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Rafael Nadal on the clay court
Friday, 22 March 2019 / Published in ATP Tour

What Matters Most To Winning In Clay Court Tennis?


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PROMO VIDEO


The Truth About Clay Court Tennis Strategy.

How exactly is a clay court different than a hard court?

The way your foot slides on clay and the way the ball reacts with the granules of “terre battue” is different than playing on hard. But is there more to it than that?

If you look for the answer on practice courts all over the world, you would be led to believe that grinding from the back of the court is THE most important thing there is to be successful. The traditional “clay court” mantra focuses on repetition, shot tolerance and suffering from the back of the court. Build a trench back there and don’t miss.

Is that the same viewpoint we get when we analyze clay court match data?

That’s precisely what Dirtballer is all about. Using big data to drill down to the essence of winning and losing on dirt. Get rid of the guessing.

Clay court tennis has never been under the microscope like this before!

I want to give you a taste of what kind of information is under the hood when Dirtballer is released on April 15, 2019.

On the front page of a Roland Garros stats sheet you will find the following 17 line items. They are all specific parts of a match. Small battles all over the court that help decide the final outcome.

Here’s the burning question…

Which of these battles MATTERS MOST to winning on clay? Some of them are a lot more important than others!

We went through the entire men’s and women’s draw at Roland Garros 2017 and analyzed how many times the match winner also performed better than the match loser in each line item. Here they are…

Seventeen Match Metrics

Below are the 17 metrics we analyzed on clay court matches only.

SERVING / RETURNING on Clay

  • 1st Serve Percentage
  • 1st Serve Points Won
  • 2nd Serve Points Won
  • Aces
  • Average 1st Serve Speed
  • Fewer Double Faults
  • 1st Serve Return Points Won
  • 2nd Serve Return Points Won

Clay Court RALLY Metrics

  • Baseline Points Won
  • Total Winners
  • Net Points Won
  • Less Unforced Errors
  • Less Forced Errors

RALLY LENGTH

  • 0-4 Shots
  • 5-8 Shots
  • 9+ Shots

SCORE

  • Percentage Of Break Points Won

To begin with, it’s vital you know what you are looking at. When you look up the word “correlation,” this definition comes up –> “the process of establishing a relationship between two or more things.”

That’s exactly what the focus is here. This is an examination of winning matches AND winning a specific match metric. The following data is from the women’s draw at Roland Garros in 2017.

We always start with is a 50-50 battle. Two players walk on the court and have an even chance of attaining victory. For example, when you look at #13, which is aces, you will see the percentage is 57.2%. That means that of everyone that won their match, 57.2% of the time the match winner also performed better than the match loser in hitting more aces. In summary, 57.2% of the time, the match winner served more aces than the match loser. It’s only a 7.2 percentage point increase over 50-50, so it’s really not that influential.

The end-game is to examine which line items on a stats sheet mean the MOST to winning matches. Let’s get to it!!!


2017 Roland Garros Women – Clay Court Match Metric / Averages

#Match MetricMatch WinnerMatch LoserWin Correlation
10-4 Shots55.5%44.5%84.5%
2Baseline Points Won54.1%42.6%83.9%
T31st Serve Points Won67.5%56.1%82.8%
T31st Serve Return Points Won43.9%32.5%82.8%
T52nd Serve Points Won50.2%40.5%76.4%
T52nd Serve Return Pts Won59.5%49.8%76.4%
7Winners18.013.968.0%
85-8 Shots54.8%45.2%67.8%
9Less Unforced Errors15.719.666.4%
10Break Points Won %53.7%43.0%66.0%
11Less Forced Errors14.717.565.6%
121st Serve %64.5%62.8%58.0%
13Aces2.71.757.2%
149+ Shots54.3%45.7%55.7%
15Less Double Faults4.04.554.4%
16Net Points Won66.8%59.9%53.6%
17Average 1st Serve Speed155.3 km/h154.7km/h51.7%

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Let’s go through each one, starting with No. 17.

#17 = Average 1st Serve Speed (51.7%)

This metric has the least influence of winning and losing in the women’s draw at Roland Garros in 2017. All match winners averaged hitting their first serves at 155.3 km/h, while all match losers averaged 154.7 km/h – a difference of just 0.6 km/h. Match winners only won this metric 51.7% of the time.

#16 = Net Points Won (53.6%)

Whenever you look at a stat, the first thing you compare it to is the starting point – which in this case is a 50-50 battle. Anything above 50% is good. Anything below 50% won’t get you to the finish line first. Notice here that both match winners and match losers were well above 50%, signaling that the net is a great place to be, even on clay. Match winners averaged winning a very high 66.7%, while match losers thoroughly enjoyed a 59.9% win percentage. The net rules on dirt for everyone.

