Naomi Osaka hits a forehand in 2018 US Open

Saturday, 08 September 2018 / Published in ATP Tour

10 Things to Know About Naomi Osaka

Naomi Osaka The Real Deal…

Naomi Osaka is the future. Best to get to know her now. 💡

Naomi, 20-years-old from Japan, is into her first Grand Slam final this afternoon against Serena Williams. I am realllyyyy looking forward to this one. Noami plays a fun, aggressive brand of tennis that is really enjoyable to watch.

How Naomi Osaka Made the US Open Final

There is a good chance you don’t know a lot about Naomi’s powerful game, so let’s get you caught up to speed… 🗽🎯😀.

Here’s her pathway to the 2018 US Open final.

Rd 1 def Laura Siegemund 6-3, 6-2
Rd 2 def Julia Glushko 6-2, 6-0
Rd 3 def Allaksandra Sasnovich 6-0, 6-0
Rd 4 def Aryna Sabalenka 6-3, 2-6, 6-4
Qtrs def Lesla Tsurenko 6-1, 6-1
Semi def Madison Keys 6-2, 6-4

Let’s explore 10 aspects of Naomi’s game to better understand how she got to the final, and how she can win her first Grand Slam title.

1. Own The Baseline

Naomi has played 392 points at the US Open where she has ended the point standing at the baseline. She has won 214. That means she has won 54.5% of her baseline points, which ties her for 2nd best out of 128 players in the main draw.

Baseline Points Won

Naomi = 54.4% (214/392)
Serena = 53.3% (184/345)

Naomi will absolutely be able to hold her own against Serena from the back of the court once points mature past serves and returns.

2. 1st Serve Percentage

Can you make too many 1st serves? Oh, yes you can! Consider the four leaders in this category at the 2018 US Open. They all lost their match.

1st Serves In – Leaderboard

85% – Monica Niculescu. Lost 1st Rd.
76% – Evgenlya Rodina. Lost 1st Rd.
75% – Yulia Putintseva. Lost 1st Rd.
73% – Caroline Dolehide. Lost 1st Rd.

The tournament average for 1st serves in is 62% for the women (and 59% for the men). So where are Naomi and Serena at?

Naomi = 61.2% (210/343)
Serena = 60.9% (214/351)

If you make around 70% of your first serves, it’s not really a first serve. It’s much more like another 2nd serve, as you have to take off power to make that many. Making 50% of 1st serves is not that great either. Not enough in the court to hurt the opponent. The sweetspot is right at 60%. That’s exactly where the tournament average is, and exactly where you will find Naomi & Serena.

3. 2nd Serve Points Won

Naomi has won a staggering 59.3% (79/133) of her second serve points, which places her second best for the entire tournament.

2nd Serve Points Won

Tournament Average = 45%
No 2 Naomi = 59%
No 21 Serena = 51%

This is one of the most important battles to win in a match, and Naomi is absolutely crushing this statistical area.

4. Break Points Saved

Naomi may only be 20-years-old, but her mental toughness really shines in this high-pressure area. She leads the entire field of 128 players with Break Points Saved.

Break Points Saved

Tournament Average = 55%
No. 1 Naomi = 85.7% (24/28)
No 6 Serena = 73.9% (17/23)

When push comes to shove in the the women’s final this afternoon, saving break points will be the bullseye of who will be holding the bigger trophy at the end of the match.

5. Service Games Won

This is a critical stat where you find both ladies lined up in pole position – No. 1 and No. 2.

Service Games Won

Tournament Average = 55%
No 1 Naomi = 92.1% (47/51)
No 2 Serena = 89.0% (49/55)

In many ways, tennis boils down to holding serve and breaking serve. Both ladies have done a magnificent job of taking care of their own serve, which probably means that the score line in the sets this afternoon will be close and deep – much more likely to be 6-4 or 7-5 than 6-1 or 6-2.

6. Rally Length

Both Naomi and Serena crush the ball first, and ask questions later. Their whole game is predictated on destroying their opponent with the first two times they touch the ball – which is the 0-4 shot rally length. Consider this… COMBINED, Naomi and Serena have won 208 more points than their opponents in the 0-4 rally length. In the long rallies of 9+ shots, their combined advantage is just FIVE shots.

