Look though this lens.
#7 Rafal Nadal vs. #55 Nicholas Mahut (1 win each)
G’day from Miami,
I really like this match-up because of the contrasting styles. Seeing a “north-south” player like Mahut battle an “east-west” superstar like Nadal is just flat-out fun!
I want to educate your eye for this match – have you already looking for things that will greatly affect who ends up advancing to the quarter finals. Here’s six things to consider…
#1 RETURNS IN
Rafa defeated Dudi Sela 6-3, 6-4 in his opening round match, making 80% of his returns back in play. It’s not going to be that high against Mahut as the Frenchman has a better serve. Mahut will be hoping for closer to 60%. If Nadal can’t get a read on Mahut’s serve, and therefore can’t put enough returns in, the Frenchman will have a real chance of winning. Look at the pic below. This is from the Kohlschreiber match. In the first set, which Nadal lost 6-0, he stood closer to the baseline to return 1st serves. It didn’t work at all for him. He did much better standing further back, letting the ball slow down. Expect that against Mahut. What Mahut needs to do to counter that is slice wide and serve & volley.
#2 RALLY LENGTH
Consider these numbers from Nadal v Sela.
Points Won
0-4 Shots
- Nadal 40
- Sela 24
5-9 Shots
- Nadal 16
- Sela 15
10+ Shots
- Nadal 9
- Sela 8
Nadal ended up +16 in the 0-4 shot range (40-24) and only +2 (25-23) in everything else. Because far more points are played in shorter rallies than longer rallies, whoever wins the short rallies in this match is almost guaranteed to win the match – regardless of what happens in the longer ones. You eyes and your mind are drawn to the longer rallies, which are more spectacular. They are more fun to watch, but its domination of the shorter rallies that matters more to winning.
#3 HEIGHT OF VOLLEYS
Mahut is not going to beat Nadal from the baseline. He knows it, Rafa knows it… the postman in Key Biscayne knows it. Mahut will need to come forward a lot with serve & volley play, and approach & volley. Look for the HEIGHT of contact of those volleys. If Nadal can make the contact point BELOW the height of the net (3 feet in the middle), then Nadal has the advantage. If the height is about the net, then Mahut can stick it more, and be more effective. The height of the volley is going to be a major factor today. Mahut won an impressive 83% (19/23) v Pella at the net in his last round. If he can repeat those numbers v Nadal, he can win.
#4 MAHUT v PELLA
In the previous round, Mahut defeated 26yo Argentine Guido Pella 6-3, 7-6(4). This was a perfect “dress rehearsal” for Mahut, as Pella is a lefty like Nadal, who likes to grind like Nadal. It is soooo much better for Mahut to have played Pella before Nadal, than someone like Isner, or Kyrgios. Getting used to a game style is a big deal. The Pella match should make Mahut a whole lot more comfortable on the court against Nadal.
#5 MAHUT FOREHANDS
Mahut had 10 forehand winners and 10 forehand unforced errors against Pella. He only had 4 backhand winners, and three backhand unforced errors in that match. When points are contested from the back of the court, Nadal is going to try and hammer away at Mahut’s backhand. Mahut needs to find his forehand as much as possible, especially in the Ad court, and then take a lot of them “inside-in” down the line to the Nadal backhand. This will be a major tactic to look for when points are contested from the back of the court.
#5 GROUNDSTROKE SPEED
You always want to try and copy something that works against an opponent. When Kohlschreiber won the opening set 6-0 against Nadal in the previous round, the German’s average groundstroke speed was 78mph. Nadal was only at 69mph. Quite clearly, crushing the ball from the back of the court worked. Here’s the problem for Mahut. His average groundstroke speed against Pella was only 67mph – wayyy below what Kohlschreiber had success with. That’s a red flag right there for Mahut. He will need to find another gear from the back of the court, as 67mph will give Nadal all day long to work his magic.
Let’s hope for a great match!
Best,
Craig