2021 / Published in Australian Open

Nadal’s Serve +1 Hammer

G’day,

Serve +1.

Rafael Nadal hits a serve. Then the party begins.

The +1 is the very next shot after the serve, and through his first four matches at the 2021 Australian Open, that shot has been a forehand more than three out of four times. It’s not what opponents want. It’s a pattern of play that Rafa obsesses about to help him hold serve.

Hit a serve. Hit a forehand. Rinse. Repeat. Hammer time for the next victim. Have you seen the trophy room at the Rafa Nadal Tennis Academy?

This is Rafa’s line-up so far in Melbourne this year.

Defeated Laslo Djere 6-3, 6-4, 6-1
Defeated Michael Mmoh 6-1, 6-4, 6-2
Defeated Cameron Norrie 7-5, 6-2, 7-5
Defeated Fabio Fognini 6-3, 6-4, 6-2
Next up: Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarters

Through the first four matches, Rafa has hit a forehand 77% of the time after a serve = 151 times out of 195.

On the one hand, this pattern of play is so obvious that opponents should be able to stop it. But they can’t. Because Rafa basically invented this specific “game”. He knows the angles and ball speed and player movement and balance and anticipation with his eyes closed. His opponents are just along for the ride. Helping him fill that trophy cabinet.

How good is this strategy? Off. The. Charts. Good.

Of the 151 times Rafa has started the point with a serve and a forehand, he has won 98 of them. That’s good for 65%. That’s crushingly good. It’s an outrageously high win percentage for a grouping of points that almost all fall into the category of “baseline” points. Yes, there is a sprinkling of net points in there as well, but precious few.

So, Rafa has hit a Serve +1 forehand 77% of the time and won 65%. That an A+ strategy any way you want to slice it.

But we need to break it down a little more to figure out what’s really going on with this pattern of play. The first thing to understand is cutting the court up into four areas – A,B,C,D.

Court Areas – A,B,C,D

If Rafa was standing in the middle of the court, areas C and D are forehands for him and areas A and B would be backhands. Sounds good in theory. Not in Rafa’s world.

Here’s where Rafa was standing when he hit the 151 Serve +1 Forehands.

Serve +1 Forehand Location

Position A = 33 (22%)
Position B = 65 (43%)
Position C = 37 (25%)
Position D = 16 (10%)
Total = 151

Rafa doesn’t see the line down the middle of the court signifying Deuce court and Ad court. There is no left side and right side of the court for him. He is looking for forehands absolutely everywhere he can find them for the first shot after the serve.

Deuce Court Serve +1 Forehands = 65%
Ad Court Serve +1 Forehands = 35%

It does not get any more clear than that. Opponents hit 98 return of serves to Positions A and B that were supposed to be a Serve +1 backhand for Rafa, but he turned it into a Serve +1 forehand. The Deuce court is the real domain of Rafa’s lethal Serve +1 play.

Rafa is running this play so effectively at the moment that there is no real hole or weaker spot that is delivering a sub-standard win percentage. He is crushing in all areas.

Serve +1 Forehand Win Percentages

Position A = 61%
Position B = 65%
Position C = 70%
Position D = 63%

That’s tough to gameplan against. Here’s where Rafa is hitting his Serve +1 forehands.

Serve +1 Forehand Direction

To Position A = 75 (37%)
To Position B = 27 (14%)
To Position C = 29 (15%)
To Position D = 66 (34%)

Rafa’s favorite combination of all is to go from Position B to Position A. That’s what he prefers above all else. Below are four screenshots so you can get a feel for his favorite strategy.

You may be wondering how good Rafa’s Serve +1 backhand is also performing? From another planet as well in Melbourne this past week.

Overall, Rafa has hit 77% Serve +1 forehands and 23% Serve +1 backhands. It’s crystal clear that he prefers his Serve +1 forehand. But when he has had to hit a Serve +1 backhand so far in Melbourne, he is winning an outstanding 68% (30/44) of those points. Sixteen have come from a Serve +1 backhand in Position A and 14 from a Serve +1 backhand in Position B.

Holding serve is not about grinding out long rallies. It’s about combining your serve and forehand into one unit to attack hard and fast at the beginning of the point.

When the point ended with Rafa’s Serve +1 shot, it was overwhelmingly a winner over an error.

Serve +1 forehand & backhand winners = 26
Serve + forehand & backhand errors = 16

Now you know this specific strategy. Look for it every time Rafa hits a serve in his quarter-final against Tsitsipas. His “hidden” pattern of play will be easy to identify now. And yes, you can try this at home as well.

Best,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Nadal’s Serve +1 Hammer

G’day,