Saturday, 20 February 2021 / Published in Australian Open

Djokovic v Medvedev: Aussie Open Final Preview

G’day,

You come for the long rallies. You will wake up after midnight to watch the spectacular lactic-acid-inducing points between baseline heavy-weights Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev. You come for the cartoonish side-to-side sliding that makes these guys look like they are playing on clay instead of hard. You come for the bruising backhands and ferocious forehands that promise to be a hallmark of the 2021 Australian Open final.

That’s just fine. I can’t wait to see them either! They are just not going to be the main contributing factor to who wins the match. This battle will be won and lost with:

aces
service winners
unreturned serves
Serve +1 winners / errors
Return +1 winners / errors

The first two times Novak and Daniil touch the ball in the rally will matter more to the final outcome than all the shots that follow.

You come for the long. Pay attention to the short. As an example, here’s the rally length data on the women’s final.

Naomi Osaka def. Jennifer Brady 6-4, 6-3

0-4 Shots: Osaka won 55 / Brady won 42. That’s + 13 for Osaka
5+ Shots: Osaka won 14 / Brady won 12. That’s +2 for Osaka.
Osaka dominated the short rallies in 0-4 shots. That’s where her real advantage existed.

Matches To The Final

Novak Djokovic

def. Jeremy Chardy 6-3, 6-1, 6-2
def. Frances Tiafoe 6-3, 6-7(3), 7-6(2), 6-3
def. Taylor Fritz 7-6(1), 6-4, 3-6, 4-6, 6-1
def. Milos Raonic 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-1, 6-4
def. Alexander Zverev 6-7(6), 6-2, 6-4, 7-6(6)
def. Aslan Karatsev 6-3, 6-4, 6-2

It’s important when analyzing Novak’s numbers to the final that he has played some tall timber on the other side of the net that thrive in the 0-4 rally length.

Daniil Medvedev

def. Vasek Pospisil 6-2, 6-2, 6-4
def. Roberto Carballes Baena 6-2, 7-5, 6-1
def. Filip Krajinovic 6-3, 6-3, 4-6, 3-6, 6-0
def. Mackenzie McDonald 6-4, 6-2, 6-3
def. Andrey Rublev 7-5, 6-3, 6-2
def. Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4, 6-2, 7-5

Medvedev is in scintillating form, blowing by two outstanding, in-form opponents in the last two rounds in Rublev and Tsitsipas. Extremely impressive straight-set victories.

Rally Length Break Down – Points Played To The Final

Novak Djokovic

0-4 Shots = 68% (948)
5-8 Shots = 20% (279)
9+ Shots = 12% (175)
Total = 1402

This is as high as I have seen Novak in points played in 0-4. The fast courts this year at the Aussie Open contribute to that, as well as his big-hitting opponents. I have seen his 0-4 numbers leading into a final around the 55% mark in the past. It’s a credit to his versatile game style that he can adapt and succeed in the shorter points this year.

Daniil Medvedev

0-4 Shots = 64% (688)
5-8 Shots = 21% (228)
9+ Shots = 14% (155)
Total = 1071

These numbers are right where Medvedev likes to be. Lots of attacking early, but also extending the point when returning to apply pressure to the server to do a little extra – and miss. He is right in his wheelhouse.

Rally Length Break Down – Points WON

Novak Djokovic

0-4 Shots = 510 won / 438 lost = +72
5-8 Shots = 148 won / 131 lost = +17
9+ Shots = 102 won / 73 lost = +29
Total = 760 won / 642 lost = +118

Solid numbers from Novak in 0-4 against opponents that really like to dominate there as well. Interesting to see that Novak has been the least dominant in the 5-8 shot range.

Daniil Medvedev

0-4 Shots = 403 won / 285 lost = +118
5-8 Shots = 115 won / 113 lost = +2
9+ Shots = 94 won / 61 lost = +33
Total = 612 won / 459 = +153 won

Medvedev is crushing it in 0-4. That’s the most impressive stat from either player, being +118 versus Novak’s +72, even though Daniil played fewer points overall (1071 to 1402).