#15 = Less Double Faults (54.4%)

There was only 0.5 double faults per match difference between match winners (4.0) and match losers (4.5), which clearly tells us that this is not a significant point of separation between winning and losing. Match winners performed better, but only marginally so, which is why serving less double faults is ranked 15th in influence on winning a match.

#14 = 9+ Shots (55.7%)

Hold. The. Bus! This is the beating heart of traditional clay court coaching. This is the mantra. This is the ingrained philosophy of clay court development from Barcelona to Buenos Aires. Grind. Be patient. Have superior shot tolerance. Suffer. The player that wins the long rallies wins the most…

It’s. Simply. Not. True. 

Winning the battle of “Extended Rallies” ranks only 14th best out of 17 match metrics, yielding a modest 55.7% advantage. Also, think of it this way. 100% of players that lost their matches won 44.3% of rallies of 9 shots or longer. Match losers, as it turns out, are actually very consistent!

Let’s put this in context of the “Player Development Pathway.” When young players are learning their game, it’s 100% correct to focus on getting as many balls in the court as possible. Consistency is the gateway to everything else that follows. But once you start competing, and winning matters, hitting 10 shots in a row in the court does not have as big of an influence over the final outcome as we thought.

Lastly, clay is revealing itself to be just like any other surface. Here’s an inconvenient truth about tennis – the longer the rally goes, the more even it becomes! You may want to read that again to let it really sink in…

#13 = Aces (57.2%)

Match winners averaged 2.7 aces per match, while match losers averaged 1.7. One ace per match is the only difference! What is also in play here is match winners must also be benefiting from a sprinkling of service winners, unreturned serves and easier Serve +1 forehands and backhands on the back of their bigger serve. 

#12 = First Serve Percentage (58.0%)

One of the biggest cliches in our sport is “get your first serve in,” yet this match metric does not even make the Top 10! Match winners averaged making 64.5%, while match losers averaged making 62.8% – a gap of just 1.7 percentage points. 

First serves are a double edge sword. If you make too little, you are exposing too much pressure on the second serve. If you make too many, you are not going for it enough, and it may as well be a second serve. The key takeaway is that there are eleven other metrics more important than making your first serve!

#11 Less Forced Errors (65.6%)

Match winners averaged committing 14.7 forced errors per match, while match losers were at 19.6. It’s also important to note the big jump from 1st Serve Percentage (58.0%) to Less Forced Errors (65.6%) – an increase of 7.6 percentage points, which is the second highest leap between two metrics out of the field of 17. I am a huge fan of forcing errors in a match, and I must admit I was surprised it was not ranked higher. We are always learning…

#10 = Break Points Won Percentage (66.0%)

Firstly, this metric is an overall percentage – not a total of break points accumulated in the match. So if you converted two of four, you are at 50%, which is a superior percentage than if you convert 10 of 22, which is 45%. The variable here is score lines like 7-6, 1-6, 7-5. When you have one set that completely gets away from a player, it’s more accurate to look at the overall percentage than the total.

I found this metric fascinating – mainly because there are still NINE more line items that matter more to winning.

#9 = Less Unforced Errors (66.4%)

It’s interesting that making less unforced errors ranked higher than making less forced errors, but only by less than one percentage point.

  • Less Forced Errors = 65.6%
  • Less Unforced Errors = 66.4%
  • Difference = 0.8 percentage points

Match winners only committed 15.7 unforced errors per match, while match losers were at 19.6. A good way to think of this dynamic is like this. There is a difference of 4.2 unforced errors per match. Four gifts per match that the opponent does not have to earn. Four free points a match is a BIG deal.

#8 = 5-8 Shots (67.8%)

Remember that extended rallies of 9+ shots were at 55.7%, which gives 5-8 Shots a substantial 12.1 percentage point increase. Match winners won north of two out of three matches when they won more points in this crucial rally length. When you analyze this rally length, you see very “smart” players dominating here. The best analogy to understand this rally length is chess. It’s all about using 3 to 4 moves to wrestle control of the encounter. 

Significant takeaway = winning mid-length rallies is vastly superior to winning long rallies. Burn that into your brain.

#7 = Winners (68.0%)

This is another line item that rips apart the traditional clay court paradigm of consistency, shot tolerance and grinding. Hitting winners has a higher correlation to winning a match that forcing errors or reducing unforced errors.

This is another nail in the coffin of thinking massive repetition in a match is the answer. It’s not. We actually play an aggressive sport way more than we play a consistent sport. This is just further proof. 

Match winners averaged hitting 18.0 winners per match, while match losers only averaged 13.9. This screams at us that reaching out and controlling our own destiny with aggression is way more important than grinding and pushing and hoping our opponent is going to miss.