Which begs the question… what should be be focusing on in practice? Mining the 208 point advantage, or the five shot advantage? I think you know the answer… 🎯

0-4 Shots

Naomi = 282 won / 181 lost = +101
Serena = 312 won / 205 lost = +107

5-8 Shots

Naomi = 75 won / 62 lost = +13
Serena = 80 won / 55 lost = +25

9+ Shots

Naomi = 31 won / 23 lost = +8
Serena = 19 won / 22 lost = -3

Rally Length = Percentage Break Down

Naomi

0-4 Shots = 71% (463)
5-8 Shots = 21% (137)
9+ Shots = 8% (54)

Serena

0-4 Shots = 75% (517)
5-8 Shots = 19% (135)
9+ Shots = 6% (41)

Pay close attention to who gets the upper hand in the short rallies this afternoon. That player will win the match.

7. Return Games Won

Both Naomi and Serena have won more of their opponents service games than the server has. That’s pretty remarkable!

Return Games Won

Tournament Average = 35%
T5 Naomi = 52.9% (27/51)
T5 Serena = 52.9% (27/51)

Neither player has faced such a good server in their run to the final, so this number will surely drop this afternoon.

8. Groundstroke Winners / Errors

Naomi has big weapons from the back of the court, with 29 forehand winners and 22 backhand winners coming into the final. But let’s not forget that errors always out number winners!

Naomi’s Forehand

Winners = 29 (24%)
Errors = 91 (76%)
Total = 120

Naomi’s Backhand

Winners = 22 (22%)
Errors = 79 (79%)
Total = 101

These numbers may initially look bad, but they are not. We play a sport of errors.

2018 Us Open Tournament Totals – To The Final

Winners = 35% (6244/17706)
Errors = 65% (11462/17706)

Forcing errors is the No. 1 way to win a point in our sport. Naomi can definitely make Serena uncomfortable on the other side of the net today.

9. Serve Speed

Naomi can crack a serve. She can definitely drop heat with the best of them. Here are the tournament leaders for the women.

121mph – Serena
120mph – Coco Vandeweghe
120mph – Venus
119mph – Naomi

Naomi’s fastest 1st serve of 119mph was faster than David Ferrer’s fastest of 117mph. Just sayin…

10. Average Rally Length

In Naomi’s first six matches at the 2018 US Open, her average rally length is 3.5 shots. That’s a serve in the court, then a return, then one more shot from the serve… and that’s it. We remember the long rallies, but tennis is won and lost with the short ones much more.

Average Rally Length By Round

Rd 1 def Laura Siegemund = 3.21 shots
Rd 2 def Julia Glushko = 2.86 shots
Rd 3 def Allaksandra Sasnovich = 3.91 shots
Rd 4 def Aryna Sabalenka = 3.44 shots
Qtrs def Lesla Tsurenko = 3.69 shots
Semi def Madison Keys = 3.90 shots

Don’t expect a lot of long rallies this afternoon against Serena. You will be able to count on one hand the number of rallies that reach double digits.

The practice court is clearly broken. Here’s the proof.

Points are "front loaded". By far the majority of the action, and the winning, takes place in THE FIRST 4 SHOTS. The practice court is full of long rallies. Matches are dominated by short rallies. There is a massive disconnect occurring.

We spend too much time grinding, banging balls up and down the middle of the court – that have no real benefit to winning tennis matches.

There are 3 specific rally lengths in tennis. Here is their percentage breakdown of total points.

0-4 Shots = 70%
5-8 Shots = 20%
9+ Shots = 10%

The First 4 Shots is specifically the serve, return, Serve +1 groundstroke and Return +1 groundstroke. Those are normally the shots that get practiced the least, but matter the most to winning tennis matches.

The net is an extremely high percentage place to be!

If you love playing tennis for fun, spend as much time at the baseline as you like. But if you compete – if the score matters – then you must turn your attention to the net to maximize your potential.

The “herd mentality” in tennis thinks it’s too tough to approach the net in today’s game. The conversation starts with improved string technology, more powerful rackets, and finishes with stronger, faster athletes. The herd think approaching is a relic of the past. The herd is WRONG!

AVERAGE WIN %
Baseline = 46%
Net = 66%

Data from ALL Grand Slams provides the facts about approach and volley, and the data is crystal clear – it’s immensely better than staying back at the baseline, grinding for a living.

