Friday, 06 September 2024 / Published in Frances Tiafoe, Jack Draper, Jannik Sinner, Serving, Taylor Fritz, US Open

2024 US Open Men’s Semi-Finals. How Fast Should You Hit Your 2nd Serve?

G’day from New York, 🗽

How hard should your 2nd serve be relative to your 1st serve? How much speed do the best players in the world take off their 1st serve to create an ideal 2nd serve speed?

We have answers for that…

Let’s take a look at the four men in the semis today.

Jannik Sinner vs. Jack Draper
Frances Tiafoe vs. Taylor Fritz

We will break down three key analytics between the first and second serve.

The difference between the fastest 1st serve and average 1st serve speed.
The difference between the fastest 2nd serve and average 2nd serve speed.
The difference between average 1st serve speed and 2nd serve speed.

It’s important to note that faster is not always better. Sure, bombing a big first serve and overwhelming your opponent with heat works well. But you need to take some speed off when slicing out wide so the slice can really do its magic. Throwing in a heavy kick second serve also works well to get the ball up on the returner. Also, throwing in a slower serve and letting the returner get out in front of it is a genuine serve strategy.

But in general, these guys are going way more primary (speed) than off-speed secondary (slower = surprise).

1: Difference Between Fastest 1st Serve & Average 1st Serve Speed.

The average difference between the fastest 1st serve and the average is 89% for the four US Open semi-finalists.

It’s interesting to note that the first-serve difference between the fastest and average is just three percentage points, from 87% to 90%.

Fritz has cracked the hardest first serve for the tournament so far of the semi-finalists at 135 mph. The fastest first serve struck at the 2024 US Open to the semis is 143 mph (230 kph) by Ben Shelton.

Sinner, Fritz, and Tiafoe all average 118 mph as their first serve speed. Draper is slower at 115 mph. The probable reason for that is that, as a lefty, he wants to bend the ball so much to pull opponents off the court with heavy slice.

FOR YOU – Generally, you want to hit your average serve speed at about 90% of your hardest serve. Some will be 90%+. Some will be below 90%, depending on what you are trying to achieve. But 90% should be our average.

FIVE WAYS TO IMPROVE YOUR SERVE

Webinar 1: Patterns & Percentages Of Winning Singes Strategy

Webinar 3: Serve Strategy & Patterns

Webinar 16: Serve +1 Strategy

Webinar 21: Serve & Volley / Return & Volley

Webinar 32: The 8 Serve Locations

2: Difference Between Fastest 2nd Serve & Average 2nd Serve Speed.

There is an 11-mph difference between Taylor Fritz’s fastest second serve (116 mph) and Jack Draper’s (105 mph).

This is where all four players can add a little extra to their game.

At some stage to the semi-finals, it would have been a smart idea for all four of these players to hit a second serve as hard as a first. I am not talking about doing it all the time, but in specific moments when the scoreboard is not pressuring them, or when an opponent starts doing better against your 2nd serve.

Nothing wrong with elevating your fastest 2nd serve to the average of your first serve. For example, Sinner’s fastest 2nd serve is 107 mph. His average 1st serve speed is 118 mph. Why not bang at least a handful of second serves in the 118 mph range. It adds another layer of unpredictability for opponents. Surely, all four players are scouting each other and looking at serve speeds. This will certainly create more uncertainty if there are a few 2nd serves hit as hard as first serves. Nick Kyrgios used to do it a lot and Novak Djokovic nominated Kygios as the best serve he has faced. The unpredictability of second serve speed was a main reason.

FOR YOU – These players are hitting their average 2nd serve speed around 80% of their fastest 2nd serve speed. It should be lower because you have mixed some 2nd serves in at a 1st serve speed.

3: Difference Between Average 1st Serve Speed & 2nd Serve Speed.

On average, there is a 27 mph difference between 1st and 2nd serve speed.

I find this fascinating. Let’s start by rounding 77% to 75% = three quarters.

These four players are hitting their 2nd serve at three-quarters of the pace of their 1st serves. This also gives you a solid guide to use at the amateur level. On the surface, this makes perfect sense and is something that you knew was probably the case. But that’s different than actually knowing and having a specific number to go off.

FOR YOU – You want to feel that your average 2nd serve is 3/4 of your average 2nd serve speed. Too often, amateur players are not living in this range. They either hit it much slower to make sure they make it or harder, thinking more power is better. Got to find the sweet spot.

SUMMARY

There is so much to learn about our game. This small analysis sheds light on serve speeds and what is optimal for players at all levels of the game.

Hitting your average 1st serve speed at around 90% of your hardest works well.

Mixing in some 2nd serves that are as hard as a 1st serve can be a good strategy a couple of times a match. Keep the opponent guessing.

Hitting your average 2nd serve about three-quarters as hard as your average first serve is right on the money.

Keep an eye on serve speeds when you watch both semi-finals later today. There is a story to be told there.

Best,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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2024 US Open Men’s Semi-Finals. How Fast Should You Hit Your 2nd Serve?

G’day from New York, 🗽