G’day from Wimbledon, 🍓
Novak Djokovic starts this quarter-final match against Alex De Minaur as the favorite. History dictates that. There is no doubt that Novak is protecting his right knee in his four matches to the quarters. And rightly so. And, we don’t know if De Minaur is fully fit after injuring his hip with only three points to go in his Round of 156 match against Arthur Fils.
When it all boils down, these two are going to go toe-to-toe from the back of the court more than the front of the court. So let’s take a look at their groundstroke performance in particular to see who is doing better from the baseline. Keep in mind Djokovic has played 14 sets to the quarters, while De Minaur has only played 10 sets. the Aussie got a walkover against Lucas Pouille.
GROUNDSTROKES
Forehand Performance
- Djokovic: 38 winners / 100 errors = -62
- De Minaur: 37 winners / 95 errors = -58
Basically, dead even with forehands. You would expect Djokovic to be further ahead of De Minaur with forehand performance, and he may very well be if De Minaur had played the same amount of sets.
Backhand Performance
- Djokovic= 18 winners / 101 errors = -83
- De Minaur: 15 winners / 107 error = -92
Again, these numbers show they are neck and neck off the backhand wing.
Djokovic and De Minaur will glue themselves to the baseline, trade blows primarily cross court, and then look to launch sneak attacks down the line. If their injuries are still a factor, then they should be attacking each other wide to the forehand side to see if that injury can be exacerbated. Look for that tactic and look for any slow movement after a wide dash to the forehand side.
RALLY LENGTH
DjokovicÂ
- 0-4 Shots: 318 won / 240 lost = +78
- 5-8 Shots: 86 won / 72 lost = +14
- 9+ Shots: 50 won / 39 lost = +11
De MinaurÂ
- 0-4 Shots: Â 241 won / 197 Â lost = +44
- 5-8 Shots: Â 92 won / 81 lost = +11
- 9+ Shots: 53 won / 38 lost = +15
Again, the data is very even. If you add three or four more sets to De Minaur’s data, it may be almost identical to Novak’s.
With everything being so similar, you could make an argument that this favors De Minaur because he is playing much the same as Novak. He has elevated his game. You could also argue that this will help Novak because there is nothing that De Minaur is doing better than him, and Novak’s the one with the dominant resume in the match, which will come into play in important moments.
BASELINE POINTS WON
- Djokovic = 51% (196/382)
- De Minaur = 53% (200/378)
It’s interesting that the totals are within six points of each other. This is encouraging news for De Minaur, as he is slightly outperforming Djokovic in baseline exchanges. If De Minaur can get Djokovic to win slightly below 50% (let’s say 45% to 47%), then he has a real shot at causing the upset.
NET POINTS WON
- Djokovic = 78% (100/128)
- De Minaur = 67% (72/108)
Djokovic is doing a very solid job of finishing points at the net. His win percentage is seventh best, while De Minaur is tied for 55th best. This is an area that could possibly swing either way in the match.
Djokovic should go to the net more than normal in this match to cut off De Minaur’s fantastic defense. When De Minaur gets pulled wide to the edge of the court on the dead run, he often slices the ball off the forehand and backhand wing. Djokovic should come forward to cut these floating balls off in the air.
If De Minaur can come to the net more, he will put a lot of pressure on Djokovic to keep him back. De Minaur needs to make this an all-court battle.
SUMMARY
Injuries to both players cloud the preview to this blockbuster quarter-final. Is Djokovic really okay running hard to his forehand side? You can also ask the same question of De Minaur.
On the surface, Djokovic wins this in three or four sets. If De Minaur pulls the upset, he is going to have to knock Djokovic’s baseline win percentage down to around 45% and also keep the Serb off the net.
Let’s hope for some great tennis!
Best,
Craig