Friday, 11 September 2020 / Published in US Open

2020 US Open Semi Final Preview: Thiem v Medvedev

Six points out of every 10 will finish with Daniil Medvedev and Dominic Thiem hitting a MAXIMUM of just two balls in the court in their semi-final of the US Open in New York this evening. That’s either no balls in the court (double fault) or one or two for either player. Happening.

Whoever wins this “First Strike” battle will win the match. That’s what millions of points of tennis metrics show us, and what the specific body of work for both players in their five matches to the semi-finals points to as well.

There will be some looong baseline exchanges between the two, but this is not likely where overall dominance will play out. In fact, they have combined to play 266 points of 9+ shots in 10 matches and they only have an eight-shot advantage combined. That’s typically an even battle, and it has definitely proven to be so far – even for these two guys.

Like most heavy-weight battles in a Grand Slam semi-final, dominance in the 0-4 shot rally length will be the most important stat of the evening. Here’s how both players have performed in their first five matches at the 2020 US Open.

2020 US Open: First Five Matches To The Semi-Final

Dominic Thiem- Rally Length Played

0-4 Shots = 61% (515)
5-8 Shots = 23% (194)
9+ Shots = 16% (134)
Total Points = 843

Dominic Thiem – Rally Length W/L

0-4 Shots = 295 won /220 lost = +75
5-8 Shots = 118 won / 76 lost = +42
9+ Shots = 68 won / 66 lost = +2

Daniil Medvedev – Rally Length Played

0-4 Shots = 64% (533)
5-8 Shots = 20% (163)
9+ Shots = 16% (132)
Total Points = 828

Daniil Medvedev – Rally Length W/L

0-4 Shots = 315 won /218 lost = +97
5-8 Shots = 99 won / 64 lost = +35
9+ Shots = 69 won / 63 lost = +6

Both players are crafting their real advantage in short rallies. That’s how our sport works!

Here’s a straight-up comparison in other key areas of their game.

Baseline Points Won

Medvedev = 56%
Thiem = 54%

Net Points Won

Thiem = 78% (62/79)
Medvedev = 66% (44/67)

Forehands

Thiem = 62 winners / 122 errors = -60
Medvedev = 51 winners / 139 errors = -88

Backhands

Thiem = 31 winners / 126 errors = -95
Medvedev = 35 winners / 101 errors = -66

Thiem has been more willing to come to the net and has won more there as well. It’s an extra part of the court to accumulate points – especially when the back of the court promises to be such an even battleground. Thiem’s forehand is definitely performing better than Medvedev’s to the semi-finals, while the Russian has the edge with backhands.

If you see them crushing forehand to forehand, Thiem really has the advantage. If you see them trading backhand to backhand, Medvedev will be liking that more.

It’s going to be a riveting match. As much as long, grinding rallies will captivate your attention, lock on to who is winning the short rallies, and performing better with returns, Serve +1 and Return +1 groundstrokes. That’s where the battle will really be won.

Cheers,

Craig

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

SIGN IN YOUR ACCOUNT TO HAVE ACCESS TO DIFFERENT FEATURES

FORGOT YOUR DETAILS?

2020 US Open Semi Final Preview: Thiem v Medvedev