Thursday, 18 February 2021 / Published in Australian Open

Does “Peak Novak” Hit More Winners Or Less?

G’day,

Novak Djokovic is peaking. 🏔

Just. At. The. Right. Time. 🦘🏆

After defeating Aslan Karatsev 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 in the semi-finals of the 2021 Australian Open, Novak said in his post-match press conference that “I feel as best as I felt so far in the tournament. Physically, mentally as well. I was hitting the ball very well, mixing the pace. Didn’t give him the same looks at all. Always kind of kept him guessing and served well,” Novak said.

He added, “I’m just very pleased with the performance. It came at the right time. Before the last match in a Grand Slam, couldn’t be better timing for me to play my best tennis.”

If you are a fan of Novak’s, of which there are legions, this is music to your ears after an injury scare and tough, exhausting battles against Frances Tiafoe, Taylor Fritz, Milos Raonic, and Alexander Zverev. That is a mountain to climb to reach the semi-finals of the Australian Open.

So if Novak is super-duper happy with the way he went about his business against Aslan Karatsev in the semis, what would you be anticipating from the stats sheet? Again, Novak won 6-3, 6-4, 6-2. If Novak is in self-proclaimed “beast mode”, what metrics, particularly from the baseline, would you be expecting?

Novak played 147 points in the match, winning 88 (60%). How many combined forehand and backhand winners do you think he hit? In three sets?

Maybe 15. Possibly 20? When Daniil Medvedev defeated Mackenzie McDonald 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 (an identical scoreline), Medvedev was credited with 18 forehand and backhand winners. Does Novak surge to 20+ in his semi-final victory?

No. Not even close.

I tagged the match this morning to get the real number of groundstroke winners. Returns are not included in the total. Either are forehands and backhand hit inside the service box at the front of the court. No volleys counted. No overheads. Approach shots are included, as long as they were hit behind the service line.

You may want to sit down before reading this…

Novak Groundstroke Analysis vs. Karatsev

Forehands

Forehands Groundstrokes = 104
Forehand Winners = 4
Forehand Errors = 11

Backhands

Backhand Groundstrokes = 107
Backhand Winners = 3
Backhand Errors = 9

Forehand & Backhands Combined

Combined Groundstrokes = 207
Combined Winners = 7
Combined Errors = 20

Remember, Novak is pumped about his level of play. But he only struck seven winners from 207 groundstrokes. That doesn’t seem like a lot from a guy who is seeing the ball like a watermelon.

The fact is, we all have this slightly warped view of WHO Novak really is when he is playing at his peak. It’s not just Novak, actually. It’s pretty much everyone. We equate hitting winners with winning matches and playing in the zone. It’s just not true.

“Peak Novak” isn’t a guy running around the baseline salivating over a short ball to knock the cover off it for a winner. That’s not what gets him out of bed in the morning. “Peak Novak” wants you to miss. And miss again. And miss some more. He has you on a string like a puppet master, shaking errors out of you like a rag doll.

“Peak Novak” is a master manipulator of TIME and SPEED.

New to tennis tactics? The 25 Golden Rules of Singles Strategy is your entry-level course.

He hits the ball hard enough to make the opponent uncomfortable but still at a controlled speed he can trust to continuously put in the court. Fast. Just not too fast.

His speed of foot is a joke. He is ultra-quick. He knows how hard he has to hit the ball to make the opponent uncomfortable, and he knows with his phenomenal speed that the opponent has basically got to paint the line to get it past him. Speed of ball. Speed of foot. Angles instantly calculated. All manipulated to his advantage. When he gets all these speeds and angles just right, that’s what makes him feel good on the court.

That’s what he felt against Aslan.

BASELINE LOCATIONS A,B,C,D

The baseline is a big area. Different outcomes occur at different locations.

When two right-handed players compete against each other, most balls flow from Position C to C. That’s where the traffic is.
Position D is a building location where you look to be better off in the point after dispatching a quality shot to that corner.
Most forehand and backhand winners go to A.
Position B extracts a ton of errors if you can hit it deep, but you get severely punished if you don’t. Go to B at your own peril.

FOUR BASELINE LOCATIONS

BASELINE PERFORMANCE: NOVAK SERVING vs. ASLAN

The following metrics are all Novak serving to begin the point.

Forehands

Position A = 28 hit / 4 errors
Position B = 15 hit / 3 errors
Position C = 15 hit / 1 error
Position D = 1 hit / 0 errors
TOTAL = 59 hit / 8 errors

It’s clear to see that Aslan was trying to attack Novak wide to Position A to his forehand. Also, Novak turned 15 backhands into forehands from Position C. Novak did not hit a single forehand groundstroke winner after starting the point with his serve. Normally you would think that is not good, but remember, Novak came off the court beaming with his performance. He loves the style of play that produces these metrics.

Backhands

Position A = 0 hit
Position B = 1 hit / 0 errors
Position C = 34 hit / 1 error
Position D = 38 hit / 6 errors / 1 winner
TOTAL = 73 hit / 7 errors / 1 winner

These are all solid numbers for Novak. Aslan was peppering Novak’s backhand in Positions C and D. Seven errors from 73 backhands is very serviceable.

BASELINE PERFORMANCE: NOVAK RETURNING vs. ASLAN

The following metrics are all Novak returning to begin the point.

Forehands

Position A = 20 hit / 3 errors / 1 winner
Position B = 17 hit / 0 errors / 1 winner
Position C = 8 hit / 0 error / 2 winners
Position D = 0 hit /
TOTAL = 45 hit / 3 errors / 4 winners

When returning, Novak was not able to hit as many run-around forehands in C. When serving, he hit 15. When returning, he hit 8. Just a tougher dynamic when returning. Also, Novak had zero forehand winners when the point started with the serve. He had four when returning, signaling his intention to be more aggressive when returning.

Attack more when attacked.

Backhands

Position A = 0 hit
Position B = 5 hit / 0 errors
Position C = 11 hit / 0 error / 1 winner
Position D = 18 hit / 2 errors / 1 winner
TOTAL = 34 hit / 2 error / 2 winner

These are outstanding numbers for Novak. Typically, players are naturally more defensive when returning serve and more errors accumulate. To hit 34 total backhands with 2 errors and 2 winners canceling each other is a win in my book.

SUMMARY

“Peak Novak” is not a machine that spits out winner after winner after winner.

On the other end of the spectrum, “Peak Novak” does not try to simply outlast you either.

“Peak Novak” makes you miss. “Peak Novak” makes you uncomfortable hitting shots you normally feel good about – but not this time.

“Peak Novak” hits mainly cross-court, until the risk/reward equation gets a green light in his mind to attack you down the line. He wants you on the run because he is better at a running game than you are. Welcome to Novak’s world.

So, in Sunday’s final of the Australian Open, when you see his opponent miss their shot, you know Novak is relishing the way the point ended. Because he is going to go right back to work to make it happen again. And again. When you see Novak hit a winner, you know that’s just the icing on the cake.

Best,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Does “Peak Novak” Hit More Winners Or Less?