G’day!
Not all points are created equal – and break points carry the most weight of all in a tennis match. They are the “momentum” points that quickly swing the outcome of matches at any moment. These big points could come in the first game, in the middle of the match, or right at the end – that’s another element that makes them so special.
Once again, a big thanks for to SAP and the WTA for bringing these numbers to light. We are getting wonderful data from both organizations that is absolutely helping to grow the sport.
So let’s have a look at the break points from Miami and see what’s happening.
49% Break Points Saved (370/760) (Grade B)
At the 2012 U.S. Open, the women saved 52% (1014/1940) of break points, so this is definitely in the same ballpark. In general, you have got to expect the player facing break point to play a little bigger than they normally would. You have backed them into a corner, and they are probably going to come out swinging – because they have to. That means the returner also needs to match that increased energy as well. Hoping the server is simply going to mess up when they are trying to save a break point does not happen nearly as much as the server playing a better point than normal.
- Andrea Petkovic 67%
- Serena Williams 60%
- Simona Halep 46%
- Carla Suarez Navarro 44%
57% Break Points Saved 1st Serve (Grade A-)
The ladies in Miami saved 251 of 441 break points on first serve, which is a good number. The speed of the serve is the major factor here, eliciting a weaker return that the server can then lean on, probably for the rest of the point. The reality in tennis is that once either player gains initial control of the point, they tend to keep it. Those numbers ring true here as well.
- Serena Williams 80%
- Andrea Petkovic 70%
- Simona Halep 53%
- Carla Suarez Navarro 44%
37% Break Points Saved 2nd Serve (Grade B)
This is always going to be a tough, tough area to do well in, as the returner is in full attack mode. The average for winning points on a second serve in Miami was 44%, so you can see this is lower. It’s a really tough spot to be in, with so many things stacked against the server. They have to hit their weakest serve, against a very aggressive opponent who has the momentum and is coming out of their shoes to break serve. This is about as tough as a spot you will find yourself in.
- Andrea Petkovic 60%
- Serena Williams 47%
- Carla Suarez Navarro 43%
- Simona Halep 33%
17% Overall Serves Unreturned on Break Points (Grade A)
This is a really good returner stat, as 21% overall were missed on all points played. So this goes to show that the returner is missing far less (21% to 17%), knowing the importance of the break point opportunity that they have in their hand. That’s a very big deal, as the importance of making returns cannot be understated. Look below at the huge advantage Serena has over her rivals because of the quality of her serve. Imagine not having to deal with roughly four out of 10 break points, simply because you hit a serve that could not be returned. We all know Serena’s serve is a bomb, but these specific numbers speak so loudly as to exactly how it helps her.
- Serena Williams 38%
- Simona Halep 24%
- Andrea Petkovic 20%
- Carla Suarez Navarro 8%
22% Overall 1st Serves Unreturned on Break Points (Grade A)
This is again an improvement over global 1st serves unreturned, which was 25%, so well done here on making returns when it matters against an opponent’s strength. The most important stat here completely belongs to Serena. This is an astronomical number! In general, 47% of Serena’s first serves were unreturned, and that blew out to 60% on the biggest points of the match. She is so, so clutch. This is what makes a champion – the ability to step up when it really matters, and there is nobody that does it better than Serena. It gives her a weapon that other players simply can’t access. Look at the huge gap between her and the rest of the semi-finals – it’s Serena, then daylight.
- Serena Williams 60%
- Simona Halep 26%
- Andrea Petkovic 20%
- Carla Suarez Navarro 11%
9% Overall 2nd Serves Unreturned on Break Points (Grade A+)
This is a really good upgrade from the normal average of 14% for total 2nd serve points. Opportunities are not being wasted here at all. There is no more of a target-rich environment than attacking a second serve on break point, and as you can see by the numbers, the ladies are getting better on break points against the average – not worse. Really good to see this critical area of the game being handled so well.
- Andrea Petkovic 20%
- Serena Williams 18%
- Simona Halep 17%
- Carla Suarez Navarro 0%
Break points are the bulls-eye of tennis, and it’s very important we understand the numbers at the elite level of the game to compare at all levels.
Cheers!
Craig