Tied #5 = 2nd Serve Return Points Won (76.4%)

As you may imagine, performance around second serves has always been, and still is a HUGE metric that separates winning and losing. Match winners averaged winning 59.2% of second serve return points, while match losers were under water at 49.8%. 

This is another “aggressive” statistic that rewards the returner for attacking a weaker second serve. This metric DEMANDS a considerable amount of time dedicated to it on the practice court. It’s high time to switch out some of your time grinding at the baseline with practicing second serve returns. The No. 1 target is right down the middle of the court at the server. Pressure them with time and make them have to move away from the ball. 

Tied #5 = 2nd Serve Points Won (76.4%)

Dirtballer shatters some old tennis myths and validates others. The age-old expression of “you are only as good as your second serve” holds very true here, with 2nd Serve Points Won being one of the leading five indicators of winning matches. 

Here’s the deal… how often do you specifically work on your second serve? My guess is not nearly enough. When we watch matches at all levels all over the world, the forehand and backhand technique typically appear to be more fundamentally sound than the serve technique. The reason is time and focus. The 2nd serve often gets left behind in the wash. I encourage you to spend more time in this area developing a smooth motion, reaching up high, getting the serve deep in the service box with spin, and direct it to your opponent’s backhand “jam” location. 

Second serves matter on clay. Always have. Always will.

Tied #3 = 1st Serve Points Won (82.8%)

More than eight times out of 10, the player that performed better with their first serve in the women’s draw at Roland Garros in 2017 won the match. Big deal. Huge deal!!! It’s interesting to pair this metric with No. 17 on the list, which is Average 1st Serve Speed, which mattered the least. So what do we make of this? When it comes to 1st serves, power is definitely one component, but there are others… and that’s where we need to focus. We know making right around six out of 10 in the court is the average at Slams, so that takes care of the consistency aspect. Then there is the direction of the 1st serve, which is critical. The ability to hit spots, or knock over a ball can, is a significant asset. Other key factors include depth, spin, taking advantage of the court position of the returner, and taking their time away. 

Tied #3 = 1st Serve Return Points Won (82.8%)

As you will learn in Dirtballer, this is an area where Rafael Nadal creates a MONSTER imbalance over opponents. 1st Serve Returns tap into your defensive skills much more than offensive. The ability to block the ball back in the court again & again builds pressure on the server to do more with their first serve, which overheats it. What also screams at us here is that it does not matter what surface we play on, performance around the first serve and the first serve return never, ever diminish. 

#2 = Baseline Points Won (83.9%)

A baseline rally kicks in once the serve and return have been put into play, so it starts with a rally length of three shots. We know that long rallies of 9+ Shots rank only 14th in influence on winning matches, so when you see baseline points ranked so highly, it does not necessarily mean looong baseline points. The baseline has always been where most of the action is in our sport, so it makes perfect sense that having proficiency with forehands and backhands is ranked this high. 

#1 = 0-4 Shots (84.5%)

It does not matter if you are analyzing two young boys playing in Spain, two professional women playing at Roland Garros, or two kangaroos playing on the dark side of the moon, the 0-4 shot rally length is the most abundant, and also decides who will WIN more than anything else.

Uncovering that the 0-4 Shot rally length is the No. 1 indicator of winning on clay will come as a shock to many players and coaches. Ultimately, this is the proof that will help make our practice courts far more efficient all over the world. The four shots in this rally length are the serve, return, serve +1 and return +1. These shots DEMAND significant attention. 

SUMMARY – How To Improve Your Clay Court Strategy

Let’s be crystal clear on this…

The greatest indicator of winning a match on clay is winning the battle in the 0-4 Shot range. The second highest is the baseline, which is also attached to the 0-4 shot rally length, with 3 shot and 4 shot rallies – which happen more than any other baseline rally lengths.

When you also look at the next four metrics, they are also very closely aligned with the 0-4 shot rally length.

This list (Roland Garros women 2017) first and foremost is a BLUEPRINT for winning clay court tennis matches. This is not opinion. It’s not guesswork. It’s not biased. There is no slant to champion one metric over the other. These are official stats that uncover the hidden battles in a match. 

Every other major global sport uses match analytics as the beating heart of their operation. Tennis is just arriving at that tipping point right now.

Welcome to Dirtballer. Welcome to the truth about clay court tennis. 

All the best,

Craig

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THE FIRST 4 SHOTS

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

Short Ball Hunter

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

Num3ers

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Dou8les Num3ers

Doubles Numbers

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

between the points

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

25 golden rules of singles strategy

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

25 golden rules of doubles

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

Dirtballer

Dirtballer clay court tennis course

Getting Tight

Getting Tight tennis strategy course

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