G’day from Austin!
Trends in tennis are similar to waves in the ocean. The tide can go out for a while, often years, but can change directions without you realizing it. The tide changes in two main ways:
- Players evolve new tactics to defeat opponents ahead of them.
- New players arrive on the scene.
The tide is changing – right now.
The cyclical evolution of tennis is currently experiencing TWO big transition phases at once. Two waves coming at the sport from different directions.
WAVE 1 – YOUTH
The current average age of the TOP 5 in the world is 31 years old.
- Andy Murray (29)
- Novak Djokovic (29)
- Stan Wawrinka (32)
- Roger Federer (35)
- Rafael Nadal (30)
The current age of the Top 100 = 28.3 years old
There are 41 players aged 30 and above.
There are 26 players 25 years of age or younger.
These older players have dominated for so long, enjoying illustrious careers at the top of our game. But guess what? The following list of players in the Top 100 are KNOCKING. DOWN. THE. DOOR.
- 19yo Frances Tiafoe (#89)
- 19yo Alexander Zverev (#20)
- 20yo Ernesto Escobedo (#95)
- 20yo Hyeon Chung (#92)
- 20yo Jared Donaldson (#75)
- 20yo Borna Coric (#59)
- 20yo Karen Khachanov (#55)
- 21yo Yoshihito Nishioka (#64)
- 21yo Daniil Medvedev (#63)
- 21yo Nick Kyrgios (#16)
- 22yo Thiago Montiero (#81)
- 22yo Kyle Edmund (#79)
- 22yo Jordan Thompson (#79)
- 23yo Jiri Vesely (#54)
- 23yo Lucas Pouille (#17)
- 23yo Dominic Thiem (#9)
Their wave has not yet crashed on the beach yet. It is still building, but we can clearly see it coming. Their career best rankings are still years in the future. Imagine all of these guys when they are 25 years old. Or 28. Imagine their improvement. Imagine the opportunity that awaits them. They are already coming hard, and they are the new that will replace the old. We have not had it in tennis for quite some time. A new wave is about to crash. And that’s not even including the late bloomers that will come out of nowhere…
WAVE 2 – GAME STYLE
We are in the golden age of the returner. We are in the golden age of the power baseliner. Novak Djokovic is the poster child, but to varying degrees Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal also hold the torch. Roger Federer is all of a sudden back in the limelight, and the one thing that ignited his game… was his backhand return.
How do you counter a great returner? How to you beat a solid baseliner? You become Nick Kyrgios… You counter great returns with a better serve. You also sprinkle in some Misha Zverev and reignite serve and volley. You also add a dash of the “new” Federer and swarm the net like you were born to do it.
Serving is coming back. Serving and volleying is coming back. Approach and volley is coming back… and why shouldn’t they? These strategies are the perfect antidote to the power baseliner and the awesome returner. It makes complete sense…
The speed of the court has A LOT to do with that. Slightly faster courts enable a player to be successful at the back of the court, AND also at the front. It’s where tennis needs to be. Variety electrifies our sport.
I just wrote an ATP story on who is knocking down the door at the start of 2017 – the hot players on tour at the moment. Here’s the link:
CRAIG’S ATP ANALYSIS – 2017 QUARTER 1 HOT PLAYERS
Cheers,
Craig