G’day from New York, đź—˝
The men’s semi-finals are set at Flushing Meadows.
- (1) Jannik Sinner vs. (25) Jack Draper
- (12) Taylor Fritz vs. (20) Frances Tiafoe
Tennis is a game of getting ahead. Putting scoreboard pressure on your opponent is crucial to winning on the biggest stage. I analyzed the four semi-finalists and their opponents using the following three metrics.
- The percentage they moved to 15-0 when serving.
- The percentage they held serve from 15-0.
- The percentage they held serve from 0-15.
Let’s examine the four players who are all trying to qualify for this year’s US Open final.
1: Percentage Moved To 15-0.
Taylor Fritz is the standout player moving to 15-0 the most of the remaining semi-finalists.
Fritz improved to 15-0 82% of the time on his service games, which is considerably higher than Taifoe (64%), who will be his opponent tomorrow.
When Fritz defeated Matteo Berretini in the second round, he won a staggering 13 of 15 initial points in his service games. Getting ahead on serve was also a key to defeating Alexander Zverev in the quarters. He went ahead 15-0 in 17 of his 21 service games.
2: Percentage Held From 15-0.
All four players held serve over 90% of the time when they won the first point on serve and moved to 15-0.
Fritz, Draper, and Tiafoe are all close to perfect holding serve from 15-0. It’s surprising to see Sinner at the bottom of this table, but it’s all somewhat similar once you reach north of 90%.
3: Percentage Holding Serve From 0-15.
Jack Draper is well ahead of the other three players holding serve from 0-15, at 95%.
This match metric highlights why Draper has reached his maiden Grand Slam semi-final here in New York. He is serving lights out and has only been broken three times. Draper is No. 1 for the tournament with Service Games Won at 95% (60/63). Fritz has been broken five times, Tiafoe ten times, and Sinner ten times. It’s not going to be an easy task for Sinner to break Draper.
4: Opponents Moved To 15-0 When Serving.
Now we will see how these four players’ OPPONENTS did in their matches.
It’s important to note that the lower the number here, the better it is for these four players since this data is for their opponents.
Draper is the top performer, only allowing his opponents to move ahead 15-0 in their service games 48% of the time. As we already know from the data above, Draper is doing so well on the serving side of this equation. Now we discover he is also outperforming his semi-final rivals from a returning standpoint.
5: Opponents Percentage Hold From 15-0.
Once again it’s Draper leading the pack.
Draper’s opponents only hold 77% of the time when they go to 15-0 in their service games. Sinner is not that far away at 82%, and the other two players are in the 90% range. Little things like these keep the pressure on the opponents and eventually wear them down. Another advantage for Draper.
6: Opponents Percentage Holding Serve From 0-15.
As you may suspect, Sinner and Draper dominate this key stat.
When their opponents drop the opening point of their service games and falls behind 0-15 in the point score, Sinner and Draper only allow them to hold serve 28% and 31%, respectively. This represents lockdown. It’s fascinating that Draper and Sinner are playing each other in the semi-finals, so something will have to give. Tiafoe is the one player that is allowing his opponents to hold serve more than half the time when they drop to 0-15.
SUMMARY
Analyzing the first point of the game when serving provides fresh insight into how players apply pressure to their opponents. Draper and Sinner, in particular, do an outstanding job of applying pressure at the start of their service games and also stealing the opening point in their opponents’ service games.
I’m looking forward to two very close semi-final battles. Pay close attention to the first point in all of the service games to identify who is gaining momentum in the match.