0-4 Shots Broken Down

Now let’s break each shot down and see how Novak and Daniil are performing on a micro-level. Points won = winners hit by each player + errors committed by their opponents.

Remember that rally length is predicated by the ball hitting the court – not the strings. So a three-shot rally is a serve going in, the return going in and the server hitting their third shot in – either for a winner, or the next shot is an error from the opponent.

One-Shot Rallies

Novak: Points Won In One-Shot Rallies

Novak is +7 (133-125) in one-shot rallies for the tournament, which is actually a really good number considering the number of aces his opponents typically hit. 100 aces to the final is a solid accomplishment for the Super Serb.

Daniil: Points Won In One-Shot Rallies

These numbers are incredibly impressive for Daniil and ominous for Novak. Novak has been enjoying a lot of free points on serve this tournament with 100 aces and 11 service winners. Medvedev has yielded only 23 so far. This one metric is going to play a big part in the final.

Two Shot Rallies

Novak: Points Won In Two-Shot Rallies

A two-shot rally is the serve going in and the return going in. Sometimes the return is a winner, but the vast majority are a Serve +1 errors. Novak enjoyed a 27 shot advantage here against his opponent.

Daniil: Points Won In Two-Shot Rallies

Novak created a 27 point advantage for himself in two-shot rallies. Daniil is slightly higher here at 39. What’s interesting is that Novak has committed 108 forced errors here and Daniil was much lower, committing just 65. That’s going to be a big part of Sunday’s final. Who can absorb a big return and not be forced into an error.

Three Shot Rallies

Novak: Points Won In Three-Shot Rallies

Novak was more aggressive in three-shot rallies with 53 winners to 43 and also forcing around twice as many errors (20-12). He was also far less likely to commit an unforced error.

Daniil: Points Won In Three-Shot Rallies

Novak’s numbers are considerably higher than Daniil’s when it comes to just three balls in play. Novak has 53 winners to just 26 from Daniil. Surprisingly, even Daniil’s opponents did better here, with 38 winners.

Four Shot Rallies

Novak: Points Won In Four-Shot Rallies

Things get a lot closer here between Novak and his opponents. Novak actually loses the unforced error tally for the first time (18-21) when looking at all the rally lengths in 0-4.

Daniil: Points Won In Four-Shot Rallies

Very interesting to see that Daniil is losing this rally length to his opponents even though he won all six matches. Daniil is making more errors – particularly unforced errors.

SUMMARY

Overall, when you combine all four rally lengths together Daniil comes out 104 points ahead of his opponents. Very solid. Novak is not far away with an 85 points advantage. You must also take into account Daniil has not played as many total points (1071-1402) as Novak.

Daniil takes the honors in the 0-4 rally length to the final in a head-to-head comparison with Novak. It’s a gauge of their form coming into the last match of the tournament. Things start fresh Sunday evening in Melbourne.

I predicted Novak would win the tournament at the beginning. Not a huge stretch to pick the defending champion, who has also collected the trophy eight times Down Under. I said that until Djokovic loses, then there is no point talking about anyone else to win the tournament.

Medvedev’s impressive numbers – in 0-4 especially – make him THE most dangerous opponent for Novak out of the other 127 opponents. Novak has got his toughest test on the biggest stage. In some ways, I am sure that’s exactly how he wants it. It’s not a stretch to say that Novak even thrives on this kind of adversity.

Here are their last four matches head-to-head.

2020 London: Medvedev def. Djokovic 6-3, 6-3
2020 ATP Cup: Djokovic def. Medvedev 6-1, 5-7, 6-4
2019 Cincinnati: Medvedev def. Djokovic 3-6, 6-3, 6-3
2019 Monte Carlo: Medvedev def. Djokovic 6-3, 4-6, 6-2

I can’t wait!!! I will definitely be waking up in the middle of the night for this one.

Best,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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Djokovic v Medvedev: Aussie Open Final Preview

G’day,

Matches To The Final

Rally Length Break Down – Points Played To The Final

0-4 Shots Broken Down