The baseline is a tough place to create separation. Here's how to do it.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had a winning percentage from the baseline. At Wimbledon 2016, Andy Murray won the title only winning 52% of his baseline points - and he is one of the very best at it in the world!

Num3ers deeply explores the data that rules points, especially from the back of the court. Take a "deep dive" into all three rally lengths (0-4, 5-8, 9+), and winner and errors totals from the elite level of our game. The numbers will shock you!

All 4 Grand Slams

Forcing Errors = 41% Men / 37% Women
Winners = 32% Men / 29% Women
Unforced Errors = 27% Men / 34% Women

Num3ers is very much like putting a jigsaw puzzle together. It's about bringing together different data sets together to create the big picture.

Every recorded match from the 2015 Australian Open - Rd2 to the final.

There is a lot happening on a doubles court. Situations and strategies are constantly being adjusted to create mis-matches with court position. It's hard to keep track of - until now. Dou8les Num3ers is the most comprehensive analysis of doubles data in our sport. The focus is on how a point ends, and it's broken down eight ways to Sunday. Specifically, you find critical information on:

Winners rise to the #1 way a point ends (over forced & unforced errors)

- The last shot of the rally is overwhelmingly struck at the net.
- Center Window: the most important part of a doubles court to control.
- Stephen Huss: an in-depth interview on Wimbledon's Centre Court with the 2005 Wimbledon Doubles Champion.

Dou8les Num3ers leaves no stone unturned. Percentage breakdowns of how often the server or receiver hits the last shot highlight the dramatic influence of the serve. The last shot of the rally is significant, and is broken down into the following categories: volleys, overheads, passing shots, lobs and groundstrokes.

When you play a match, you actually play two matches.

When you walk out onto a tennis court, there are two matches that you are about to play. The first is during the point - a part of the match that you have spent a lot of time preparing for on the practice court. But there is a second match, that takes place in the 20 seconds between the points. This is where the mental and emotional aspects of our sport kick in.

Let's face it, there will be adversity in almost every tennis match that you play. The storm clouds are coming. How bug they are, and how long they last for, are up to you.

Between the points is very tennis specific. It provides a roadmap for the 20 seconds between the points, teaching how to handle the adversity that will surely come, and how to build on the successes that will also be present. Your mind is your biggest asset in a match, and Between the Points takes your hand off the self destruct button and stops you beating yourself.

You don't have to be good at everything, but you have got to be good at something.

You can break tennis down into four key elements - serving, returning, rallying and approaching. Each part has specific patterns of play that consistently deliver higher winning percentages than the others. No more guessing. No more opinions. All facets of our sport are covered in this exceptional product, clearly outlining what patterns to gravitate to, and how to best construct the practice court. Data comes primarily from the 2015 Australian Open.

Building Blocks

MEN = 70% errors / 30% winners
WOMEN = 74% errors / 26% winners

Forcing errors is the best way to construct a point.
You can simply break tennis down into primary and secondary patterns of play - and they are all covered here. Primary patterns include serve and return direction, forehands v backhands, and the best way to approach the net. Secondary patterns include drop shots, serve & volley and 1st volley options. If you play tournaments, this product will greatly help you simplify the singles court.

The conversation starts & ends with the Center Window.

The doubles court is like an hourglass. There are two big ends, but a small neck in the middle where all the action happens. Once you learn the power of the Center Window, where you stand to start the point will take on a lot more significance.

Doubles is a lot more about situations, with four people on the court all "dancing" with one another. Learn all the best doubles patterns, broken down for the server, returner, server's partner and the returner's partner.

Doubles Situations

The "J" - the most ideal movement for the returner's partner to attack the net.

The "V" - a better way of understanding where the server's partner should move to.

Volley Targets - there are four main areas to attack. Know which ones are higher percentage. Beach Volleyball - the idea of a "setter" and "spiker" is ideal for the doubles court.

There are certain parts of the court that the ball travels to a lot, and other low percentage areas that you really don't want to cover at all - like the alley! In general, the serving team wants to keep the ball in the middle of the court as much as possible (to help the server's partner), while the returning team benefits from hitting wider and creating more chaos in the point.

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